Regularities and peculiarities of birth schedules in industrialized countries: an analysis of FFS data

Inter-individual diversity of women according to birth numbers (quantum) and birth spacing (tempo) are important for understanding of fertility regimes. Elsewhere, we have shown that diversity with respect to fertility quantum is increasing from older to younger cohorts. The present study looks at tempo dimension by decomposing the diversity of birth schedules. The data set contains pooled FFS data from 19 industrialized countries and covers 11124 women aged 40-44 at survey. The analyses include descriptive characteristics of birth schedules, their classification by cluster analysis, and the identification of some of the underlying factors by two types of regression analyses. The first of them is a multinomial logistic regression linking types of birth schedules with characteristics of women at the time of interview. The second includes event-history analyses examining the transition to second and third conception (leading to birth), where time since previous birth is combined with the current values of the covariates. Age at first birth is a major component of inter-individual differences in birth schedules and it largely determines their clustering. Distributions of second, third, and fourth births over time since the previous births are very similar to each other. The median length of birth intervals is 3-3.5 years and 75% of births occur within 5-6 years after the previous delivery. One cluster stands out of this regularity as it is characterized by long last birth interval of about 11 years. Age distributions of fertility for women from this cluster are bimodal and their shape points at unexpectedly “renewed” fertility careers. Additional births produced by the phenomenon compose about 6% of all births. Regression analyses show that the long last birth interval is associated with new partnerships. Some influence of contraceptive failure can not be excluded, too. More in-depth research is needed to learn about the dynamic factors of birth schedules and particularly about the relationship between entering new partnerships and childbearing.Europe, age distribution, birth spacing, fertility, fertility surveys

Long-term trends in the longevity of scientific elites: evidence from the British and the Russian academies of science.

National science academies represent intellectual elites and vanguard groups in the achievement of longevity. We estimated life expectancy (LE) at age 50 of members of the British Royal Society (RS) for the years 1670-2007 and of members of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) for the years 1750-2006. The longevity of academicians was higher than that of their corresponding national populations, with the gap widening from the 1950s. Since the 1980s, LE in the RS has been higher than the maximum LE among all high-income countries. In each period, LE in the RS was greater than in the RAS, although since the 1950s it has risen in parallel in the two academies. This steep increase shared by academicians in Britain and Russia suggests that general populations have the potential for a substantial increase in survival to high ages

Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, Gini coefficients, health expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total fertility rates

A general algorithm for the decomposition of differences between two values of an aggregate demographic measure in respect to age and other dimensions is proposed. It assumes that the aggregate measure is computed from similar matrices of discrete demographic data for two populations under comparison. The algorithm estimates the effects of replacement for each elementary cell of one matrix by respective cell of another matrix. Application of the algorithm easily leads to the known formula for the age-decomposition of differences between two life expectancies. It also allows to develop new formulae for differences between Gini coefficients (measures of inter-individual variability in age at death) and differences between health expectancies. In the latter case, each age-component is split further into effects of mortality and effects of health. The application of the algorithm enables a numerical decomposition of the differences between total fertility rates and between parity progression ratios by age of the mother and parity. Empirical examples are based on mortality data from the USA, the UK, West Germany, and Poland and on fertility data from Russia.

Preventable mortality in the Russian Federation: a retrospective, regional level study

Background: Avoidable mortality, including both treatable and preventable deaths, is frequently used as an indicator of health system performance. Whilst the term treatable mortality refers to deaths that might be averted by medical interventions, preventable mortality generally reflects the impact of system-wide health policies. The concept of preventable mortality has not been evaluated extensively in the Russian Federation, particularly at the regional or sub-national (oblast) level. Methods: We calculated total preventable mortality as well as individual rates for males and females in each oblast using data from the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database (RusFMD) and computed the contributions of specific preventable causes of death to the overall rates. We also evaluated the relationship between preventable mortality and its main correlates during the years 2014–2018 using panel fixed effects modelling with variables that reflected both, behavioural risk factors and access to health care. Findings: Overall preventable mortality in the Russian Federation has been on a downward trend. Whilst 548 preventable deaths per 100,000 person-years were reported in the year 2000, only 301 per 100,000 person-years were reported in 2018. Whilst mortality due to cancer, cardiovascular, and alcohol-related diseases has declined (albeit unevenly) amongst both males and females, deaths resulting from complications of diabetes and human immunodeficiency virus infection have increased. Our findings also revealed significant heterogeneity in preventable mortality at the oblast level. For example, in 2018, deaths due to preventable causes were concentrated primarily in Siberia and the Far East. Smoking and the availability of nurses were identified as significant correlates of preventable mortality at the oblast level. Interpretations: Efforts designed to strengthen the current health care system, notably those serving the rural and less densely populated oblasts, might reduce the rate of preventable mortality in Russia. These efforts might be coupled with an ongoing focus on programs designed to reduce smoking. Funding: None

The changing relation between alcohol and life expectancy in Russia in 1965-2017.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: In the 1990s, a strong inverse relationship between life expectancy (LE) in Russia and mortality from alcohol poisoning was observed. This association is remarkable as this cause accounts for less than 2% of deaths each year. It can be explained by treating the alcohol poisoning mortality as the best available measure in Russia of the population prevalence of harmful drinking in any year which in turn associated with mortality from a wide range of causes. This study analyses the evolving relationship of LE with this mortality-based measure of harmful drinking since 1965, and places it in a policy context. DESIGN AND METHODS: We examine three periods: 1965-1984, a period of gradual LE decline; 1984-2003, a period of massive LE fluctuations; and 2003-2017, a period of LE improvement. Pearson's correlation coefficients and a linear relationship between annual changes in LE and alcohol poisoning were estimated for each period. RESULTS: The strongest negative correlation between changes in LE and alcohol poisonings was found in 1984-2003. Over the period 2003-2017 a consistent positive LE trend emerged that was statistically independent of alcohol poisoning. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that in the period from the mid-2000s a growth of LE in Russia was to a large extent independent of changes in the population prevalence of harmful drinking. While there has been a reduction in mortality at ages 15-64, at older ages mortality reduction unrelated to alcohol has become an increasingly important driver of overall mortality improvements

Widening life expectancy inequalities across small areas of England.

Comment - No abstract available

Disparities in length of life across developed countries: Measuring and decomposing changes over time within and between country groups

Published version. Source at http://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-016-0094-0. License CC BY 4.0.Background. Over the past half century the global tendency for improvements in longevity has been uneven across countries. This has resulted in widening of inter-country disparities in life expectancy. Moreover, the pattern of divergence appears to be driven in part by processes at the level of country groupings defined in geopolitical terms. A systematic quantitative analysis of this phenomenon has not been possible using demographic decomposition approaches as these have not been suitably adapted for this purpose. In this paper we present an elaboration of conventional decomposition techniques to provide a toolkit for analysis of the inter-country variance, and illustrate its use by analyzing trends in life expectancy in developed countries over a 40-year period. Methods. We analyze trends in the population-weighted variance of life expectancy at birth across 36 developed countries and three country groups over the period 1970–2010. We have modified existing decomposition approaches using the stepwise replacement algorithm to compute age components of changes in the total variance as well as variance between and within groups of Established Market Economies (EME), Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The method is generally applicable to the decomposition of temporal changes in any aggregate index based on a set of populations. Results. The divergence in life expectancy between developed countries has generally increased over the study period. This tendency dominated from the beginning of 1970s to the early 2000s, and reversed only after 2005. From 1970 to 2010, the total standard deviation of life expectancy increased from 2.0 to 5.6 years among men and from 1.0 to 3.6 years among women. This was determined by the between-group effects due to polarization between the EME and the FSU. The latter contrast was largely fueled by the long-term health crisis in Russia. With respect to age, the increase in the overall divergence was attributable to between-country differences in mortality changes at ages 15–64 years compared to those aged 65 and older. The within-group variance increased, especially among women. This change was mostly produced by growing mortality differences at ages 65 and older. Conclusions. From the early 1970s to the mid-2000s, the strong divergence in life expectancy across developed countries was largely determined by the between-group variance and mortality polarization linked to the East–West geopolitical division

Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970-2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data.

BACKGROUND: Since 2010, the rate of improvement in life expectancy in the UK has slowed. We aimed to put this trend in the context of changes over the long term and in relation to a group of other high-income countries. METHODS: We compared sex-specific trends in life expectancy since 1970 and age-specific mortality in England and Wales with median values for 22 high-income countries (in western Europe, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, and the USA). We used annual mortality data (1970-2016) from the Human Mortality Database. FINDINGS: Until 2011-16, male life expectancy in England and Wales followed the median life expectancy of the comparator group. By contrast, female life expectancy was below the median and is among the lowest of the countries considered. In 2011-16, the rate of improvement in life expectancy slowed sharply for both sexes in England and Wales, and slowed more moderately in the comparator group because of negative trends in all adult age groups. This deceleration resulted in a widening gap between England and Wales and the comparators from 2011 onwards. Since the mid-2000s, for the first time, mortality rates in England and Wales among people aged 25-50 years were appreciably higher than in the comparator group. INTERPRETATION: Although many countries have seen slower increases in life expectancy since 2011, trends in England and Wales are among the worst. The poor performance of female life expectancy over the long-term is in part driven by the relative timing of the smoking epidemic across countries. The previously overlooked higher mortality among young working-age adults in England and Wales relative to other countries deserves urgent attention. FUNDING: None