COVID-19: Preparing for the future: looking ahead to winter 2021/22 and beyond

Despite a highly successful vaccination campaign in the UK, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is not over, and we are currently seeing rapidly rising infection rates. While there is an understandable and intense desire for ‘normality’ to return, we need to sustain our efforts to limit the transmission and impacts of the virus, particularly for the most vulnerable, for the longer term. To prepare for the winter period and beyond, the priorities over the summer period must be to: Maximise the speed and uptake of COVID-19 vaccination in all eligible age groups, and prepare for possible booster vaccines in priority groups and vaccination against influenza later in the year. Increase the ability of people with COVID-19 to self-isolate through financial and other support, with a particular focus on those in areas of persistent transmission and in the lowest socio-economic groups. Boost capacity in the NHS (staff and beds) to: build resilience against future outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases, including through improving infection prevention and control (IPC), increasing vaccination and testing capacity for COVID-19 and influenza, adequately resourcing primary care, and reducing the backlog of non-COVID-19 care. Provide clear guidance about environmental and behavioural precautions (such as the use of face coverings, ventilation and physical distancing) that individuals and organisations can take to protect themselves and others, especially those who are most vulnerable from infection

Prevalence of physical frailty, including risk factors, up to 1 year after hospitalisation for COVID-19 in the UK: a multicentre, longitudinal cohort study.

Background The scale of COVID-19 and its well documented long-term sequelae support a need to understand long-term outcomes including frailty. Methods This prospective cohort study recruited adults who had survived hospitalisation with clinically diagnosed COVID-19 across 35 sites in the UK (PHOSP-COVID). The burden of frailty was objectively measured using Fried's Frailty Phenotype (FFP). The primary outcome was the prevalence of each FFP group—robust (no FFP criteria), pre-frail (one or two FFP criteria) and frail (three or more FFP criteria)—at 5 months and 1 year after discharge from hospital. For inclusion in the primary analysis, participants required complete outcome data for three of the five FFP criteria. Longitudinal changes across frailty domains are reported at 5 months and 1 year post-hospitalisation, along with risk factors for frailty status. Patient-perceived recovery and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were retrospectively rated for pre-COVID-19 and prospectively rated at the 5 month and 1 year visits. This study is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN10980107. Findings Between March 5, 2020, and March 31, 2021, 2419 participants were enrolled with FFP data. Mean age was 57.9 (SD 12.6) years, 933 (38.6%) were female, and 429 (17.7%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation. 1785 had measures at both timepoints, of which 240 (13.4%), 1138 (63.8%) and 407 (22.8%) were frail, pre-frail and robust, respectively, at 5 months compared with 123 (6.9%), 1046 (58.6%) and 616 (34.5%) at 1 year. Factors associated with pre-frailty or frailty were invasive mechanical ventilation, older age, female sex, and greater social deprivation. Frail participants had a larger reduction in HRQoL compared with before their COVID-19 illness and were less likely to describe themselves as recovered. Interpretation Physical frailty and pre-frailty are common following hospitalisation with COVID-19. Improvement in frailty was seen between 5 and 12 months although two-thirds of the population remained pre-frail or frail. This suggests comprehensive assessment and interventions targeting pre-frailty and frailty beyond the initial illness are required. Funding UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research

Addressing challenges for clinical research responses to emerging epidemics and pandemics: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Major infectious disease outbreaks are a constant threat to human health. Clinical research responses to outbreaks generate evidence to improve outcomes and outbreak control. Experiences from previous epidemics have identified multiple challenges to undertaking timely clinical research responses. This scoping review is a systematic appraisal of political, economic, administrative, regulatory, logistical, ethical and social (PEARLES) challenges to clinical research responses to emergency epidemics and solutions identified to address these. METHODS: A scoping review. We searched six databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, PsycINFO, Scopus and Epistemonikos) for articles published from 2008 to July 2018. We included publications reporting PEARLES challenges to clinical research responses to emerging epidemics and pandemics and solutions identified to address these. Two reviewers screened articles for inclusion, extracted and analysed the data. RESULTS: Of 2678 articles screened, 76 were included. Most presented data relating to the 2014-2016 Ebola virus outbreak or the H1N1 outbreak in 2009. The articles related to clinical research responses in Africa (n = 37), Europe (n = 8), North America (n = 5), Latin America and the Caribbean (n = 3) and Asia (n = 1) and/or globally (n = 22). A wide range of solutions to PEARLES challenges was presented, including a need to strengthen global collaborations and coordination at all levels and develop pre-approved protocols and equitable frameworks, protocols and standards for emergencies. Clinical trial networks and expedited funding and approvals were some solutions implemented. National ownership and community engagement from the outset were a key enabler for delivery. Despite the wide range of recommended solutions, none had been formally evaluated. CONCLUSIONS: To strengthen global preparedness and response to the COVID-19 pandemic and future epidemics, identified solutions for rapid clinical research deployment, delivery, and dissemination must be implemented. Improvements are urgently needed to strengthen collaborations, funding mechanisms, global and national research capacity and capability, targeting regions vulnerable to epidemics and pandemics. Solutions need to be flexible to allow timely adaptations to context, and research led by governments of affected regions. Research communities globally need to evaluate their activities and incorporate lessons learnt to refine and rehearse collaborative outbreak response plans in between epidemics

Interventions and approaches to integrating HIV and mental health services: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The frequency in which HIV and AIDS and mental health problems co-exist, and the complex bi-directional relationship between them, highlights the need for effective care models combining services for HIV and mental health. Here, we present a systematic review that synthesizes the literature on interventions and approaches integrating these services. METHODS: This review was part of a larger systematic review on integration of services for HIV and non-communicable diseases. Eligible studies included those that described or evaluated an intervention or approach aimed at integrating HIV and mental health care. We searched multiple databases from inception until October 2015, independently screened articles identified for inclusion, conducted data extraction, and assessed evaluative papers for risk of bias. RESULTS: Forty-five articles were eligible for this review. We identified three models of integration at the meso and micro levels: single-facility integration, multi-facility integration, and integrated care coordinated by a non-physician case manager. Single-site integration enhances multidisciplinary coordination and reduces access barriers for patients. However, the practicality and cost-effectiveness of providing a full continuum of specialized care on-site for patients with complex needs is arguable. Integration based on a collaborative network of specialized agencies may serve those with multiple co-morbidities but fragmented and poorly coordinated care can pose barriers. Integrated care coordinated by a single case manager can enable continuity of care for patients but requires appropriate training and support for case managers. Involving patients as key actors in facilitating integration within their own treatment plan is a promising approach. CONCLUSION: This review identified much diversity in integration models combining HIV and mental health services, which are shown to have potential in yielding positive patient and service delivery outcomes when implemented within appropriate contexts. Our review revealed a lack of research in low- and middle- income countries, and was limited to most studies being descriptive. Overall, studies that seek to evaluate and compare integration models in terms of long-term outcomes and cost-effectiveness are needed, particularly at the health system level and in regions with high HIV and AIDS burden

Short-term and medium-term clinical outcomes of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children:a prospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND: Even though the incidence of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in children (MIS-C) is decreasing cases are still reported across the world. Studying the consequences of MIS-C enhances our understanding of the disease's prognosis. The objective of this study was to assess short- and medium-term clinical outcomes of MIS-C.METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study at Municipal Children's Hospital Morozovskaya, Moscow, Russia. All children meeting the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), or the World Health Organization (WHO) MIS-C case definition admitted to the hospital between 17 May and 26 October 2020 were included in the study. All survivors were invited to attend a clinic at 2 and 6 weeks after hospital discharge.RESULTS: 37 children median age 6 years (interquartile range [IQR] 3.3-9.4), 59.5% (22/37) boys were included in the study. 48.6% (18/37) of patients required ICU care. One child died. All children had increased levels of systemic inflammatory markers during the acute event. Echocardiographic investigations identified abnormal findings in 35.1% (13/37) of children. 5.6% (2/36) of children were presenting with any symptoms six weeks after discharge. By six weeks the inflammatory markers were within the reference norms in all children. The echocardiographic evaluation showed persistent coronary dilatation in one child.CONCLUSIONS: Despite the severity of their acute MIS-C, the majority of children in our cohort fully recovered with none having elevated laboratory markers of inflammation at 6 weeks, few (&lt; 10%) reporting persistent symptoms at 6 weeks, and only one with persistent echocardiographic abnormalities.</p

Features of 20 133 UK patients in hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol:prospective observational cohort study

Objective: To characterise the clinical features of patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in the United Kingdom during the growth phase of the first wave of this outbreak who were enrolled in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study, and to explore risk factors associated with mortality in hospital. Design: Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis. Setting: 208 acute care hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 6 February and 19 April 2020. A case report form developed by ISARIC and WHO was used to collect clinical data. A minimal follow-up time of two weeks (to 3 May 2020) allowed most patients to complete their hospital admission. Participants: 20 133 hospital inpatients with covid-19. Main outcome measures: Admission to critical care (high dependency unit or intensive care unit) and mortality in hospital. Results: The median age of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19, or with a diagnosis of covid-19 made in hospital, was 73 years (interquartile range 58-82, range 0-104). More men were admitted than women (men 60%, n=12 068; women 40%, n=8065). The median duration of symptoms before admission was 4 days (interquartile range 1-8). The commonest comorbidities were chronic cardiac disease (31%, 5469/17 702), uncomplicated diabetes (21%, 3650/17 599), non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease (18%, 3128/17 634), and chronic kidney disease (16%, 2830/17 506); 23% (4161/18 525) had no reported major comorbidity. Overall, 41% (8199/20 133) of patients were discharged alive, 26% (5165/20 133) died, and 34% (6769/20 133) continued to receive care at the reporting date. 17% (3001/18 183) required admission to high dependency or intensive care units; of these, 28% (826/3001) were discharged alive, 32% (958/3001) died, and 41% (1217/3001) continued to receive care at the reporting date. Of those receiving mechanical ventilation, 17% (276/1658) were discharged alive, 37% (618/1658) died, and 46% (764/1658) remained in hospital. Increasing age, male sex, and comorbidities including chronic cardiac disease, non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, liver disease and obesity were associated with higher mortality in hospital. Conclusions: ISARIC WHO CCP-UK is a large prospective cohort study of patients in hospital with covid-19. The study continues to enrol at the time of this report. In study participants, mortality was high, independent risk factors were increasing age, male sex, and chronic comorbidity, including obesity. This study has shown the importance of pandemic preparedness and the need to maintain readiness to launch research studies in response to outbreaks. Study registration: ISRCTN66726260

Clinical characteristics of children and young people admitted to hospital with covid-19 in United Kingdom: prospective multicentre observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the clinical features of children and young people admitted to hospital with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the UK and explore factors associated with admission to critical care, mortality, and development of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and adolescents temporarily related to coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) (MIS-C). DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis. SETTING: 260 hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 17 January and 3 July 2020, with a minimum follow-up time of two weeks (to 17 July 2020). PARTICIPANTS: 651 children and young people aged less than 19 years admitted to 138 hospitals and enrolled into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emergency Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Admission to critical care (high dependency or intensive care), in-hospital mortality, or meeting the WHO preliminary case definition for MIS-C. RESULTS: Median age was 4.6 (interquartile range 0.3-13.7) years, 35% (225/651) were under 12 months old, and 56% (367/650) were male. 57% (330/576) were white, 12% (67/576) South Asian, and 10% (56/576) black. 42% (276/651) had at least one recorded comorbidity. A systemic mucocutaneous-enteric cluster of symptoms was identified, which encompassed the symptoms for the WHO MIS-C criteria. 18% (116/632) of children were admitted to critical care. On multivariable analysis, this was associated with age under 1 month (odds ratio 3.21, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 7.66; P=0.008), age 10-14 years (3.23, 1.55 to 6.99; P=0.002), and black ethnicity (2.82, 1.41 to 5.57; P=0.003). Six (1%) of 627 patients died in hospital, all of whom had profound comorbidity. 11% (52/456) met the WHO MIS-C criteria, with the first patient developing symptoms in mid-March. Children meeting MIS-C criteria were older (median age 10.7 (8.3-14.1) v 1.6 (0.2-12.9) years; P<0.001) and more likely to be of non-white ethnicity (64% (29/45) v 42% (148/355); P=0.004). Children with MIS-C were five times more likely to be admitted to critical care (73% (38/52) v 15% (62/404); P<0.001). In addition to the WHO criteria, children with MIS-C were more likely to present with fatigue (51% (24/47) v 28% (86/302); P=0.004), headache (34% (16/47) v 10% (26/263); P<0.001), myalgia (34% (15/44) v 8% (21/270); P<0.001), sore throat (30% (14/47) v (12% (34/284); P=0.003), and lymphadenopathy (20% (9/46) v 3% (10/318); P<0.001) and to have a platelet count of less than 150 × 109/L (32% (16/50) v 11% (38/348); P<0.001) than children who did not have MIS-C. No deaths occurred in the MIS-C group. CONCLUSIONS: Children and young people have less severe acute covid-19 than adults. A systemic mucocutaneous-enteric symptom cluster was also identified in acute cases that shares features with MIS-C. This study provides additional evidence for refining the WHO MIS-C preliminary case definition. Children meeting the MIS-C criteria have different demographic and clinical features depending on whether they have acute SARS-CoV-2 infection (polymerase chain reaction positive) or are post-acute (antibody positive). STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN66726260

Clinical characteristics of children and young people hospitalised with covid-19 in the United Kingdom: prospective multicentre observational cohort study

Objective To characterise the clinical features of children and young people admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the UK, and explore factors associated with admission to critical care, mortality, and development of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and adolescents temporarily related to covid-19 (MIS-C). Design Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis. Setting 260 acute care hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 17th January and 5th June 2020, with a minimal follow-up time of two weeks (to 19th June 2020). Participants 451 children and young people aged less than 19 years admitted to 116 hospitals and enrolled into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emergency Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2. Main Outcome Measures Admission to critical care (high dependency or intensive care), in-hospital mortality, or meeting the WHO preliminary case definition for MIS-C. Results Median age was 3.9 years [interquartile range (IQR) 0.3-12.9 years], 36% (162/451) were under 12 months old, and 57% (256/450) were male. 56% (224/401) were White, 12% (49/401) South Asian and 10% (40/401) Black. 43% (195/451) had at least one recorded comorbidity. A muco-enteric cluster of symptoms was identified, closely mirroring the WHO MIS-C criteria. 17% of children (72/431) were admitted to critical care. On multivariable analysis this was associated with age under one month odds ratio 5.05 (95% confidence interval 1.69 to 15.72, p=0.004), age 10 to 14 years OR 3.11 (1.21 to 8.55, p=0.022) and Black ethnicity OR 3.02 (1.30 to 6.84, p=0.008). Three young people died (0.7 %, 3/451) aged 16 to 19 years, all of whom had profound comorbidity. Twelve percent of children (36/303) met the WHO MIS-C criteria, with the first patient developing symptoms in mid-March. Those meeting MIS-C criteria were older, (median age 10.8 years ([IQR 8.4-14.1] vs 2.0 [0.2-12.6]), p [less than] 0.001) and more likely to be of non-White ethnicity (70% (23/33) vs 43% (101/237), p=0.005). Children with MIS-C were four times more likely to be admitted to critical care (61% (22/36) vs 15% (40/267, p [less than] 0.001). In addition to the WHO criteria, children with MIS-C were more likely to present with headache (45% (13/29) vs 11% (19/171), p [less than] 0.001), myalgia (39% (11/28) vs 7% (12/170), p [less than] 0.001), sore throat (37% (10/27) vs (13% (24/183, p = 0.004) and fatigue (57% (17/30) vs 31% (60/192), p =0.012) than children who did not and to have a platelet count of less than 150 x109/L (30% (10/33) vs 10% (24/232), p=0.004). Conclusions Our data confirms less severe covid-19 in children and young people than in adults and we provide additional evidence for refining the MIS-C case definition. The identification of a muco-enteric symptom cluster also raises the suggestion that MIS-C is the severe end of a spectrum of disease

Para-infectious brain injury in COVID-19 persists at follow-up despite attenuated cytokine and autoantibody responses

To understand neurological complications of COVID-19 better both acutely and for recovery, we measured markers of brain injury, inflammatory mediators, and autoantibodies in 203 hospitalised participants; 111 with acute sera (1–11 days post-admission) and 92 convalescent sera (56 with COVID-19-associated neurological diagnoses). Here we show that compared to 60 uninfected controls, tTau, GFAP, NfL, and UCH-L1 are increased with COVID-19 infection at acute timepoints and NfL and GFAP are significantly higher in participants with neurological complications. Inflammatory mediators (IL-6, IL-12p40, HGF, M-CSF, CCL2, and IL-1RA) are associated with both altered consciousness and markers of brain injury. Autoantibodies are more common in COVID-19 than controls and some (including against MYL7, UCH-L1, and GRIN3B) are more frequent with altered consciousness. Additionally, convalescent participants with neurological complications show elevated GFAP and NfL, unrelated to attenuated systemic inflammatory mediators and to autoantibody responses. Overall, neurological complications of COVID-19 are associated with evidence of neuroglial injury in both acute and late disease and these correlate with dysregulated innate and adaptive immune responses acutely

International Care programs for Pediatric Post-COVID Condition (Long COVID) and the way forward

Background: Pediatric Post-COVID-Condition (PPCC) clinics treat children despite limited scientific substantiation. By exploring real-life management of children diagnosed with PPCC, the International Post-COVID-Condition in Children Collaboration (IP4C) aimed to provide guidance for future PPCC care. // Methods: We performed a cross-sectional international, multicenter study on used PPCC definitions; the organization of PPCC care programs and patients characteristics. We compared aggregated data from PPCC cohorts and identified priorities to improve PPCC care. // Results: Ten PPCC care programs and six COVID-19 follow-up research cohorts participated. Aggregated data from 584 PPCC patients was analyzed. The most common symptoms included fatigue (71%), headache (55%), concentration difficulties (53%), and brain fog (48%). Severe limitations in daily life were reported in 31% of patients. Most PPCC care programs organized in-person visits with multidisciplinary teams. Diagnostic testing for respiratory and cardiac morbidity was most frequently performed and seldom abnormal. Treatment was often limited to physical therapy and psychological support. // Conclusions: We found substantial heterogeneity in both the diagnostics and management of PPCC, possibly explained by scarce scientific evidence and lack of standardized care. We present a list of components which future guidelines should address, and outline priorities concerning PPCC care pathways, research and international collaboration