16 research outputs found
Droughts and dynamics of synoptic processes in the south of the East European Plain at the beginning of the twenty-first century
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Key results and implications from phase 1(c) of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parametrization Schemes
Using atmospheric forcing data generated from a general circulation climate model, sixteen land surface schemes participating in the Project for the Intercomparison of Land-surface Parametrization Schemes (PILPS) were run off-line to equilibrium using forcing data from a GCM representative of a tropical forest and a mid-latitude grassland grid point. The values for each land surface parameter (roughness length, minimum stomatal resistance, soil depth etc.) were provided. Results were quality controlled and analyzed, focusing on the scatter simulated amongst the models. There were large differences in how the models' partitioned available energy between sensible and latent heat. Annually averaged, simulations for the tropical forest ranged by 79 W m-2 for the sensible heat flux and 80 W m-2 for the latent heat flux. For the grassland, simulations ranged by 34 W m-2 for the sensible heat flux and 27 W m-2 for the latent heat flux. Similarly large differences were found for simulated runoff and soil moisture and at the monthly time scale. The models' simulation of annually averaged effective radiative temperature varied with a range, between all the models, of 1.4 K for tropical forest and 2.2 K for the grassland. The simulation of latent and sensible heat fluxes by a standard 'bucket' models was anomalous although this could be corrected by an additional resistance term. These results imply that the current land surface models do not agree on the land surface climate when the atmospheric forcing and surface parameters are prescribed. The nature of the experimental design, it being offline and with artificial forcing, generally precludes judgements concerning the relative quality of any specific model. Although these results were produced de-coupled from a host model, they do cast doubt on the reliability of land surface schemes. It is therefore a priority to resolve the disparity in the simulations, understand the reasons behind the scatter and to determine whether this lack of agreement in decoupled tests is reproduced in coupled experiments
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The project for intercomparison of land-surface parameterization schemes (PILPS) phase 2(c) Red-Arkansas River basin experiment: 3. Spatial and temporal analysis of water fluxes
The water-balance components of 16 Soil-Vegetation Atmospheric Transfer (SVAT) schemes were evaluated by comparing predicted and observed streamflow, predicted evapotranspiration and evapotranspiration inferred from an atmospheric moisture budget analysis, and soil moisture storage changes for a seven-year period (1980-1986) using data from the Red-Arkansas River basins of the Southern Great Plains of the USA. The evaluations support the following suggestions: (a) The mean annual runoff of all models follows, at least generally, the strong climatic East-West gradient of precipitation, although most models predict too much runoff in the dry part of the basin. (b) The mean monthly storage change tends to be underestimated, even though all models capture reasonably well the seasonality of the evapotranspiration. (c) The wide range of conceptualizations used for generation of surface and subsurface runoff strongly affect runoff generation on seasonal, and shorter, time scales. Model responses to summer precipitation ranged from almost no summer runoff (one model) to the (more common) situation of persistent overprediction of summer runoff, especially in the driest part of the basin. (d) All models tended to underpredict evapotranspiration in summer and overpredict in winter. (e) Model-derived mean seasonal cycles of changes in soil moisture storage are qualitatively similar to those inferred from observations, but most models do not predict the decrease in April soil moisture storage and the increase in October that is inferred from observations
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The project for intercomparison of land-surface parameterization schemes (PILPS) phase 2(c) Red-Arkansas River basin experiment: 2. Spatial and temporal analysis of energy fluxes
The energy components of sixteen Soil-Vegetation Atmospheric Transfer (SVAT) schemes were analyzed and intercompared using 10 years of surface meteorological and radiative forcing data from the Red-Arkansas River basin in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. Comparisons of simulated surface energy fluxes among models showed that the net radiation and surface temperature generally had the best agreement among the schemes. On an average (annual and monthly) basis, the estimated latent heat fluxes agreed (to within approximate estimation errors) with the latent heat fluxes derived from a radiosonde-based atmospheric budget method for slightly more than half of the schemes. The sensible heat fluxes had larger differences among the schemes than did the latent heat fluxes, and the model-simulated ground heat fluxes had large variations among the schemes. The spatial patterns of the model-computed net radiation and surface temperature were generally similar among the schemes, and appear reasonable and consistent with observations of related variables, such as surface air temperature. The spatial mean patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes were less similar than for net radiation, and the spatial patterns of the ground heat flux vary greatly among the 16 schemes. Generally, there is less similarity among the models in the temporal (interannual) variability of surface fluxes and temperature than there is in the mean fields, even for schemes with similar mean fields
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The project for intercomparison of land-surface parameterization schemes (PILPS) phase 2(c) Red-Arkansas River basin experiment: 2. Spatial and temporal analysis of energy fluxes
The energy components of sixteen Soil-Vegetation Atmospheric Transfer (SVAT) schemes were analyzed and intercompared using 10 years of surface meteorological and radiative forcing data from the Red-Arkansas River basin in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. Comparisons of simulated surface energy fluxes among models showed that the net radiation and surface temperature generally had the best agreement among the schemes. On an average (annual and monthly) basis, the estimated latent heat fluxes agreed (to within approximate estimation errors) with the latent heat fluxes derived from a radiosonde-based atmospheric budget method for slightly more than half of the schemes. The sensible heat fluxes had larger differences among the schemes than did the latent heat fluxes, and the model-simulated ground heat fluxes had large variations among the schemes. The spatial patterns of the model-computed net radiation and surface temperature were generally similar among the schemes, and appear reasonable and consistent with observations of related variables, such as surface air temperature. The spatial mean patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes were less similar than for net radiation, and the spatial patterns of the ground heat flux vary greatly among the 16 schemes. Generally, there is less similarity among the models in the temporal (interannual) variability of surface fluxes and temperature than there is in the mean fields, even for schemes with similar mean fields
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The project for intercomparison of land-surface parameterization schemes (PILPS) phase 2(c) Red-Arkansas River basin experiment: 1. Experiment description and summary intercomparisons
Sixteen land-surface schemes participating in the project for the Intercomparison of Land-surface Schemes (PILPS) Phase 2(c) were run using 10 years (1979-1988) of forcing data for the Red-Arkansas River basins in the Southern Great Plains region of the United States. Forcing data (precipitation, incoming radiation and surface meteorology) and land-surface characteristics (soil and vegetation parameters) were provided to each of the participating schemes. Two groups of runs are presented. (1) Calibration-validation runs, using data from six small catchments distributed across the modeling domain. These runs were designed to test the ability of the schemes to transfer information about model parameters to other catchments and to the computational grid boxes. (2) Base-runs, using data for 1979-1988, designed to evaluate the ability of the schemes to reproduce measured energy and water fluxes over multiple seasonal cycles across a climatically diverse, continental-scale basin. All schemes completed the base-runs but five schemes chose not to calibrate. Observational data (from 1980-1986) including daily river flows and monthly basin total evaporation estimated through an atmospheric budget analysis, were used to evaluate model performance. In general, the results are consistent with earlier PILPS experiments in terms of differences among models in predicted water and energy fluxes. The mean annual net radiation varied between 80 and 105 W m-2 (excluding one model). The mean annual Bowen ratio varied from 0.52 to 1.73 (also excluding one model) as compared to the data-estimated value of 0.92. The run-off ratios varied from a low of 0.02 to a high of 0.41, as compared to an observed value of 0.15. In general, those schemes that did not calibrate performed worse, not only on the validation catchments, but also at the scale of the entire modeling domain. This suggests that further PILPS experiments on the value of calibration need to be carried out
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Simulations of a boreal grassland hydrology at Valdai, Russia: PILPS phase 2(d)
The Project for the Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) aims to improve understanding and modeling of land surface processes. PILPS phase 2(d) uses a set of meteorological and hydrological data spanning 18 yr (1966-83) from a grassland catchment at the Valdai water-balance research site in Russia. A suite of stand-alone simulations is performed by 21 land surface schemes (LSSs) to explore the LSSs' sensitivity to downward longwave radiative forcing, timescales of simulated hydrologic variability, and biases resulting from single-year simulations that use recursive spinup. These simulations are the first in PILPS to investigate the performance of LSSs at a site with a well-defined seasonal snow cover and frozen soil. Considerable model scatter for the control simulations exists. However, nearly all the LSS scatter in simulated root-zone soil moisture is contained within the spatial variability observed inside the catchment. In addition, all models show a considerable sensitivity to longwave forcing for the simulation of the snowpack, which during the spring melt affects runoff, meltwater infiltration, and subsequent evapotranspiration. A greater sensitivity of the ablation, compared to the accumulation, of the winter snowpaek to the choice of snow parameterization is found. Sensitivity simulations starting at prescribed conditions with no spinup demonstrate that the treatment of frozen soil (moisture) processes can affect the long-term variability of the models. The single-year recursive runs show large biases, compared to the corresponding year of the control run, that can persist through the entire year and underscore the importance of performing multiyear simulations