Terminal valuations, growth rates and the implied cost of capital

This article is published with open access at Springerlink.comWe develop a model based on the notion that prices lead earnings, allowing for a simultaneous estimation of the implied growth rate and the cost of equity capital for US industrial sectors. The major difference between our approach and that in prior literature is that ours avoids the necessity to make assumptions about terminal values and consequently about future growth rates. In fact, growth rates are an endogenous variable, which is estimated simultaneously with the implied cost of equity capital. Since we require only 1-year-ahead forecasts of earnings and no assumptions about dividend payouts, our methodology allows us to estimate ex ante aggregate growth and risk premia over a larger sample of firms than has previously been possible. Our estimate of the risk premium being between 3.1 and 3.9 % is at the lower end of recent estimates, reflecting the inclusion of these short-lived companies. Our estimate of the long run growth is from 4.2 to 4.7 %

Prediction of photoperiodic regulators from quantitative gene circuit models

Photoperiod sensors allow physiological adaptation to the changing seasons. The external coincidence hypothesis postulates that a light-responsive regulator is modulated by a circadian rhythm. Sufficient data are available to test this quantitatively in plants, though not yet in animals. In Arabidopsis, the clock-regulated genes CONSTANS (CO) and FLAVIN, KELCH, F-BOX (FKF1) and their lightsensitive proteins are thought to form an external coincidence sensor. We use 40 timeseries of molecular data to model the integration of light and timing information by CO, its target gene FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT), and the circadian clock. Among other predictions, the models show that FKF1 activates FT. We demonstrate experimentally that this effect is independent of the known activation of CO by FKF1, thus we locate a major, novel controller of photoperiodism. External coincidence is part of a complex photoperiod sensor: modelling makes this complexity explicit and may thus contribute to crop improvement

Business development in renewable energy

This paper discusses how to foster development of renewable energy business. Factors that impede or enhance renewable energy in the EU 27 member states in the period 1998–2008 are analyzed. Nine factors are considered: population density, production output and energy sector output to indicate market conditions, public total expenditures, subsidies and environmental protection expenditures to indicate institutional conditions, R&D, share of students in population and venture capital to indicate firm’s resources. Scarce space for business development and vested energy interests are the main impediments. R&D and venture capital are main drivers. The US and EU support for R&D and venture capital in renewable energy are compared. The US support is larger and mainly based on R&D grants. It has generated large, innovative enterprises. The EU support is mainly based on price guarantees for renewable energy delivery to grid. It has generated many enterprises. Building capabilities through stakeholders’ networks in early phase of business development and clusters in the later phase is recommended

Structural diversity of biologically interesting datasets: a scaffold analysis approach

ABSTRACT:The recent public availability of the human metabolome and natural product datasets has revitalized "metabolite-likeness" and "natural product-likeness" as a drug design concept to design lead libraries targeting specific pathways. Many reports have analyzed the physicochemical property space of biologically important datasets, with only a few comprehensively characterizing the scaffold diversity in public datasets of biological interest. With large collections of high quality public data currently available, we carried out a comparative analysis of current day leads with other biologically relevant datasets.In this study, we note a two-fold enrichment of metabolite scaffolds in drug dataset (42%) as compared to currently used lead libraries (23%). We also note that only a small percentage (5%) of natural product scaffolds space is shared by the lead dataset. We have identified specific scaffolds that are present in metabolites and natural products, with close counterparts in the drugs, but are missing in the lead dataset. To determine the distribution of compounds in physicochemical property space we analyzed the molecular polar surface area, the molecular solubility, the number of rings and the number of rotatable bonds in addition to four well-known Lipinski properties. Here, we note that, with only few exceptions, most of the drugs follow Lipinski's rule. The average values of the molecular polar surface area and the molecular solubility in metabolites is the highest while the number of rings is the lowest. In addition, we note that natural products contain the maximum number of rings and the rotatable bonds than any other dataset under consideration.Currently used lead libraries make little use of the metabolites and natural products scaffold space. We believe that metabolites and natural products are recognized by at least one protein in the biosphere therefore, sampling the fragment and scaffold space of these compounds, along with the knowledge of distribution in physicochemical property space, can result in better lead libraries. Hence, we recommend the greater use of metabolites and natural products while designing lead libraries. Nevertheless, metabolites have a limited distribution in chemical space that limits the usage of metabolites in library design.14 page(s

The stellar halo of the Galaxy

Stellar halos may hold some of the best preserved fossils of the formation history of galaxies. They are a natural product of the merging processes that probably take place during the assembly of a galaxy, and hence may well be the most ubiquitous component of galaxies, independently of their Hubble type. This review focuses on our current understanding of the spatial structure, the kinematics and chemistry of halo stars in the Milky Way. In recent years, we have experienced a change in paradigm thanks to the discovery of large amounts of substructure, especially in the outer halo. I discuss the implications of the currently available observational constraints and fold them into several possible formation scenarios. Unraveling the formation of the Galactic halo will be possible in the near future through a combination of large wide field photometric and spectroscopic surveys, and especially in the era of Gaia.Comment: 46 pages, 16 figures. References updated and some minor changes. Full-resolution version available at http://www.astro.rug.nl/~ahelmi/stellar-halo-review.pd

Ab Initio Identification of Novel Regulatory Elements in the Genome of Trypanosoma brucei by Bayesian Inference on Sequence Segmentation

Background: The rapid increase in the availability of genome information has created considerable demand for both comparative and ab initio predictive bioinformatic analyses. The biology laid bare in the genomes of many organisms is often novel, presenting new challenges for bioinformatic interrogation. A paradigm for this is the collected genomes of the kinetoplastid parasites, a group which includes Trypanosoma brucei the causative agent of human African trypanosomiasis. These genomes, though outwardly simple in organisation and gene content, have historically challenged many theories for gene expression regulation in eukaryotes. Methodology/Principle Findings: Here we utilise a Bayesian approach to identify local changes in nucleotide composition in the genome of T. brucei. We show that there are several elements which are found at the starts and ends of multicopy gene arrays and that there are compositional elements that are common to all intergenic regions. We also show that there is a composition-inversion element that occurs at the position of the trans-splice site. Conclusions/Significance: The nature of the elements discovered reinforces the hypothesis that context dependant RN

Gene expression of circulating tumour cells in breast cancer patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The diagnostic tools to predict the prognosis in patients suffering from breast cancer (BC) need further improvements. New technological achievements like the gene profiling of circulating tumour cells (CTC) could help identify new prognostic markers in the clinical setting. Furthermore, gene expression patterns of CTC might provide important informations on the mechanisms of tumour cell metastasation.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>We performed realtime-PCR and multiplex-PCR analyses following immunomagnetic separation of CTC. Peripheral blood (PB) samples of 63 patients with breast cancer of various stages were analyzed and compared to a control group of 14 healthy individuals. After reverse-transcription, we performed multiplex PCR using primers for the genes <it>ga733.3, muc-1 </it>and <it>c-erbB2. Mammaglobin1, spdef </it>and <it>c-erbB2 </it>were analyzed applying realtime-PCR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>ga733.2 </it>overexpression was found in 12.7% of breast cancer cases, <it>muc-1 </it>in 15.9%, <it>mgb1 </it>in 9.1% and <it>spdef </it>in 12.1%. In this study, <it>c-erbB2 </it>did not show any significant correlation to BC, possibly due to a highly ambient expression. Besides single gene analyses, gene profiles were additionally evaluated. Highly significant correlations to BC were found in single gene analyses of <it>ga733.2 </it>and <it>muc-1 </it>and in gene profile analyses of <it>ga733.3</it>*<it>muc-1 </it>and GA7 <it>ga733.3</it>*muc-1*<it>mgb1</it>*<it>spdef</it>.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our study reveals that the single genes <it>ga733.3, muc-1 </it>and the gene profiles <it>ga733.3</it>*<it>muc-1 </it>and <it>ga733.3</it>*3<it>muc-1</it>*<it>mgb1</it>*<it>spdef </it>can serve as markers for the detection of CTC in BC. The multigene analyses found highly positive levels in BC patients. Our study indicates that not single gene analyses but subtle patterns of multiple genes lead to rising accuracy and low loss of specificity in detection of breast cancer cases.</p

Haploinsufficiency for p190B RhoGAP inhibits MMTV-Neu tumor progression

Introduction: Rho signaling regulates key cellular processes including proliferation, survival, and migration, and it has been implicated in the development of many types of cancer including breast cancer. P190B Rho GTPase activating protein (RhoGAP) functions as a major inhibitor of the Rho GTPases. P190B is required for mammary gland morphogenesis, and overexpression of p190B in the mammary gland induces hyperplastic lesions. Hence, we hypothesized that p190B may play a pivotal role in mammary tumorigenesis. Methods: To investigate the effects of loss of p190B function on mammary tumor progression, p190B heterozygous mice were crossed with an MMTV-Neu breast cancer model. Effects of p190B deficiency on tumor latency, multiplicity, growth, preneoplastic progression and metastasis were evaluated. To investigate potential differences in tumor angiogenesis between the two groups, immunohistochemistry to detect von Willebrand factor was performed and quantified. To examine gene expression of potential mediators of the angiogenic switch, an angiogenesis PCR array was utilized and results were confirmed using immunohistochemistry. Finally, reciprocal transplantation of tumor fragments was performed to determine the impact of stromal deficiency of p190B on tumor angiogenesis. Results: P190B deficiency reduced tumor penetrance (53% of $p190B^{+/-}Neu$ mice vs. 100% of $p190B^{+/+}Neu$ mice formed tumors) and markedly delayed tumor onset by an average of 46 weeks. Tumor multiplicity was also decreased, but an increase in the number of preneoplastic lesions was detected indicating that p190B deficiency inhibited preneoplastic progression. Angiogenesis was decreased in the p190B heterozygous tumors, and expression of a potent angiogenic inhibitor, thrombospondin-1, was elevated in $p190B^{+/-}Neu$ mammary glands. Transplantation of $p190B^{+/-}Neu$ tumor fragments into wild-type recipients restored tumor angiogenesis. Strikingly, $p190B^{+/+}Neu$ tumor fragments were unable to grow when transplanted into $p190B^{+/-}Neu$ recipients. Conclusions: These data suggest that p190B haploinsufficiency in the epithelium inhibits MMTV-Neu tumor initiation. Furthermore, p190B deficiency in the vasculature is responsible, in part, for the inhibition of MMTV-Neu tumor progression

Simulation-Based Estimates of Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Smoking Cessation in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

International audienceBACKGROUND: The medico-economic impact of smoking cessation considering a smoking patient with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is poorly documented. OBJECTIVE: Here, considering a COPD smoking patient, the specific burden of continuous smoking was estimated, as well as the effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation. METHODS: A multi-state Markov model adopting society's perspective was developed. Simulated cohorts of English COPD patients who are active smokers (all severity stages combined or patients with the same initial severity stage) were compared to identical cohorts of patients who quit smoking at cohort initialization. Life expectancy, quality adjusted life-years (QALY), disease-related costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER: £/QALY) were estimated, considering smoking cessation programs with various possible scenarios of success rates and costs. Sensitivity analyses included the variation of model key parameters. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: At the horizon of a smoking COPD patient's remaining lifetime, smoking cessation at cohort intitialization, relapses being allowed as observed in practice, would result in gains (mean) of 1.27 life-years and 0.68 QALY, and induce savings of -1824 £/patient in the disease-related costs. The corresponding ICER was -2686 £/QALY. Smoking cessation resulted in 0.72, 0.69, 0.64 and 0.42 QALY respectively gained per mild, moderate, severe, and very severe COPD patient, but was nevertheless cost-effective for mild to severe COPD patients in most scenarios, even when hypothesizing expensive smoking cessation intervention programmes associated with low success rates. Considering a ten-year time horizon, the burden of continuous smoking in English COPD patients was estimated to cost a total of 1657 M£ while 452516 QALY would be simultaneously lost. CONCLUSIONS: The study results are a useful support for the setting of smoking cessation programmes specifically targeted to COPD patients