Exploring the origin of Antarctic precipitation for an improved climatic interpretation of ice-core records

To refine moisture-source and site-temperature reconstructions inferred from measurements from ice cores, we must understand moisture provenance from which Antarctic precipitation originates. Here, we discuss our current understanding of Antarctic precipitation origins and some recent modeling developments

Reconstructing the Antarctic ice-sheet shape at the Last Glacial Maximum using ice-core data

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the Earth’s largest store of frozen water; understanding how it changed in the past allows us to improve projections of how it, and sea levels, may change. Here, we use previous AIS reconstructions, water isotope ratios from ice cores, and simulator predictions of the relationship between the ice-sheet shape and isotope ratios to create a model of the AIS at the Last Glacial Maximum. We develop a prior distribution that captures expert opinion about the AIS, generate a designed ensemble of potential shapes, run these through the climate model HadCM3, and train a Gaussian process emulator of the link between ice-sheet shape and isotope ratios. To make the analysis computationally tractable, we develop a preferential principal component method that allows us to reduce the dimension of the problem in a way that accounts for the differing importance we place in reconstructions, allowing us to create a basis that reflects prior uncertainty. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution, finding shapes for which HadCM3 predicts isotope ratios closely matching observations from ice cores. The posterior distribution allows us to quantify the uncertainty in the reconstructed shape, a feature missing in other analyses

Snow petrel stomach-oil deposits as a new biological archive of Antarctic sea ice

Where snow petrels forage is predominantly a function of sea ice. They spit stomach oil in defence, and accumulated deposits at nesting sites are providing new opportunities to reconstruct their diet, and, in turn, the sea-ice environment over past millennia

Analysing the timing of peak warming and minimum winter sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean during MIS 5e

The peak of the Last Interglacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130–116 ka), provides a valuable ‘process analogue’ for validating the climatic feedbacks and forcings likely active under future anthropogenic warming. Reconstructing exact timings of MIS 5e peak warming and minimum winter sea-ice extent (WSIE) throughout the Southern Ocean (SO) will help to identify the interactions and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Here we present a new MIS 5e marine sediment record from the SW Atlantic sector together with 28 published core records (chronologies standardised to the LR04 δ18O benthic stack; Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) to investigate the timing and sequence of minimum WSIE and peak warming across the SO. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) peaked earliest in the Indian (20oE–150oE) and Atlantic (70oW–20oE) sectors, at 128.7 ± 0.8 ka and 127.4 ± 1.1 ka respectively, followed by the Pacific sector (150oE–70oW) at 124.9 ± 3.6 ka. The interval of minimum WSIE for all three sectors occurred within the period from 129–125 ka, consistent with the ∼128 ka sea salt flux minimum in Antarctic ice cores. Minimum WSIE appears to have coincided with peak July insolation at 55 oS, suggesting it could be linked with the mildest winters. The reduced WSIE during MIS 5e would have likely reduced the production of deep- and bottom water masses, inhibiting storage of CO2 in the abyssal ocean and lowering nutrient availability in SO surface waters. Examining a wide spatial range of proxy records for MIS 5e is a critical step forward in understanding climatic interactions and processes that will be active under warmer global temperatures

Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, millennial-scale climate oscillations between stadial and interstadial conditions (of up to 10–15 ∘C in amplitude at high northern latitudes), occurred throughout the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3; 27.8–59.4 ka) period. The climate modelling community up to now has not been able to answer the question of whether our climate models are too stable to simulate D–O events. To address this, this paper lays the ground-work for a MIS3 D–O protocol for general circulation models which are used in the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. We review the following: D–O terminology, community progress on simulating D–O events in these IPCC-class models (processes and published examples), and evidence about the boundary conditions under which D–O events occur. We find that no model exhibits D–O-like behaviour under pre-industrial conditions. Some, but not all, models exhibit D–O-like oscillations under MIS3 and/or full glacial conditions. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet configurations are crucial. However most models have not run simulations of long enough duration to be sure which models show D–O-like behaviour, under either MIS3 or full glacial states. We propose a MIS3 baseline protocol at 34 ka, which features low obliquity values, medium to low MIS3 greenhouse gas values, and the intermediate ice sheet configuration, which our review suggests are most conducive to D–O-like behaviour in models. We also provide a protocol for a second freshwater (Heinrich-event-preconditioned) experiment, since previous work suggests that this variant may be helpful in preconditioning a state in models which is conducive to D–O events. This review provides modelling groups investigating MIS3 D–O oscillations with a common framework, which is aimed at (1) maximising the chance of the occurrence of D–O-like events in the simulations, (2) allowing more precise model–data evaluation, and (3) providing an adequate central point for modellers to explore model stability

Reconciling the changes in atmospheric-methane sources and sinks between the Last Glacial Maximum and the pre-industrial era

We know from the ice record that the concentration of atmospheric methane, [CH4], at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was roughly half that in the pre-industrial era (PI), buthow much of the difference was source-driven, and how much was sink-driven, remains uncertain. Recent developments include: a higher estimate of the LGM-PI change in methane emissions from wetlands―the dominant, natural methane source; and the possible recycling of OH consumed in isoprene oxidation―the principal methane sink. Here, in view of these developments, we use an atmospheric chemistry-transport model to re-examine the main factors affecting OH during this period: changes in air temperature and emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds from vegetation. We find that their net effect was negligible(with and without an OH recycling mechanism), implyingthe change in [CH4] was almost entirely source driven―a conclusion that, though subject to significant uncertainties,can be reconciled with recent methane source estimates

Reconstructing Antarctic winter sea-ice extent during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e

MIS 5e (130-116 ka) is an important ‘process analogue’ for understanding the high latitude climatic feedbacks and forcings active under future anthropogenic warming. Antarctic sea-ice extent is a critical component of the Earth’s climate system through its impact on global albedo and Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and ocean circulation. Published marine sediment core records are located too far north to accurately constrain the timing and extent of the winter sea-ice (WSI) minimum during MIS 5e (Chadwick et al., 2020) and researchers/models have therefore assumed that this minimum occurs synchronously with peak warming in Antarctic ice core records (Holloway et al., 2017). This study presents new reconstructions of Southern Ocean (SO) WSI extent for MIS 5e based on the diatom assemblage records in marine sediment cores. These records have robust age models, which allow for the different timings and patterns of WSI retreat throughout the SO to be examined. In particular, the difference between the relatively stable WSI extent in the Pacific sector of the SO and the more dynamic WSI extent in the Atlantic sector of the SO. Using sediment cores located south of 55 o S creates a novel synthesis for assessing the evidence for the considerable MIS 5e WSI reduction predicted by model simulations (Holloway et al., 2017)