Prognostic indicators in the World Health Organization’s algorithm for seriously ill HIV-infected inpatients with suspected tuberculosis

Background: Criteria for the 2007 WHO algorithm for diagnosing tuberculosis among HIV-infected seriously ill patients are the presence of one or more danger signs (respiratory rate > 30/min, heart rate > 120/min, temperature > 39 °C, and being unable to walk unaided) and cough ≥ 14 days. Determining predictors of poor outcomes among HIV-infected inpatients presenting with WHO danger signs could result in improved treatment and diagnostic algorithms. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of inpatients presenting with any duration of cough and WHO danger signs to two regional hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality up to 56 days post-discharge, and the secondary outcome a composite of any one of: hospital admission for > 7 days, died in hospital, transfer to a tertiary level or tuberculosis hospital. We frst assessed the WHO danger signs as predictors of poor outcomes, then assessed the added value of other variables selected a priori for their ability to predict mortality in common respiratory opportunistic infections (CD4 count, body mass index (BMI), being on antiretroviral therapy (ART), hypotension, and confusion) by comparing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of the two multivariate models. Results: 484 participants were enrolled, median age 36, 66% women, 53% had tuberculosis confrmed on culture. The 56-day mortality was 13.2%. Inability to walk unaided, low BMI, low CD4 count, and being on ART were independently associated with poor outcomes. The multivariate model of the WHO danger signs showed a ROC AUC of 0.649 (95% CI 0.582–0.717) for predicting 56-day mortality, which improved to ROC AUC of 0.740 (95% CI 0.681–0.800; p = 0.004 for comparison between the two ROC AUCs) with the multivariate model including the a priori selected variables. Findings were similar in sub-analyses of participants with culture-positive tuberculosis and with cough duration ≥ 14 days. Conclusion: The study design prevented a rigorous evaluation of the prognostic value of the WHO danger signs. Our prognostic model could result in improved algorithms, but needs to be validated

Vikela Ekhaya: A Novel, Community-Based, Tuberculosis Contact Management Program in a High Burden Setting

BACKGROUND: The prevention of tuberculosis (TB) in child contacts of TB cases and people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a public health priority, but global access to TB preventive therapy (TPT) remains low. In 2019, we implemented Vikela Ekhaya, a novel community-based TB contact management program in Eswatini designed to reduce barriers to accessing TPT. METHODS: Vikela Ekhaya offered differentiated TB and HIV testing for household contacts of TB cases by using mobile contact management teams to screen contacts, assess their TPT eligibility, and initiate and monitor TPT adherence in participants\u27 homes. RESULTS: In total, 945 contacts from 244 households were screened for TB symptoms; 72 (8%) contacts reported TB symptoms, and 5 contacts (0.5%) were diagnosed with prevalent TB. A total of 322 of 330 (98%) eligible asymptomatic household contacts initiated TPT. Of 322 contacts initiating TPT, 248 children initiated 3 months of isoniazid and rifampicin and 74 children and adults living with HIV initiated 6 months of isoniazid; 298 (93%) completed TPT. In clustered logistic regression analyses, unknown HIV status (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.7, P = .023), positive HIV status (aOR 21.1, P = .001), urban setting (aOR 5.6, P = .006), and low income (aOR 5.9, P = .001) predicted loss from the cascade of care among TPT-eligible contacts. CONCLUSION: Vikela Ekhaya demonstrated that community-based TB household contact management is a feasible, acceptable, and successful strategy for TB screening and TPT delivery. The results of this study support the development of novel, differentiated, community-based interventions for TB prevention and control

Association of diabetes, smoking, and alcohol use with subclinical-to-symptomatic spectrum of tuberculosis in 16 countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis of national tuberculosis prevalence surveys

Summary Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and NCD risk factors, such as smoking, increase the risk for tuberculosis (TB). Data are scarce on the risk of prevalent TB associated with these factors in the context of population-wide systematic screening and on the association between NCDs and NCD risk factors with different manifestations of TB, where ∼50% being asymptomatic but bacteriologically positive (subclinical). We did an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of national and sub-national TB prevalence surveys to synthesise the evidence on the risk of symptomatic and subclinical TB in people with NCDs or risk factors, which could help countries to plan screening activities. Methods In this systematic review and IPD meta-analysis, we identified eligible prevalence surveys in low-income and middle-income countries that reported at least one NCD (e.g., diabetes) or NCD risk factor (e.g., smoking, alcohol use) through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and by searching in Medline and Embase from January 1, 2000 to August 10, 2021. The search was updated on March 23, 2023. We performed a one-stage meta-analysis using multivariable multinomial models. We estimated the proportion of and the odds ratio for subclinical and symptomatic TB compared to people without TB for current smoking, alcohol use, and self-reported diabetes, adjusted for age and gender. Subclinical TB was defined as microbiologically confirmed TB without symptoms of current cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss and symptomatic TB with at least one of these symptoms. We assessed heterogeneity using forest plots and I2 statistic. Missing variables were imputed through multi-level multiple imputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021272679). Findings We obtained IPD from 16 national surveys out of 21 national and five sub-national surveys identified (five in Asia and 11 in Africa, N = 740,815). Across surveys, 15.1%–56.7% of TB were subclinical (median: 38.1%). In the multivariable model, current smoking was associated with both subclinical (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.27–2.40) and symptomatic TB (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.34–1.66). Self-reported diabetes was associated with symptomatic TB (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.17–2.40) but not with subclinical TB (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.55–1.55). For alcohol drinking ≥ twice per week vs no alcohol drinking, the estimates were imprecise (OR 1.59, 95% CI 0.70–3.62) for subclinical TB and OR 1.43, 95% CI 0.59–3.46 for symptomatic TB). For the association between current smoking and symptomatic TB, I2 was high (76.5% (95% CI 62.0–85.4), while the direction of the point estimates was consistent except for three surveys with wide CIs. Interpretation Our findings suggest that current smokers are more likely to have both symptomatic and subclinical TB. These individuals can, therefore, be prioritised for intensified screening, such as the use of chest X-ray in the context of community-based screening. People with self-reported diabetes are also more likely to have symptomatic TB, but the association is unclear for subclinical TB

Association of diabetes, smoking, and alcohol use with subclinical-to-symptomatic spectrum of tuberculosis in 16 countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis of national tuberculosis prevalence surveys

Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and NCD risk factors, such as smoking, increase the risk for tuberculosis (TB). Data are scarce on the risk of prevalent TB associated with these factors in the context of population-wide systematic screening and on the association between NCDs and NCD risk factors with different manifestations of TB, where ∼50% being asymptomatic but bacteriologically positive (subclinical). We did an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of national and sub-national TB prevalence surveys to synthesise the evidence on the risk of symptomatic and subclinical TB in people with NCDs or risk factors, which could help countries to plan screening activities. Methods In this systematic review and IPD meta-analysis, we identified eligible prevalence surveys in low-income and middle-income countries that reported at least one NCD (e.g., diabetes) or NCD risk factor (e.g., smoking, alcohol use) through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and by searching in Medline and Embase from January 1, 2000 to August 10, 2021. The search was updated on March 23, 2023. We performed a one-stage meta-analysis using multivariable multinomial models. We estimated the proportion of and the odds ratio for subclinical and symptomatic TB compared to people without TB for current smoking, alcohol use, and self-reported diabetes, adjusted for age and gender. Subclinical TB was defined as microbiologically confirmed TB without symptoms of current cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss and symptomatic TB with at least one of these symptoms. We assessed heterogeneity using forest plots and I2 statistic. Missing variables were imputed through multi-level multiple imputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021272679). Findings We obtained IPD from 16 national surveys out of 21 national and five sub-national surveys identified (five in Asia and 11 in Africa, N = 740,815). Across surveys, 15.1%–56.7% of TB were subclinical (median: 38.1%). In the multivariable model, current smoking was associated with both subclinical (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.27–2.40) and symptomatic TB (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.34–1.66). Self-reported diabetes was associated with symptomatic TB (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.17–2.40) but not with subclinical TB (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.55–1.55). For alcohol drinking ≥ twice per week vs no alcohol drinking, the estimates were imprecise (OR 1.59, 95% CI 0.70–3.62) for subclinical TB and OR 1.43, 95% CI 0.59–3.46 for symptomatic TB). For the association between current smoking and symptomatic TB, I2 was high (76.5% (95% CI 62.0–85.4), while the direction of the point estimates was consistent except for three surveys with wide CIs. Interpretation Our findings suggest that current smokers are more likely to have both symptomatic and subclinical TB. These individuals can, therefore, be prioritised for intensified screening, such as the use of chest X-ray in the context of community-based screening. People with self-reported diabetes are also more likely to have symptomatic TB, but the association is unclear for subclinical TB

Tobacco smoking clusters in households affected by tuberculosis in an individual participant data meta-analysis of national tuberculosis prevalence surveys: Time for household-wide interventions?

Tuberculosis (TB) and non-communicable diseases (NCD) share predisposing risk factors. TB-associated NCD might cluster within households affected with TB requiring shared prevention and care strategies. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of national TB prevalence surveys to determine whether NCD cluster in members of households with TB. We identified eligible surveys that reported at least one NCD or NCD risk factor through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and searching in Medline and Embase from 1 January 2000 to 10 August 2021, which was updated on 23 March 2023. We compared the prevalence of NCD and their risk factors between people who do not have TB living in households with at least one person with TB (members of households with TB), and members of households without TB. We included 16 surveys (n = 740,815) from Asia and Africa. In a multivariable model adjusted for age and gender, the odds of smoking was higher among members of households with TB (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.23; 95% CI: 1.11–1.38), compared with members of households without TB. The analysis did not find a significant difference in the prevalence of alcohol drinking, diabetes, hypertension, or BMI between members of households with and without TB. Studies evaluating household-wide interventions for smoking to reduce its dual impact on TB and NCD may be warranted. Systematically screening for NCD using objective diagnostic methods is needed to understand the actual burden of NCD and inform comprehensive interventions

Leveraging tuberculosis case relative locations to enhance case detection and linkage to care in Swaziland

Abstract Background In Swaziland, as in many high HIV/TB burden settings, there is not information available regarding the household location of TB cases for identifying areas of increased TB incidence, limiting the development of targeted interventions. Data from “Butimba”, a TB REACH active case finding project, was re-analyzed to provide insight into the location of TB cases surrounding Mbabane, Swaziland. Objective The project aimed to identify geographical areas with high TB burdens to inform active case finding efforts. Methods Butimba implemented household contact tracing; obtaining landmark based, informal directions, to index case homes, defined here as relative locations. The relative locations were matched to census enumeration areas (known location reference areas) using the Microsoft Excel Fuzzy Lookup function. Of 403 relative locations, an enumeration area reference was detected in 388 (96%). TB cases in each census enumeration area and the active case finders in each Tinkhundla, a local governmental region, were mapped using the geographic information system, QGIS 2.16. Results Urban Tinkhundla predictably accounted for most cases; however, after adjusting for population, the highest density of cases was found in rural Tinkhundla. There was no correlation between the number of active case finders currently assigned to the 7 Tinkhundla surrounding Mbabane and the total number of TB cases (Spearman rho = −0.57, p = 0.17) or the population adjusted TB cases (Spearman rho = 0.14, p = 0.75) per Tinkhundla. Discussion Reducing TB incidence in high-burden settings demands novel analytic approaches to study TB case locations. We demonstrated the feasibility of linking relative locations to more precise geographical areas, enabling data-driven guidance for National Tuberculosis Programs’ resource allocation. In collaboration with the Swazi National Tuberculosis Control Program, this analysis highlighted opportunities to better align the active case finding national strategy with the TB disease burden

BUTIMBA: Intensifying the Hunt for Child TB in Swaziland through Household Contact Tracing

<div><p>Background</p><p>Limited data exists to inform contact tracing guidelines in children and HIV-affected populations. We evaluated the yield and additionality of household contact and source case investigations in Swaziland, a TB/HIV high-burden setting, while prioritizing identification of childhood TB.</p><p>Methods</p><p>In partnership with 7 local TB clinics, we implemented standardized contact tracing of index cases (IC) receiving TB treatment. Prioritizing child contacts and HIV-affected households, screening officers screened contacts for TB symptoms and to identify risk factors associated with TB. We ascertained factors moderating the yield of contact tracing and measured the impact of our program by additional notifications.</p><p>Results</p><p>From March 2013 to November 2015, 3,258 ICs (54% bacteriologically confirmed; 70% HIV-infected; 85% adults) were enrolled leading to evaluation of 12,175 contacts (median age 18 years, IQR 24–42; 45% children; 9% HIV-infected). Among contacts, 196 TB cases (56% bacteriologically confirmed) were diagnosed resulting in a program yield of 1.6% for all forms of TB. The number needed to screen (NNS) to identify a bacteriologically confirmed TB case or all forms TB case traced from a child IC <5 years was respectively 62% and 40% greater than the NNS for tracing from an adult IC. In year one, we demonstrated a 32% increase in detection of bacteriologically confirmed child TB. Contacts were more likely to have TB if <5 years (OR = 2.0), HIV-infected (OR = 4.9), reporting ≥1 TB symptoms (OR = 7.7), and sharing a bed (OR = 1.7) or home (OR = 1.4) with the IC. There was a 1.4 fold increased chance of detecting a TB case in households known to be HIV-affected.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>Contact tracing prioritizing children is not only feasible in a TB/HIV high-burden setting but contributes to overall case detection. Our findings support WHO guidelines prioritizing contact tracing among children and HIV-infected populations while highlighting potential to integrate TB and HIV case finding.</p></div