The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. Methods: Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. Results: In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8–54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19–54), 46% (30–59), and 54% (43–64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25–56), 54% (43–63), and 67% (59–72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives. Conclusion: While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya

Landscape dynamics (landDX) an open-access spatial-temporal database for the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands

The savannas of the Kenya-Tanzania borderland cover >100,000 km2 and is one of the most important regions globally for biodiversity conservation, particularly large mammals. The region also supports >1 million pastoralists and their livestock. In these systems, resources for both large mammals and pastoralists are highly variable in space and time and thus require connected landscapes. However, ongoing fragmentation of (semi-)natural vegetation by smallholder fencing and expansion of agriculture threatens this social-ecological system. Spatial data on fences and agricultural expansion are localized and dispersed among data owners and databases. Here, we synthesized data from several research groups and conservation NGOs and present the first release of the Landscape Dynamics (landDX) spatial-temporal database, covering ~30,000 km2 of southern Kenya. The data includes 31,000 livestock enclosures, nearly 40,000 kilometres of fencing, and 1,500 km2 of agricultural land. We provide caveats and interpretation of the different methodologies used. These data are useful to answer fundamental ecological questions, to quantify the rate of change of ecosystem function and wildlife populations, for conservation and livestock management, and for local and governmental spatial planning.The South Rift Association of Land Owners (specifically grants from the European Union and the Lion Recovery Fund), BigLife Foundation, Esri Conservation Program, Mara Elephant Project, Microsoft AI4Earth programme, the Carlsberg Foundation Semper Ardens project MegaPast2Future, and the VILLUM Investigator project “Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World” funded by VILLUM FONDEN, the European Research Council (ERC) project ANTHEA.http://www.nature.com/scientificdataam2023Mammal Research InstituteZoology and Entomolog

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in three Kenyan health and demographic surveillance sites, December 2020-May 2021

Background Most of the studies that have informed the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya have relied on samples that are not representative of the general population. We conducted population-based serosurveys at three Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) to determine the cumulative incidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2. Methods We selected random age-stratified population-based samples at HDSSs in Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, in Kenya. Blood samples were collected from participants between 01 Dec 2020 and 27 May 2021. No participant had received a COVID-19 vaccine. We tested for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using ELISA. Locally-validated assay sensitivity and specificity were 93% (95% CI 88–96%) and 99% (95% CI 98–99.5%), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates using classical methods and Bayesian modelling to account for the sampling scheme and assay performance. Results We recruited 2,559 individuals from the three HDSS sites, median age (IQR) 27 (10–78) years and 52% were female. Seroprevalence at all three sites rose steadily during the study period. In Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, seroprevalences (95% CI) at the beginning of the study were 36.0% (28.2–44.4%), 32.4% (23.1–42.4%), and 14.5% (9.1–21%), and respectively; at the end they were 42.0% (34.7–50.0%), 50.2% (39.7–61.1%), and 24.7% (17.5–32.6%), respectively. Seroprevalence was substantially lower among children (&lt;16 years) than among adults at all three sites (p≤0.001). Conclusion By May 2021 in three broadly representative populations of unvaccinated individuals in Kenya, seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 25–50%. There was wide variation in cumulative incidence by location and age. </jats:sec

Patient costs of diabetes mellitus care in public health care facilities in Kenya

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the direct and indirect costs of diabetes mellitus care at five public health facilities in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study in two counties where diabetes patients aged 18 years and above were interviewed. Data on care-seeking costs were obtained from 163 patients seeking diabetes care at five public facilities using the cost-of-illness approach. Medicines and user charges were classified as direct health care costs while expenses on transport, food, and accommodation were classified as direct non-health care costs. Productivity losses due to diabetes were classified as indirect costs. We computed annual direct and indirect costs borne by these patients. RESULTS: More than half (57.7%) of sampled patients had hypertension comorbidity. Overall, the mean annual direct patient cost was KES 53 907 (95% CI, 43 625.4-64 188.6) (US$528.5 [95$ 227.2 [95% CI, 205-249.4]). Patients reporting hypertension comorbidity incurred higher costs compared with diabetes-only patients. The incidence of catastrophic costs was 63.1% (95% CI, 55.7-70.7) and increased to 75.4% (95% CI, 68.3-82.1) when transport costs were included. CONCLUSION: There are substantial direct and indirect costs borne by diabetic patients in seeking care from public facilities in Kenya. High incidence of catastrophic costs suggests diabetes services are unaffordable to majority of diabetic patients and illustrate the urgent need to improve financial risk protection to ensure access to care.</p

Patient costs of hypertension care in public health care facilities in Kenya

Background Hypertension in low‐ and middle‐income countries, including Kenya, is of economic importance due to its increasing prevalence and its potential to present an economic burden to households. In this study, we examined the patient costs associated with obtaining care for hypertension in public health care facilities in Kenya. Methods We conducted a cross‐sectional study among adult respondents above 18 years of age, with at least 6 months of treatment in two counties. A total of 212 patients seeking hypertension care at five public facilities were interviewed, and information on care seeking and the associated costs was obtained. We computed both annual direct and indirect costs borne by these patients. Results Overall, the mean annual direct cost to patients was US$304.8 (95$ 168.9; 95% CI, 132.5‐205.4), transport (mean annual cost, US$126.7; 95$ 57.7; 95% CI, 43.7‐71.6) were the highest direct cost categories. Overall mean annual indirect cost was US$ 171.7 (95% CI, 152.8‐190.5). The incidence of catastrophic health care costs was 43.3% (95% CI, 36.8‐50.2) and increased to 59.0% (95% CI, 52.2‐65.4) when transport costs were included. Conclusions Hypertensive patients incur substantial direct and indirect costs. High rates of catastrophic costs illustrate the urgency of improving financial risk protection for these patients and strengthening primary care to ensure affordability of hypertension care

Diagnostic accuracy of unattended automated office blood pressure measurement in screening for hypertension in Kenya

Despite increasing adoption of unattended automated office blood pressure (uAOBP) measurement for determining clinic blood pressure (BP), its diagnostic performance in screening for hypertension in low-income settings has not been determined. We determined the validity of uAOBP in screening for hypertension, using 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring as the reference standard. We studied a random population sample of 982 Kenyan adults; mean age, 42 years; 60% women; 2% with diabetes mellitus; none taking antihypertensive medications. We calculated sensitivity using 3 different screen positivity cutoffs (≥130/80, ≥135/85, and ≥140/90 mm Hg) and other measures of validity/agreement. Mean 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring systolic BP was similar to mean uAOBP systolic BP (mean difference, 0.6 mm Hg; 95% CI, −0.6 to 1.9), but the 95% limits of agreement were wide (−39 to 40 mm Hg). Overall discriminatory accuracy of uAOBP was the same (area under receiver operating characteristic curves, 0.66–0.68; 95% CI range, 0.64–0.71) irrespective of uAOBP cutoffs used. Sensitivity of uAOBP displayed an inverse association (P25 kg/m2). No differences in results were present in other subanalyses. uAOBP misclassifies significant proportions of individuals undergoing screening for hypertension in Kenya. Additional studies on how to improve screening strategies in this setting are needed

The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. Methods Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. Results In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8–54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19–54), 46% (30–59), and 54% (43–64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25–56), 54% (43–63), and 67% (59–72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives. Conclusion While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya

A mixed methods approach to adapting and evaluating the functional assessment of HIV infection (FAHI), Swahili version, for use with low literacy populations

Abstract: Background Despite bearing the largest HIV-related burden, little is known of the Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. One of the factors contributing to this gap in knowledge is the lack of culturally adapted and validated measures of HRQoL that are relevant for this setting. Aims We set out to adapt the Functional Assessment of HIV Infection (FAHI) Questionnaire, an HIV-specific measure of HRQoL, and evaluate its internal consistency and validity. Methods The three phase mixed-methods study took place in a rural setting at the Kenyan Coast. Phase one involved a scoping review to describe the evidence base of the reliability and validity of FAHI as well as the geographical contexts in which it has been administered. Phase two involved in-depth interviews (n = 38) to explore the content validity, and initial piloting for face validation of the adapted FAHI. Phase three was quantitative (n = 103) and evaluated the internal consistency, convergent and construct validities of the adapted interviewer-administered questionnaire. Results In the first phase of the study, we identified 16 studies that have used the FAHI. Most (82%) were conducted in North America. Only seven (44%) of the reviewed studies reported on the psychometric properties of the FAHI. In the second phase, most of the participants (37 out of 38) reported satisfaction with word clarity and content coverage whereas 34 (89%) reported satisfaction with relevance of the items, confirming the face validity of the adapted questionnaire during initial piloting. Our participants indicated that HIV impacted on their physical, functional, emotional, and social wellbeing. Their responses overlapped with items in four of the five subscales of the FAHI Questionnaire establishing its content validity. In the third phase, the internal consistency of the scale was found to be satisfactory with subscale Cronbach’s α ranging from 0.55 to 0.78. The construct and convergent validity of the tool were supported by acceptable factor loadings for most of the items on the respective sub-scales and confirmation of expected significant correlations of the FAHI subscale scores with scores of a measure of common mental disorders. Conclusion The adapted interviewer-administered Swahili version of FAHI questionnaire showed initial strong evidence of good psychometric properties with satisfactory internal consistency and acceptable validity (content, face, and convergent validity). It gives impetus for further validation work, especially construct validity, in similar settings before it can be used for research and clinical purposes in the entire East African region

The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. METHODS: Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. RESULTS: In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8–54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19–54), 46% (30–59), and 54% (43–64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25–56), 54% (43–63), and 67% (59–72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives. CONCLUSION: While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya