Identifying exogenous and endogenous activity in social media

The occurrence of new events in a system is typically driven by external causes and by previous events taking place inside the system. This is a general statement, applying to a range of situations including, more recently, to the activity of users in Online social networks (OSNs). Here we develop a method for extracting from a series of posting times the relative contributions of exogenous, e.g. news media, and endogenous, e.g. information cascade. The method is based on the fitting of a generalized linear model (GLM) equipped with a self-excitation mechanism. We test the method with synthetic data generated by a nonlinear Hawkes process, and apply it to a real time series of tweets with a given hashtag. In the empirical dataset, the estimated contributions of exogenous and endogenous volumes are close to the amounts of original tweets and retweets respectively. We conclude by discussing the possible applications of the method, for instance in online marketing.Comment: 5 figure

Near-Ultraviolet and Visible Spectroscopy of HAYABUSA Spacecraft Re-entry

HAYABUSA is the first spacecraft ever to land on and lift off from any celestial body other than the moon. The mission, which returned asteroid samples to the Earth while overcoming various technical hurdles, ended on June 13, 2010, with the planned atmospheric re-entry. In order to safely deliver the sample return capsule, the HAYABUSA spacecraft ended its 7-year journey in a brilliant "artificial fireball" over the Australian desert. Spectroscopic observation was carried out in the near-ultraviolet and visible wavelengths between 3000 and 7500 \AA at 3 - 20 \AA resolution. Approximately 100 atomic lines such as Fe I, Mg I, Na I, Al I, Cr I, Mn I, Ni I, Ti I, Li I, Zn I, O I, and N I were identified from the spacecraft. Exotic atoms such as Cu I, Mo I, Xe I and Hg I were also detected. A strong Li I line (6708 \AA) at a height of ~55 km originated from the onboard Li-Ion batteries. The FeO molecule bands at a height of ~63 km were probably formed in the wake of the spacecraft. The effective excitation temperature as determined from the atomic lines varied from 4500 K to 6000 K. The observed number density of Fe I was about 10 times more abundant than Mg I after the spacecraft explosion. N2+(1-) bands from a shock layer and CN violet bands from the sample return capsule's ablating heat shield were dominant molecular bands in the near-ultraviolet region of 3000 - 4000 \AA. OH(A-X) band was likely to exist around 3092 \AA. A strong shock layer from the HAYABUSA spacecraft was rapidly formed at heights between 93 km and 83 km, which was confirmed by detection of N2+(1-) bands with a vibration temperature of ~13000 K. Gray-body temperature of the capsule at a height of ~42 km was estimated to be ~2437 K which is matched to a theoretical prediction. The final message of the HAYABUSA spacecraft and its sample return capsule are discussed through our spectroscopy.Comment: Accepted for publication in PASJ, 22 pages, 7 figures, 6 table

Endosonography-Guided Pancreatic Duct Drainage for Chronic Pancreatitis: A Case Report and Review

A 50-year-old man was admitted to our department, complaining of epigastric pain and high fever. CT revealed a pseudocyst at the pancreatic head with upstream dilatation of the pancreatic duct (PD) and fluid collection surrounding the pancreas. Endosonography-guided PD drainage (ESPD) was performed because of unsuccessful ERCP. With a curved linear array echoendoscope, a 7.2 F catheter was placed in the PD. Laboratory data showed improvement in a few days and revealed disappearance of the fluid collection. Ten days after ESPD, a 7 F stent was placed in the PD via the puncture tract across the papilla of Vater followed by transpapillary replacement with a 10 F stent. CT showed a reduction in diameter of the PD and disappearance of the pseudocyst. ESPD is a feasible and useful procedure in selected patients with chronic pancreatitis showing stenosis of the main PD when transpapillary approach is impossible