Modelling production-consumption flows of goods in Europe: the trade model within Transtools3

The paper presents a new model for trade flows in Europe that is integrated with a logistics model for transport chain choice through Logsum variables. Logsums measures accessibility across an entire multi-modal logistical chain, and are calculated from a logistics model that has been estimated on disaggregated micro data and then used as an input variable in the trade model. Using Logsums in a trade model is new in applied large-scale freight models, where previous models have simply relied on the distance (e.g. crow-fly) between zones. This linkage of accessibility to the trade model makes it possible to evaluate how changes in policies on transport costs and changes in multi-modal networks will influence trade patterns. As an example the paper presents outcomes for a European-wide truck tolling scenario, which showcases to which extent trade is influenced by such a policy. The paper discusses how such a complex model can be estimated and considers the choice of mathematical formulation and the link between the trade model and logistics model. In the outcomes for the tolling scenario we decompose the total effects into effects from the trade model and effects from the logistics model

Values of travel time in Europe: Review and meta-analysis

This paper reports the most extensive meta-analysis of values of time yet conducted, covering 3109 monetary valuations assembled from 389 European studies conducted between 1963 and 2011. It aims to explain how valuations vary across studies, including over time and between countries. In addition to the customary coverage of in-vehicle time in review studies, this paper covers valuations of walk time, wait time, service headway, parking space search time, departure time switching, time in congested traffic, schedule delay early and late, mean lateness and the standard deviation of travel time. Valuations are found to vary with type of time, GDP, distance, journey purpose, mode, the monetary numeraire and a number of factors related to estimation. Model output values of time compare favourably with earnings data, replicate well official recommended values obtained from major national studies, and are transferable across countries. These implied monetary values serve as very useful benchmarks against which new evidence can be assessed and the meta-model provides parameters and values for countries and contexts where there is no other such evidence

Evaluation of adjunctive HPV testing by Hybrid Capture II(® )in women with minor cytological abnormalities for the diagnosis of CIN2/3 and cost comparison with colposcopy

BACKGROUND: As a proportion of high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2/3) are associated with equivocal cervical smears, which show borderline or mild dyskaryosis, follow up with repeat smears, colposcopy and biopsy is required. Since infection with oncogenic Human Papilloma Virus (HR HPV) has been found to be associated with the development of cervical cancer, HRHPV testing appears to be an alternative. OBJECTIVE: The present study assesses if HRHPV testing can predict CIN2/3 in women referred for mild dyskaryosis and borderline cytological changes in an health authority with a referral policy to colposcopy after one single mild dyskaryotic Pap smear. STUDY DESIGN: The HPV DNA Hybrid Capture II (Digene/Abbott, Maidenhead) was evaluated on 110 consenting women with mild dyskaryosis and 23 women with persistent borderline changes, who were referred for colposcopy between May and November 2001. A cost comparison between two referral policies was performed. RESULTS: CIN2/3 was diagnosed histologically in 30 of 133 women (22%) with minor cytological abnormalities. As the Receiver Operator Characteristics plot suggested a cut-off of 3 pg/ml the HRHPV HCII was evaluated at 3 RLU (relative light units) and at the manufacturer's recommendation of 1 RLU. At both cut-offs sensitivity and negative predictive value were high at 97%. Specificity was low at 37% at a cut-off of 1 pg/ml and 46% at a cut-off of 3 RLU. To remain cost neutral in comparison to immediate colposcopy the costs for one HR HPV HC II must not exceed £34.37 per test at a cut off of 3 pg/ml. CONCLUSION: The negative likelihood ratio (NLR) was of good diagnostic value with 0.089 at 1 RLU and 0.072 at 3 RLU, which reduces the post-test probability for CIN2/3 to 2% in this population. Women with minor cytological disorders can be excluded from colposcopy on a negative HR HPV result. Specificity can be improved by restricting HR HPV testing to women with persistent borderline cytological changes or to women over 30 years

Value of Travel Time as a Function of Comfort

The value of travel time can theoretically be defined as the opportunity cost of travel minus the direct utility from spending the time during the trip. This paper searches for empirical evidence to support this formulation. We show that travellers who indicate that a shorter trip duration is useful or a longer trip duration is very inconvenient have a higher value of travel time. Furthermore, we show that people who can spend their travel time usefully have a lower value of travel time. Finally, the availability of a computer, laptop etc. during the trip increases the probability of travel time being useful. This study determines the sizes of these effects in a case study for The Netherlands. This is important since the value of travel time is likely to change over time. The outcomes of this paper can be used to estimate the size of the expected reduction in value of travel time as a result of future comfort improvements that increase the possibility to work, read a book, watch a movie and communicate during a trip

Analysis of genetic copy number changes in cervical disease progression

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cervical dysplasia and tumorigenesis have been linked with numerous chromosomal aberrations. The goal of this study was to evaluate 35 genomic regions associated with cervical disease and to select those which were found to have the highest frequency of aberration for use as probes in fluorescent in-situ hybridization.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The frequency of gains and losses using fluorescence in-situ hybridization were assessed in these 35 regions on 30 paraffin-embedded cervical biopsy specimens. Based on this assessment, 6 candidate fluorescently labeled probes (8q24, Xp22, 20q13, 3p14, 3q26, CEP15) were selected for additional testing on a set of 106 cervical biopsy specimens diagnosed as Normal, CIN1, CIN2, CIN3, and SCC. The data were analyzed on the basis of signal mean, % change of signal mean between histological categories, and % positivity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The study revealed that the chromosomal regions with the highest frequency of copy number gains and highest combined sensitivity and specificity in high-grade cervical disease were 8q24 and 3q26. The cytological application of these two probes was then evaluated on 118 ThinPrep™ samples diagnosed as Normal, ASCUS, LSIL, HSIL and Cancer to determine utility as a tool for less invasive screening. Using gains of either 8q24 or 3q26 as a positivity criterion yielded specificity (Normal +LSIL+ASCUS) of 81.0% and sensitivity (HSIL+Cancer) of 92.3% based on a threshold of 4 positive cells.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The application of a FISH assay comprised of chromosomal probes 8q24 and 3q26 to cervical cytology specimens confirms the positive correlation between increasing dysplasia and copy gains and shows promise as a marker in cervical disease progression.</p