Non-scale endogenous growth effects of subsidies for exporters

We built a general equilibrium endogenous growth model in which final goods are produced either in the relatively skilled-labour intensive exports sector or in the relatively unskilled-labour intensive domestic sector. We show that, by affecting the technological-knowledge bias, subsidies explain the simultaneous rise in the exports sector, the skill wage premium and the economic growth rate. Then, we use a Portuguese longitudinal database (1996-2003) and implement a propensity score matching approach to shed light upon the causal nexus between production-related subsidies and exports. Our empirical results seem to prove the theoretical predictions: subsides generate the rise in the wage premium of exporters and the increase in the relative size of export sector, even if no impact of subsidies is found in the capacity of enhancing new exporters.Subsidies, Exports, Scale-invariant growth, Wages

The financial sustainability of Microcredit in Portugal

Microcredit and microfinance emerged in the 1970’s in Bangladesh and other developing countries and expanded rapidly worldwide as a business model financially sustainable and able to fight poverty and social exclusion. Empirical evidence confirms microcredit ability to mitigate poverty but its financial sustainability is controversial. Using 2006-2009 Portuguese micro-level data, we estimate the failure rate of Portuguese micro-credit projects as 20,6%/year that, to be financially sustainable, would require a real interest rate by 25%/year. Using a territorial variable on a discrete Cox proportional hazard model with censured data, we estimate that the failure rate of those micro-credit projects located in the worst-case NUTS II Portuguese regions (Alentejo and Centro) and promoted by lower schooling people is significantly higher than best-case.Microcredit, Firms failure rate, Poverty, Financial sustainability

Finite Sample Performance in CointegrationAnalysis of Nonlinear Time Series with LongMemory

Nonlinear functions of multivariate financial time series can exhibit longmemory and fractional cointegration. However, tools for analysingthese phenomena have principally been justified under assumptionsthat are invalid in this setting. Determination of asymptotic theoryunder more plausible assumptions can be complicated and lengthy.We discuss these issues and present a Monte Carlo study, showingthat asymptotic theory should not necessarily be expected to provide agood approximation to finite-sample behaviour.Fractional cointegration, memory estimation,stochastic volatility.

Fractional Cointegration In StochasticVolatility Models

Asset returns are frequently assumed to be determined by one or more commonfactors. We consider a bivariate factor model, where the unobservable commonfactor and idiosyncratic errors are stationary and serially uncorrelated, but havestrong dependence in higher moments. Stochastic volatility models for the latentvariables are employed, in view of their direct application to asset pricing models.Assuming the underlying persistence is higher in the factor than in the errors, afractional cointegrating relationship can be recovered by suitable transformation ofthe data. We propose a narrow band semiparametric estimate of the factorloadings, which is shown to be consistent with a rate of convergence, and its finitesample properties are investigated in a Monte Carlo experiment.Fractional cointegration, stochastic volatility, narrow band leastsquares, semiparametric analysis.

Economic performance and international trade engagement: the case of Portuguese manufacturing firms

By combining economic and financial data for Portuguese manufacturing firms with data of their exports and imports, we uncover some aspects of the relationship between international trade engagement and firms’ performance. In line with recent theoretical and empirical developments in the international trade literature: (i) we testify that Portuguese international trade is highly concentrated, especially on the import side, and both in inter- and intra-sector terms; (ii) we corroborate previous studies and theses according to which two-way traders outperform only importers, only exporters and above all domestic firms; (iii) we find that the greater the diversification of markets and goods (especially with regard to imports) the better the performance achieved by internationalized firms; (iv) we also present evidence that destination markets, for exports, and, origin markets, for imports, are also important in explaining the performance of firms.International trade, Firm performance, Diversification

Which Portuguese Manufacturing Firms Learn by Exporting?

Using a longitudinal database (1996-2003) at the plant level, this paper aims to shed light on the causal nexus between international trade engagement and productivity in Portugal. We analyse in particular the learning-by-exporting hypotheses. In line with recent empirical literature, we apply mainly the Propensity Score Matching and a differences-in-differences estimator. In post-entry years we find a higher growth of labour productivity and total factor productivity for new exporting firms when compared to firms that, although having similar characteristics, have decided not to begin exporting in that year. Moreover, in an attempt to uncover the channels through which the learning effects are driven to new exporters, we applied the same methodology to some sub-samples. We found that learning effects are higher for new exporters that are also importers or start importing at the same time. Other important factors influencing that learning ability are found in firms that export to more developed markets, in those that achieve a certain threshold of export intensity and particularly for those firms that belong to sectors in which Portugal is at a comparative disadvantageExports, Imports, Self-Selection, Learning-by-exporting, Matching

Do Portuguese manufacturing firms self select to exports?

Using a longitudinal database (1996-2003) at the plant level, this paper aims to shed light, on the thesis that most productive domestic firms self select to export markets. Self selection and learning by exporting are two non-mutually exclusive theses that try to explain the high correlation between international trade involvement of firms and their superior performance, relative to domestic firms. In general, we find evidence of a self-selection to exports. However, there is a significant heterogeneity according to the destination of sales, to firms’ import status before exporting and to the specificities of sectors firms’ belong to.Exports, Imports, Self selection

Learning-by-exporting: what we know and what we would like to know

This paper revises the thesis that exporting firms learn to be more innovative and efficient as they have contact with certain information flows from their foreign activity (e.g., from buyers, suppliers or competitors). The paper begins by exploring the connections between two distinct concepts: Self-Selection (of more efficient firms into exports) and Learning-by-Exporting. The study then proceeds with a comparative analysis of the most recent literature and presents common facts and evidence, as well as key issues still open to debate. Learning-by-Exporting should be measured directly using firms´ innovative performance. However, given the lack of suitable data on firms’ innovative activities most studies have followed an indirect approach, using productivity measures. Several methodologies have been employed to estimate Total Factor Productivity and to test the Learning-by-Exporting hypothesis, but so far no final consensus has been reached on the best way to do it.Learning-by-exporting, self selection, total factor productivity

Which Portuguese firms are more innovative? The importance of multinationals and exporters

In this study we test the trade Global Engagement hypothesis in which firms more globally engaged – either multinationals or exporters – are more innovative. The test is applied to 4818 Portuguese enterprises´ data for the period 2002-2004 through the use of the fourth Portuguese Community Innovation Survey. We estimated several Knowledge Production Functions assuming that knowledge outputs result from the combination of some knowledge inputs with the flow of ideas coming from existing stock of knowledge. We found that more internationally exposed firms create more knowledge output, than their domestic counterparts; indeed, more globalized firms use more inputs and have the opportunity to use a larger stock of knowledge. Notwithstand, the observed superiority of more internationally exposed firms is also the result of their globalized nature, not directly connected with knowledge inputs or information flows.Multinational firms, exporting, knowledge-production functions, Portugal

Economic performance and international trade engagement: the case of Portuguese manufacturing firms

By combining economic and financial data for Portuguese manufacturing firms with data on their exports and imports, we uncover some aspects of the relationship between international trade engagement and firms’ performance. In line with recent theoretical and empirical developments in the international trade literature: (i) we testify that Portuguese international trade is highly concentrated, especially on the import side, and both in inter- and intra-sector terms; (ii) we corroborate previous studies and theses according to which two-way traders outperform only importers, only exporters and above all domestic firms; (iii) we find that the greater the diversification of markets and goods (especially with regard to imports), the better the performance achieved by internationalised firms; (iv) we notice that the higher the intensity of international trade of firms (especially imports), the better the performance of firms; (v) we also present evidence that destination markets, for exports, and, origin markets, for imports, are also important in explaining firm performance.International trade, Firm performance, Diversification