A global assessment of the impact of school closure in reducing COVID-19 spread.

Prolonged school closure has been adopted worldwide to control COVID-19. Indeed, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization figures show that two-thirds of an academic year was lost on average worldwide due to COVID-19 school closures. Such pre-emptive implementation was predicated on the premise that school children are a core group for COVID-19 transmission. Using surveillance data from the Chinese cities of Shenzhen and Anqing together, we inferred that compared with the elderly aged 60 and over, children aged 18 and under and adults aged 19-59 were 75% and 32% less susceptible to infection, respectively. Using transmission models parametrized with synthetic contact matrices for 177 jurisdictions around the world, we showed that the lower susceptibility of school children substantially limited the effectiveness of school closure in reducing COVID-19 transmissibility. Our results, together with recent findings that clinical severity of COVID-19 in children is lower, suggest that school closure may not be ideal as a sustained, primary intervention for controlling COVID-19. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'

Using a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to identify the influencing factors and high-risk areas of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shenzhen.

BACKGROUND:The epidemic of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a severe public health problem in the world and has also brought a high economic and health burden. Furthermore, the prevalence of HFMD varies significantly among different locations. However, there have been few investigations of the effects of socioeconomic factors and air pollution factors on the incidence of HFMD. METHODS:This study collected data on HFMD in Shenzhen, China, from 2012 to 2015. We selected eleven factors as potential risk factors for HFMD. A Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to quantify the influence of the factors on HFMD and to identify the relative risks in different districts. RESULTS:The risk factors of HFMD were the population, population density, concentration of SO2, and concentration of NO2. The relative risks (RRs) were 1.00473 (95% CI: 1.00059-1.00761), 1.00010 (95% CI: 1.00002-1.00016), 1.00215 (95% CI: 1.00170-1.00232) and 1.00058 (95% CI: 1.00028-1.00078), respectively. The protective factors against HFMD were the per capita GDP, the number of public kindergartens, the concentration of PM10, and the concentration of O3. The RRs were 0.98840 (95% CI: 0.98660-0.99026), 0.97686 (95% CI: 0.96946-0.98403), 0.99108 (95% CI: 0.98551-0.99840) and 0.99587 (95% CI: 0.99534-0.99610), respectively. The risk of incidence in Longgang district and Pingshan district decreased, while the risk of incidence in Baoan district increased. CONCLUSIONS:Studies have confirmed that socioeconomic factors and air pollution factors have an impact on the incidence of HFMD in Shenzhen, China. The results will be of great practical significance to local authorities, which is conducive to accurate prevention and can be used to formulate HFMD early warning systems

The Invasion and Reproductive Toxicity of QDs-Transferrin Bioconjugates on Preantral Follicle in vitro

<p>The toxicity of QD has been extensively studied over the past decade. However, the potential toxicity of QDs impedes its use for clinical research. In this work, we established a preantral follicle <i>in vitro</i> culture system to investigate the effects of QD-Transferrin (QDs-Tf) bioconjugates on follicle development and oocyte maturation. The preantral follicles were cultured and exposed to CdTe/ZnTe QDs-Tf bioconjugates with various concentrations and the reproductive toxicity was assessed at different time points post-treatment. The invasion of QDs-Tf for oocytes was verified by laser scanning confocal microscope. Steroid production was evaluated by immunoassay. C-band Giemsa staining was performed to observe the chromosome abnormality of oocytes. The results showed that the QDs-Tf bioconjugates could permeate into granulosa cells and theca cells, but not into oocyte. There are no obvious changes of oocyte diameter, the mucification of cumulus-oocyte-complexes and the occurrence of aneulpoidy as compared with the control group. However, delay in the antrum formation and decrease in the ratio of oocytes with first polar body were observed in QDs-Tf-treated groups. The matured oocytes with first polar body decreased significantly by &#126;16% (from 79.6&#177;10 % to 63&#177;2.9 %) when the concentration of QDs-Tf bioconjugates exceeded 2.89 nmol&#183;L^-1 (P &#60; 0.05). Our results implied that the CdTe/ZnTe QDs-Tf bioconjugates were reproductive toxic for follicle development, and thus also revealed that this <i>in vitro</i> culture system of preantral follicle is a highly sensitive tool for study on the reproductive toxicity of nanoparticles.</p

The reproductive toxicity of CdSe/ZnS quantum dots on the in vivo ovarian function and in vitro fertilization

Despite the usefulness of quantum dots (QDs) in biomedicine and optoelectronics, their toxicity risks remain a major obstacle for clinical usages. Hence, we studied the reproductive toxicity of CdSe/ZnS QDs on two aspects, (i) in vivo ovarian functions and (ii) in vitro fertilization process. The body weight, estrous cycles, biodistribution of QDs, and oocyte maturation are evaluated on female mice treated with QDs. The mRNA level of the follicle-stimulating hormone receptor (FSHr) and luteinizing hormone receptor (LHr) in ovaries are assayed. Then, the matured cumulus-oocyte-complexes are harvested to co-culture with in vitro capacitated sperms, and the in vitro fertilization is performed. The result revealed that QDs are found in the ovaries, but no changes are detected on the behavior and estrous cycle on the female mice. The mRNA downregulations of FSHr and LHr are observed and the number of matured oocytes has shown a significant decrease when the QDs dosage was above 1.0 pmol/day. Additionally, we found the presence of QDs has reduced the in vitro fertilization success rate. This study highly suggests that the exposure of CdSe/ZnS QDs to female mice can cause adverse effects to the ovary functions and such QDs may have limited applications in clinical usage.Published versio

Table S4 from A global assessment of the impact of school closure in reducing COVID-19 spread

Data table associated with the paper, "A global assessment of the impact of school closure in reducing COVID-19 spread"

A data driven agent-based model that recommends non-pharmaceutical interventions to suppress Coronavirus disease 2019 resurgence in megacities

Before herd immunity against Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is achieved by mass vaccination, science-based guidelines for non-pharmaceutical interventions are urgently needed to reopen megacities. This study integrated massive mobile phone tracking records, census data and building characteristics into a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate COVID-19 spread among 11.2 million individuals living in Shenzhen City, China. After validation by local epidemiological observations, the model was used to assess the probability of COVID-19 resurgence if sporadic cases occurred in a fully reopened city. Combined scenarios of three critical non-pharmaceutical interventions (contact tracing, mask wearing and prompt testing) were assessed at various levels of public compliance. Our results show a greater than 50% chance of disease resurgence if the city reopened without contact tracing. However, tracing household contacts, in combination with mandatory mask use and prompt testing, could suppress the probability of resurgence under 5% within four weeks. If household contact tracing could be expanded to work/class group members, the COVID resurgence could be avoided if 80% of the population wear facemasks and 40% comply with prompt testing. Our assessment, including modelling for different scenarios, helps public health practitioners tailor interventions within Shenzhen City and other world megacities under a variety of suppression timelines, risk tolerance, healthcare capacity and public compliance.</p

Varicella incidence distribution in Shenzhen by district from 2013 to 2015.

<p>The shade represents the levels of varicella incidence, cases are per 100,000 population within each district.</p