The best of both worlds? Evaluating the campaign behaviour of dual candidates

The conventional wisdom of electoral politics suggests that parliamentary candidates who run for office under candidate-centred mechanisms tend to conduct more intense and personalised campaigns than those who run under party-centred ones. But what about the campaigns put in place by candidates who simultaneously run under both systems? Using original data from the 2016 Welsh Candidate Study, this article shows that dual candidates’ campaign behaviour is distinct from that of their constituency and regional list counterparts. Their campaign effort tends to be more intense as well as complex than that put in place by candidates who stand in one tier only. In addition, the findings show that dual candidates’ campaign messages tend to be more personalised than those of regional list candidates, but less personalised than those of constituency candidates. These results indicate that the electoral campaigns put in place by dual candidates combine elements of campaigning under candidate-centred and party-centred electoral systems

What does it take to get elected in a post-communist democracy? Explaining the success and failure of parliamentary candidates in Estonia

The literature on post-communist democracies has traditionally suggested that organisational strength is considerably less important for electoral success than extensive media-based campaigns. Recent studies on party-level electoral dynamics, however, indicate that this might not be the case any longer. Building on these insights, this study goes beyond the party-level analyses of electoral success and failure by focusing on the electoral fortunes of individual candidates in a post-communist democracy. Using original data from the 2011 Estonian Candidate Survey, this paper looks at the comparative impact of candidates’ campaign spending and the strength of their local party organisation, alongside other potentially relevant characteristics, on their likelihood of getting elected and vote share. The findings suggest that candidates’ electoral performance in Estonia is still first and foremost shaped by their own campaign spending. In addition, I find evidence that candidates fare better if they have prior local-level and national-level political experience, conduct more personalised campaigns, and are positioned higher up on their party’s district-level list

The Dynamics of Voting Behaviour in the Post-2004 European Parliament

The European Parliament offers a unique setting for studying the behaviour of elected representatives and the way they interpret their mandate. In contrast to national legislatures, where legislators face domestic geographical and partisan pressures, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) must balance both national and supranational loyalties. While existing studies on MEPs’ parliamentary behaviour provide useful insight into the voting dynamics in the European Parliament, few scholars address the heterogeneity of the post-2004 parliaments, and how it shapes the approach of contemporary MEPs to representation in the European Parliament. This dissertation uses the changes in the European Parliament’s institutional make-up that occurred over the last decade to explore MEPs’ voting behaviour in the Sixth and Seventh Parliaments. In particular, I focus on how the diversity among MEPs and the variety of voting procedures used in the European Parliament affect MEPs’ voting behaviour. Combining post-2004 MEPs’ individual-level roll call voting data and original MEP survey data, I explore the following questions: (i) How likely are post-2004 MEPs to vote with their European Parliament party group, national delegation, and national party delegation? (ii) How do individual- and contextual-level characteristics shape the voting behaviour of MEPs? (iii) How is MEPs’ approach to parliamentary representation influenced by the choice of voting procedure? The findings indicate that national parties remain post-2004 MEPs’ primary principal, and that MEPs continue to hold their secondary loyalty to their supranational party group. I also find that diversity among MEPs shapes how they approach parliamentary representation; individual- and contextual-level characteristics, such as MEPs’ role perception and the degrees of ideological diversity within the parliamentary sub-groups, provide incentives for MEPs to alter their voting behaviour. Finally, a noteworthy voting procedure effect is visible within MEPs’ self-perceived approach to parliamentary representation. The findings suggest that a univocal interpretation of the European mandate may be misplaced given that significant systematic differences exist, both across MEPs and voting procedures, in post-2004 voting dynamics

Different visions of representation among voters and candidates in Wales

Whose opinions should Assembly Members prioritise when carrying out their duties in the Welsh Assembly? Here, Siim Trumm (University of Nottingham) compares the views of voters and candidates on how AMs should vote when confronted with competing pressures. He finds that candidates are more likely to think that it is acceptable for AMs to discard the views of their voters in favour of their own views or those of their party than voters

The ‘new’ wave of populist right-wing parties in Central and Eastern Europe: explaining electoral support for the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia

Rising support for populist right-wing parties has become a key story of recent decades. It has mainly been making headlines in Western democracies but is also becoming increasingly prevalent in Central and Eastern Europe. Despite there being strong evidence that campaigns influence electoral performance, and a large body of literature profiling the voters of populist right-wing parties, we still know little about the comparative relevance of parties’ campaign efforts and voters’ personal characteristics for supporting such parties. Merging data from the 2015 Estonian Candidate Study and the 2015 Estonian National Election Study, this article explains electoral support for the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia. It finds that both individual-level and party-level factors influence voters’ likelihood of casting their ballot for the populist right-wing party. Support for the party is higher in constituencies where it carries out more intense campaigns, and amongst voters who hold anti-establishment sentiments and are socially conservative. In contrast to populist right-wing parties in the West, however, anti-immigration feelings and Euroscepticism do not drive support for it. These findings show that support for populist right-wing parties is shaped by their campaign effort and their ability to tap into the ‘right’ kind of disillusionment

When parties engage voters on the ground, they intensify public interest in elections and improve turnout

Local campaigns play a key role in Britain in mobilising the electorate. Here, Siim Trumm and Laura Sudulich compare the effects of different campaign activities on voter turnout at general and devolved elections. They find positive mobilisation effects for money spent on the distribution of unsolicited material and paid staffers

Parliamentary salaries are frequently a source of party funding, but what are the implications for democracy?

In nearly all modern democracies, parliamentarians by now receive a full-time salary in order to attract qualified candidates and representatives from all corners of the society. These payments are, in principle, not intended to constitute an additional source of party income. Yet, Nicole Bolleyer and Siim Trumm have shown that in many democracies they are exactly that. The regular collection of a fixed salary share from parliamentarians is not just a widespread practice, but for many parties also a lucrative one

Even after Brexit, most would-be MPs believed that they should prioritise their own views over those of their voters

Should lawmakers prioritise their own policy judgments or the views of their voters when the two are in conflict? Siim Trumm and Andrew Barclay explore what parliamentary candidates think the answer to this question should be. They find that most candidates expect MPs to prioritise their own views, a belief that is particularly prevalent among incumbents and male candidates

Online versus offline: Exploring the link between how candidates campaign and how voters cast their ballot

Internet is playing an increasingly important role in shaping citizens’ political experience. We turn to it to consume political news and, in some countries, to even cast our ballots at parliamentary elections. Leading the way in embracing Internet voting (i-voting) is Estonia where nearly half of the ballots cast during the 2019 parliamentary election were submitted online. Using original data from the 2019 Estonian Candidate Study, this paper explores the relationship between how candidates campaign and their electoral performance. It finds greater use of both offline and online campaign tools to contribute to higher vote shares as candidates win more traditional and i-votes. These positive effects are similar in size, in terms of candidates’ overall electoral performance as well as their ability to attract different types of votes. The results show not only that individual-level campaigns continue to matter, but that online campaigns have become as important as offline campaigns for candidates, and voters’ political activity often transcends the medium through which they receive political communication

Election leaflets suggest campaigns have become less rather than more personalised

The personal characteristics of political elites play an important role in British elections. Caitlin Milazzo and Siim Trumm discuss how candidates’ attributes feature in general election leaflets using data from the OpenElections project