Female employment and fertility: the effects of rising female wages

Discussion paper issued by Centre for Economic Performance, London School of EconomicsIncreases in female employment and falling fertility rates have often been linked to rising female wages. However, over the last 30 years the US total fertility rate has been fairly stable while female wages have continued to grow. Over the same period, we observe that women's hours spent on housework have declined, but men's have increased. I propose a model with a shrinking gender wage gap that can capture these trends. While rising relative wages tend to increase women's labor supply and, due to higher opportunity cost, lower fertility, they also lead to a partial reallocation of home production from women to men, and a higher use of labor-saving inputs into home production. I find that both these trends are important in understanding why fertility did not decline to even lower levels. As the gender wage gap declines, a father's time at home becomes more important for raising children. When the disutilities from working in the market and at home are imperfect substitutes, fertility can stabilize, after an initial decline, in times of increasing female market labor. That parents can acquire more market inputs into child care is what I find important in matching the timing of fertility. In a mode l extension, I show that the results are robust to intrahousehold bargaining

Essays in macroeconomics

This thesis provides three essays in macroeconomics. The first chapter analyzes trends in fertility and time allocation. Falling fertility rates have often been linked to rising female wages. However, over the last 30 years the US total fertility rate has been stable while female wages have continued to grow. Over the same period, women's hours spent on housework have declined, but men's have increased. A model with a shrinking gender wage gap is proposed capturing these trends. While rising relative wages increase women's labour supply, they also lead to a reallocation of home production from women to men, and a higher use of labour-saving inputs. Both are important in understanding why fertility did not decline further. The second chapter presents a life-cycle model with heterogeneous households and incomplete financial markets to study the implications of a reform that eliminates capital taxation. In the economy individuals differ in terms of their gender and marital status, and decision making within the couple is modelled as a contract under limited commitment. When capital taxes are set to zero, there is a strong increase in wealth accumulation that originates in dual earner households. Moreover, the policy change has important implications for the division of resources within the family and for households' insurance possibilities. The third chapter is motivated by the dramatic reshuffling in relative positions between East Asian and Latin American economies. It studies the dynamic response of a two- sector, manufacturing and agriculture, economy in the presence of import tariffs and export subsidies on manufacturing goods, similar to those that characterized government policy in these countries. It is shown that the response to these policies depends on the level of productivity in the agricultural sector. Quantitative work, however, finds that differences in agricultural productivities themselves are key in explaining the differential growth experiences

Job Polarization and Structural Change

We document that job polarization – contrary to the consensus – has started as early as the 1950s in the US: middle-wage workers have been losing both in terms of employment and average wage growth compared to low- and high-wage workers. Given that polarization is a long-run phenomenon and closely linked to the shift from manufacturing to services, we propose a structural change driven explanation, where we explicitly model the sectoral choice of workers. Our simple model does remarkably well not only in matching the evolution of sectoral employment, but also of relative wages over the past fifty years

Middle Anisian (Bithynian to Illyrian?, Middle Triassic) Ammonoidea from Rüdersdorf (Brandenburg, Germany) with a revision of Beneckeia Mojsisovics, 1882 and notes on migratory pathways

Bithynian and Pelsonian (Anisian, Middle Triassic) Ammonoidea are generally rare in the Germanic Basin. Here, we describe ammonoids from the Jena and Rüdersdorf formations (Lower Muschelkalk) of Rüdersdorf (Brandenburg, Germany). This locality is peculiar in its isolated situation and its comparatively high diversity in ammonoids. This outcrop yielded several assemblages encompassing eight species: Balatonites ottonis (Buch, 1849), B. balatonicus (Mojsisovics, 1873), B. egregius (Arthaber, 1896), Beneckeia buchi (Alberti, 1834), Bulogites zoldianus (Mojsisovics, 1882), “Ceratites” antecedens (Beyrich, 1858), Discoptychites dux (Giebel, 1853) and Noetlingites strombecki (Griepenkerl, 1860). When the geographic distribution of these species are compared, it becomes evident that immigrants from the southeast and the southwest met in that region. Such immigrations were only possible during transgressions. Balatonites balatonicus, B. egregius and B. zoldianus are recorded from the area for the first time. Beneckeia is revised with a focus on Ben. buchi, one of the few true endemites of the Germanic Basin, using synchrotron data to describe its early ontogeny. The holotype of “Ceratites” antecedens is figured for the first time and a lectotype for Balatonites egregius is designated

Contributions of ambient assisted living for health and quality of life in the elderly and care services - a qualitative analysis from the experts’ perspective of care service professionals

BACKGROUND: Because of the demographic change in industrial countries new technical solutions for the independent living of elderly will become important in the next years. Ambient Assisted Living seeks to address the upcoming challenges by providing technical aids for elderly and care givers. Therefore it is crucial to understand how those socio-technical solutions can address their needs and quality of life (QOL). The aim of this study was to analyse the main needs of dependent elderly and to investigate how different solutions can contribute to health and quality of life. METHODS: A qualitative study design consisting of interviews with 11 professionals of geriatric care organisations was chosen. The data analysis was done by applying the qualitative content analysis by Philipp Mayring. The analysis was based on the basic principle of the bio-psycho-social model of health RESULTS: Ambient Assisted Living solutions and assistive technologies can have positive impacts on different dimensions of health and quality of life. The needs and problems of elderly can be addressed by applying appropriate solutions which influence the physical, mental and social dimensions of quality of life. There are also benefits for social care providers, their staff and caring relatives of impaired elderly. Ambient Assisted Living solutions can also be used as a facilitator for operational optimization of care services. CONCLUSIONS: Solutions for telemedicine and telecare which are connected to Ambient Assisted Living solutions will have the biggest positive impact on care giving services. Also simple technical aids can be beneficial for elderly to enhance QOL by enabling autonomy in their familiar surroundings

Ratcheting ambition to limit warming to 1.5 °C–trade-offs between emission reductions and carbon dioxide removal

Mitigation scenarios to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or less in 2100 often rely on large amounts of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which carry significant potential social, environmental, political and economic risks. A precautionary approach to scenario creation is therefore indicated. This letter presents the results of such a precautionary modelling exercise in which the models C-ROADS and En-ROADS were used to generate a series of 1.5 °C mitigation scenarios that apply increasingly stringent constraints on the scale and type of CDR available. This allows us to explore the trade-offs between near-term stringency of emission reductions and assumptions about future availability of CDR. In particular, we find that regardless of CDR assumptions, near-term ambition increase ('ratcheting') is required for any 1.5 °C pathway, making this letter timely for the facilitative, or Talanoa, dialogue to be conducted by the UNFCCC in 2018. By highlighting the difference between net and gross reduction rates, often obscured in scenarios, we find that mid-term gross CO2emission reduction rates in scenarios with CDR constraints increase to levels without historical precedence. This in turn highlights, in addition to the need to substantially increase CO2reduction rates, the need to improve emission reductions for non-CO2greenhouse gases. Further, scenarios in which all or part of the CDR is implemented as non-permanent storage exhibit storage loss emissions, which partly offset CDR, highlighting the importance of differentiating between net and gross CDR in scenarios. We find in some scenarios storage loss trending to similar values as gross CDR, indicating that gross CDR would have to be maintained simply to offset the storage losses of CO2sequestered earlier, without any additional net climate benefit

What Segments Equity Markets?

We propose a new, valuation-based measure of world equity market segmentation. While we observe decreased levels of segmentation in many developing countries, the level of segmentation is still significant. In contrast to previous research, we characterize the factors that account for variation in market segmentation both through time as well as across countries. While a country's regulation with respect to foreign capital flows is important in determining its level of segmentation, we find that non-regulatory factors are also related to the cross-sectional and time-series variation in the level of segmentation. We identify a country's political risk profile and its stock market development as two additional local segmentation factors as well as the U.S. corporate credit spread as a global segmentation factor.

Corpora and evaluation tools for multilingual named entity grammar development

We present an effort for the development of multilingual named entity grammars in a unification-based finite-state formalism (SProUT). Following an extended version of the MUC7 standard, we have developed Named Entity Recognition grammars for German, Chinese, Japanese, French, Spanish, English, and Czech. The grammars recognize person names, organizations, geographical locations, currency, time and date expressions. Subgrammars and gazetteers are shared as much as possible for the grammars of the different languages. Multilingual corpora from the business domain are used for grammar development and evaluation. The annotation format (named entity and other linguistic information) is described. We present an evaluation tool which provides detailed statistics and diagnostics, allows for partial matching of annotations, and supports user-defined mappings between different annotation and grammar output formats

Job polarization, structural transformation and biased technological change

By reviewing our work in Bárány and Siegel (2018a, 2018b), this article emphasizes the link between job polarization and structural change. We summarize evidence that job polarization in the United States has started as early as the 1950s in the US: middle-wage workers have been losing both in terms of employment and average wage growth compared to low- and high-wage workers. Furthermore, at least since the 1960s the same patterns for both employment and wages are discernible in terms of three broad sectors: low-skilled services, manufacturing and high-skilled services, and these two phenomena are closely linked. Finally, we propose a model where technology evolves at the sector-occupation cell level that can capture the employment reallocation across sectors, occupations, and within sectors. We show that this framework can be used to assess what type of biased technological change is the driver of the observed reallocations. The data suggests that technological change has been biased not only across occupations or sectors, but also across sector-occupation cells