Potential climate change effects on the habitat of Antarctic krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat’s ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services

Commercial fishery disturbance of the global ocean biological carbon sink

Plankton drive a major sink of carbon across the global oceans. Dead plankton, their faeces and the faeces of plankton feeders, form a huge rain of carbon sinking to the seabed and deep ocean, reducing atmospheric CO2 levels and thus helping to regulate the climate. Any change in plankton communities, ecosystems or habitats will perturb this carbon sink, potentially increasing atmospheric CO2. Fishing is a major cause of ocean ecosystem disturbance affecting all trophic levels including plankton, but its potential impact on the carbon sink is unknown. As both fisheries and the carbon sink depend on plankton, there is spatial overlap of these fundamental ecosystem services. Here, we provide the first global maps of this spatial overlap. Using an upper quartile analysis, we show that 21% of the total upper ocean carbon sink (export) and 39% of fishing effort globally are concentrated in zones of intensive overlap, representing 9% of the ocean surface area. This overlap is particularly evident in the Northeast Atlantic suggesting this region should be prioritized in terms of research and conservation measures to preserve the high levels of sinking carbon. Small pelagic fish dominate catches here and globally, and their exploitation could reduce important faecal pellet carbon sinks and cause trophic cascades affecting plankton communities. There is an urgent need to recognize that, alongside climate change, fishing might be a critical influence on the ability of the ocean to sequester atmospheric CO2. Improved understanding of this influence, and how it will change with the climate, will be important for realizing a sustainable balance of the twin needs for productive fisheries and strong carbon sinks

Stepping stones towards Antarctica: Switch to southern spawning grounds explains an abrupt range shift in krill

Poleward range shifts are a global-scale response to warming, but these vary greatly among taxa and are hard to predict for individual species, localized regions or over shorter (years to decadal) timescales. Moving poleward might be easier in the Arctic than in the Southern Ocean, where evidence for range shifts is sparse and contradictory. Here, we compiled a database of larval Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba and, together with an adult database, it showed how their range shift is out of step with the pace of warming. During a 70-year period of rapid warming (1920s–1990s), distribution centres of both larvae and adults in the SW Atlantic sector remained fixed, despite warming by 0.5–1.0°C and losing sea ice. This was followed by a hiatus in surface warming and ice loss, yet during this period the distributions of krill life stages shifted greatly, by ~1000 km, to the south-west. Understanding the mechanism of such step changes is essential, since they herald system reorganizations that are hard to predict with current modelling approaches. We propose that the abrupt shift was driven by climatic controls acting on localized recruitment hotspots, superimposed on thermal niche conservatism. During the warming hiatus, the Southern Annular Mode index continued to become increasingly positive and, likely through reduced feeding success for larvae, this led to a precipitous decline in recruitment from the main reproduction hotspot along the southern Scotia Arc. This cut replenishment to the northern portion of the krill stock, as evidenced by declining density and swarm frequency. Concomitantly, a new, southern reproduction area developed after the 1990s, reinforcing the range shift despite the lack of surface warming. New spawning hotspots may provide the stepping stones needed for range shifts into polar regions, so planning of climate-ready marine protected areas should include these key areas of future habitat

The important but mysterious Antarctic krill

Antarctic krill are very important animals. They are well-known as the food of ocean giants such as blue whales, but they also feed many other animals and help to slow climate change by keeping millions of tons of carbon out of the air. Antarctic krill grow no longer than a human thumb, but together they weigh more than any other wild animal species. Although Antarctic krill live only in the cold waters of the Southern Ocean, they can live anywhere from sunlit surface waters to the darkest depths, from near the coast and under sea ice to ice-free waters far from land. In this article, we explore how their huge population and ability to live in diverse conditions make Antarctic krill important for other animals, people, and the world. We also introduce some key mysteries, such as what will happen to these animals as the climate continues to change

Stakeholder perspectives on ecosystem-based management of the Antarctic krill fishery

Information about stakeholder aspirations is a fundamental requirement for ecosystem-based management, but the detail is often elusive, and debates may focus on simplistic opposing positions. This is exemplified by the Antarctic krill fishery, which, despite a current operational catch limit equivalent to just 1% of the estimated biomass and actual annual catches much lower than this, is the subject of a high-profile debate framed around ambiguous concepts such as sustainability. Q methodology was applied to explore the detailed views of representatives of three stakeholder sectors (the fishing industry, conservation-focused non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and scientists from seven countries involved in research on the krill-based ecosystem). The analysis distinguished two clear groupings, one of which included the views of all NGO participants while the other included the views of fishing industry participants and a subset of the scientists. Key differences between the groups included the priority given to different management measures, and to continued commercial fishing. However, the results also revealed considerable overlap between viewpoints. Both groups prioritised the maintenance of ecosystem health and recognised the importance of defining management objectives. Also, neither group prioritised a decrease in catch limits. This suggests that most participants in the study agree that management should improve but do not perceive a major problem in the ecosystem's ability to support current catch levels. Cooperation to identify shared management objectives based on stakeholder aspirations for the ecosystem might enhance progress, whereas polarised discussions about preferred management measures or ambiguous concepts are likely to impede progress

Impacts of rising sea temperatures on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future

Predatory impact of the myctophid fish community on zooplankton in the Scotia Sea (Southern Ocean)

Myctophids are the most abundant mesopelagic fishes in the Southern Ocean, although their trophic role within the predominantly krill-based food web in regions south of the Antarctic Polar Front (APF) is poorly resolved. This study therefore examined the diets of 10 species of myctophid fishes: Electrona antarctica, E. carlsbergi, Gymnoscopelus braueri, G. fraseri, G. nicholsi, Krefftichthys anderssoni, Protomyctophum bolini, P. tenisoni, P. choriodon and Nannobrachium achirus, in the Scotia Sea, together with their predatory impact on the underlying zooplankton community. Myctophids and their prey were sampled in different seasons by scientific nets deployed across the Scotia Sea from the sea-ice zone to the APF. Based on the percentage index of relative importance, myctophids had high overlap in their diets, although the data indicate dietary specialisation in some species. There was also a distinct switch in diet, from copepods to euphausiids and amphipods, with increasing myctophid size. Myctophid predation impacted daily copepod production by between 0.01 and 5%, with Calanus simillimus being most impacted. Total annual consumption of copepods was around 1.5 million t (Mt) per year. All myctophids preyed upon the euphausiid Thysanoessa spp., consuming ~12% of its daily productivity and around 4 Mt per year. However, only larger myctophid species preyed upon Antarctic krill Euphausia superba, consuming 2% of its daily productivity, which could amount to as much as 17 Mt per year. Themisto gaudichaudii was also an important dietary component, with 4% of its daily productivity being consumed, amounting to around 2 Mt per year. This study demonstrates that myctophids link secondary productivity to higher predators both through krill-dependent and krill-independent trophic pathways

Myctophid fish (Family Myctophidae) are central consumers in the food web of the Scotia Sea (Southern Ocean)

Myctophid fish are the most abundant and diverse mesopelagic fishes in the Southern Ocean. They are a conduit of energy between primary consumers and higher marine predators, and between the upper surface layers and the mesopelagic depths. However, there remain major uncertainties about their ecology, particularly regarding their role in Southern Ocean food webs, which are often regarded as dominated by Antarctic krill in waters south of the Antarctic Polar Front. Limited data on the feeding ecology of myctophids has made it difficult to assess the importance of myctophids as consumers of krill and how they fit in the traditional view of a krill-dominated system (diatom-krill-higher predator). We provide a new assessment of the role of myctophids in Southern Ocean food webs using information from recent trophodynamic studies of myctophids conducted in the Scotia Sea, one of the most productive regions of the Southern Ocean and a region that sustains both major populations of higher predators (sea birds, seals, whales) and important commercial fisheries (krill, toothfish and mackerel icefish). Collectively, these data show that myctophids have a central role in Southern Ocean food webs as both predators and prey. Large myctophid species are prevalent consumers of krill throughout their distributional range and in different seasons in the Scotia Sea. Moreover, best estimates of both myctophid and higher predator consumption of krill to date indicate that large myctophids are the greatest predators of krill in this region, consuming almost as much krill as all other vertebrate predators of krill. Nevertheless, there are several smaller myctophid species that do not eat krill, instead consuming copepods and other small euphausiids. Myctophids therefore link primary producers to higher predators through both krill-dependent and krill-independent trophic pathways, emphasizing their importance in regional food webs. Consequently, myctophid-based trophic pathways are unlikely to be exempt from the direct consequences of a redistribution and/or reduction in krill population biomass. The extent to which myctophids can maintain food web stability and sustain higher predator populations during periods of prolonged reductions in krill abundance is considered further

Trophic structuring of modularity alters energy flow through marine food webs

Food web interactions govern how ecosystems respond to climate change and biodiversity loss. Modularity, where subgroups of species interact more often with each other than with species outside their subgroup, is a key structural feature which has been linked to food web stability. We sought to address the lack of understanding of how modularity varies among ecosystems by comparing the structure of four highly resolved marine food webs and the importance of functional traits for predicting module membership. Modules in two offshore networks were partitioned largely by trophic level, creating an interdependence among them, whereas modules in two semi-enclosed bays were generally separated into energy channels with less trophic separation and containing distinct basal resources, providing greater redundancy in the flow of energy through the network. Foraging habitat and mobility predicted module membership in all networks, whilst body mass and foraging strategy also differentiated modules in the offshore and bay ecosystems, respectively. Environmental heterogeneity may be a key factor driving the differences in modularity and the relative importance of functional traits for predicting module membership. Our results indicate that, in addition to overall network modularity, the trophic structure of modules within food webs should be considered when making inferences about ecosystem stability

Do krill fisheries compete with macaroni penguins? Spatial overlap in prey consumption and catches during winter

Aim To infer the potential for competition between an important Antarctic predator, the macaroni penguin, and the krill fishery by examining the spatial overlap in prey consumption and catches. Location Scotia Sea and adjacent waters. Methods The study focused on the winter period as this is the only time of the year when spatio-temporal overlaps between macaroni penguin foraging and the krill fishery can occur. We tracked adult macaroni penguins from a colony in South Georgia using global location sensors to determine winter distribution, and bioenergetics models to calculate the biomass of food consumed during the winter period. We combined these to produce a surface of the tonnes of krill consumed, which could be compared directly with the spatial distribution of the tonnes of krill caught by the fishery. Results Adult macaroni penguins from South Georgia consumed 135,826 tonnes of krill (95% CIs: 83,446–188,140) during the winter, which is similar to the 98,431 tonnes caught by fisheries over the same period. However, macaroni penguins had a very wide pelagic distribution across the Scotia Sea, whereas the fishery was restricted to three small areas on shelf edges, such that their spatial overlap was negligible. The proportion of the estimated krill stock taken by macaroni penguins and the krill fishery was small at both the scale of the Scotia Sea and the local areas within which the fisheries operate. Main conclusions Competition between macaroni penguins and the krill fishery is low under current management and far less than that among the various species of krill predators that occur in the Scotia Sea. Our method will allow quantification of changes in competition between macaroni penguins and krill fisheries should the latter expand in the future, and provides a framework for assessing predator-fishery competition in other systems