How do different forms of early employment instability affect future employment chances? A factorial survey experiment with employers

Purpose Periodic economic instabilities and structural changes in the labour market have given rise to a variety of forms of job insecurity. This article compares the scarring effects of different forms of job insecurity on future employment chances, and how they vary across education groups. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of real vacancies and data collected in a vignette experiment with employers in Switzerland, a country with a strongly developed vocational education and training (VET) system, this article investigates how employers evaluate a period of unemployment, job hopping and work experience in deskilling jobs when hiring candidates. Findings The findings reveal that work in deskilling jobs is by far more scarring than unemployment or job hopping. The study also demonstrates that applicants with upper secondary vocational education are impacted the greatest by all three forms of job insecurity. Originality/value The study makes use of real vacancies. While experiments have the strength of high internal validity, most experimental studies in recruitment research rely on students as respondents. As this study works with real employers hiring for positions it benefits from high external validity

Contribution to Deliverable 8.2 (WP 8): Strategies to improve labour market integration of young people: Comparing policy coordination in nine European countries. Country Report Switzerland

As a Non-EU member Switzerland is not obliged to implement the Youth Guarantee scheme. As such, the national resonance regarding this EU programme is very modest and there is little benefit in measuring the discourse on the Youth Guarantee in Switzerland. In search of a comparable policy event we decided to focus on a public referendum from the year 2003 that advocates the improvement of young people’s prospects in education and in the labour market, which would enable us to draw some equivalent conclusions on the discourse surrounding youth policy in Switzerland. Similar to the EU’s Youth Guarantee, the Swiss referendum Apprenticeship Initiative (“Lehrstelleninitiative”) – proposed a state-regulated guarantee on Vocational Education and Training (VET). First we will provide a summary and analysis of the national discourse on the Apprenticeship Initiative that was clearly rejected in 2003 in section two . The discourse involves the opponents arguing from an economically liberal point of view, showing reluctance to give more power to the central state and the proponents emphasising the decrease in the amount of apprenticeship positions in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Since no national department for youth exists in Switzerland, the authorities responsible for youth policy are located on a cantonal or local level. Hence, we propose to take a look at the cantonal implementation of some youth policies in section three. The Canton of Jura as one of the only two Swiss cantons, which have a youth guarantee in their cantonal constitution, will be analysed as a case study. Three Swiss Active Labour Market Policy (ALMP) measures for young people will be presented in section four. The focus will be on the horizontal and vertical coordination of these measures, how they are implemented in different cantons, and the evaluation of these programmes

From Optimism to Caution: An Analysis of the Seemingly Balanced Policy Discourse on Artificial Intelligence in Education

This study examines relevant policy documents that discuss the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in education and investigates the perspectives of government and non-government stakeholders. The study analyses these documents as discourses reflecting various perspectives and interests, identifying seven key discursive themes. Overall, the discourse around AI in education is marked by discussions that appear to balance the issues, weighing AI’s potential benefits and risks, yet in-depth reflections are rare. This approach can serve as a rhetorical strategy to pre-empt potential criticism without fully addressing the underlying structural issues that have contributed to the very problems technologies are supposed to solve. Furthermore, the narratives often imply the inevitability of innovation through digitalisation, diverting attention away from possible alternatives to technological solutions. This study also examines the narratives in relation to the positions of organisations that have authored these documents and points out how narratives can be strategically utilised to justify investment decisions and may be shaped by collaborations and alliances between stakeholders with varied interests. The diverse motivations of actors involved can influence the tone and focus of the published documents, weaving a policy discourse that illustrates the interplay of actors and interests. By investigating the AI discourse as narratives of power and interests, this study calls for shifting away from a technological solutionistic view, and instead advocates for addressing practices and challenges in education as emerging from specific social, political and economic conditions

Explaining consequences of employment insecurity: The dynamics of scarring in the United Kingdom, Poland and Norway

This deliverable presents three country studies on scarring effects of early employment insecurity in the United Kingdom, Poland and Norway. Traditional analysis of scarring effects has favoured the analysis of the impact of the experience of unemployment on the experience of subsequent unemployment (state dependence) and the monetary costs of previous unemployment in terms of lower subsequent wages (see e.g. Arulampalam, Booth and Taylor 2000; Arulampalam, Gregg and Gregory 2001). The three present country studies go beyond the traditional analysis of scarring effects in order to better understand the trade-offs experienced by young female and male workers when faced with an insecure labour market integration. With national longitudinal data, original methodological designs and research focus, each study contributes in an original way to the research literature. All three studies pay special attention to gender and education as potential moderating variables of scarring effects

Contribution to Deliverable 3.4 (D3.4) – Institutional Determinants of Early Job Insecurity in Nine European Countries : Country Report Switzerland

Compared to other European countries, Switzerland has demonstrated relative economic stability since the economic crisis in 2008/2009. The employment rate of 15 to 24-year-olds in Switzerland registered a fluctuation of maximum 5% during the period from 2008 to 2015. The lowest rate was observed in the 2nd quarter of 2012 (65.2%) and the highest rate in the 3rd quarter of 2010 (70.2%). In comparison, the fluctuation of the employment rate of the general population (15-64 years of age) is even smaller; 82.2% in the 2nd quarter of 2010 was the lowest rate and 84.6% the highest in the last quarter of 2015. Overall, the employment rate among the younger population is less stable than throughout the general population (Bundesamt für Statistik BFS, 2016). As for fixed-term contracts, the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics registered a shared of 19% of fixed-term contracts among the age group 15-24, which is considerably higher than the share in the general labour force population (8% in 2015) (see section 2). In Switzerland, the youth unemployment rate differs from canton to canton. The French- and Italian-speaking parts show a higher rate than the German-speaking part of Switzerland. According to Eurostat (4Q 2015), on average, 9.8% of the young people between 15-24 years of age were unemployed in 2015, which was about double as high as the unemployment rate of the entire work force population (15-65-year-olds: 4.8%). However, compared to other OECD countries the youth unemployment rate in Switzerland is still relatively low (see section 2). According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the share of people in the age group 18-24 in education or training has not varied much from 2008 (63.5%) to 2014 (64.5%). The lowest participation rate was measured in 2009, when 57.6% were in education or training (Eurostat 2016). The educational level in Switzerland has shown some changes regarding the tertiary education. While in 2010 35.3% of the population declared that they had obtained a tertiary degree as their highest attained education level, it was 40.2% in 2014. Furthermore, there has been a slight increase of people, who have completed at least an upper-secondary education (85.8% in 2010 and 88.0% in 2014) (FSO 2016). The OECD data show that the proportion of students enrolling in the general and in the vocational programmes has hardly changed over the years. In 2008 it was 35:65, and in 2013 it was 34:66 (OECD 2015). The number of persons aged from 18 to 24, who have only completed the lower secondary education, and who are currently not in education or training, has slightly decreased over the years: While it was 7.6% in 2010, it dropped to 6.3% by 2014 (FSO 2016). The overall positive economic situation in Switzerland provides favourable conditions for a stable labour market. Compared to other countries Switzerland has a low youth as well as general unemployment rate

Arbeitslosigkeit mindert Jobchancen

Angesichts des raschen strukturellen Wandels im Arbeitsmarkt ist ein geradliniger Berufsverlauf nach der Lehre nicht mehr die Norm. Es ist anzunehmen, dass durch Arbeitslosigkeit oder Berufswechsel bedingte Brüche im Berufsverlauf in Zukunft häufiger werden. In diesem Kontext stellt sich die Frage, wie Arbeitgeber bei der Besetzung von offenen Stellen solche Brüche in den Lebensläufen junger Stellensuchender bewerten. Eine Studie, welche die Frage nach einer möglichen Beeinträchtigung der Bewerbungschancen junger Stellensuchender nach einer Phase der Arbeitslosigkeit ins Zentrum stellt, zeigt: Arbeitslosigkeit beeinträchtigt in der Schweiz die Bewerbungschancen von Stellensuchenden. Eine abgeschlossene Berufsausbildung schützt dabei nicht vor den problematischen Folgen

How unemployment scarring affects skilled young workers: evidence from a factorial survey of Swiss recruiters

We ask how employers contribute to unemployment scarring in the recruitment process in the German-speaking part of Switzerland. By drawing on recruitment theories, we aim to better understand how recruiters assess different patterns of unemployment in a job candidate’s CV and how this affects the chances of young applicants being considered for a vacancy. We argue that in contexts with tight school-work linkage and highly standardised Vocational Education and Training (VET) systems, the detrimental effect of early unemployment depends on how well the applicant’s profile matches the requirements of the advertised position. To test this assumption, we surveyed Swiss recruiters who were seeking to fill positions during the time of data collection. We employed a factorial survey experiment that tested how the (un)employment trajectories in hypothetical young job applicants’ CVs affected their chances of being considered for a real vacancy. Our results show that unemployment decreases the perceived suitability of an applicant for a specific job, which implies there is a scarring effect of unemployment that increases with the duration of being unemployed. But we also found that these effects are moderated by how well the applicant’s profile matches the job’s requirements. Overall, the worse the match between applicant’s profile and the job profile, the smaller are the scarring effects of unemployment. In sum, our findings contribute to the literature by revealing considerable heterogeneity in the scarring effects of unemployment. Our findings further suggest that the scarring effects of unemployment need to be studied with regard to country-specific institutional settings, the applicants’ previous education and employment experiences, and the job characteristics

Le chômage, ennemi de l’employabilité

Avec un marché de l’emploi en pleine mutation structurelle, un parcours rectiligne après l’apprentissage ne constitue plus la norme. Tout porte à croire que le nombre d’interruptions de carrière – forcées ou volontaires – ne cessera d’augmenter. Dans ces circonstances, la question est de savoir comment les employeurs désireux de repourvoir un poste perçoivent ces parenthèses dans le curriculum des jeunes à la recherche d’un emploi. Une étude récente menée en Suisse parvient à la conclusion qu’une période de chômage porte atteinte à l’employabilité, et que ce phénomène n’épargne pas les détenteurs d’un certificat fédéral de capacité

Explaining employers’ hiring decisions: A comparative study of employers’ risk assessment

In order to investigate the scarring effect of early job insecurity on future employment chances we have implemented a factorial survey experiment with recruiters based on real vacancies in Bulgaria, Greece, Norway and Switzerland. We contribute to recruitment research at least in three ways: First, the multinational design allows us to run comparative analysis across countries, which are carried out along the national dimensions youth unemployment rate, employment protection regulation and type of educational system. Second, we differentiate between two different forms of early job insecurity – unemployment and work experience in deskilling jobs, and we demonstrate that the sole focus on unemployment, as it is the case in the prevalent labour market research, is not sufficient in order to fully understand labour market outcomes caused by different forms of job insecurities. Third, since our sample consists of real recruiters who were hiring for current jobs at the time when the study was carried out, we provide a unique cross-country data set of high external validity. Our findings suggest that scarring effects of early job insecurity vary across countries and across occupational fields, and while scarring caused by work experience in deskilling jobs seems to be enforced by strong employment protection regulations, unemployment scarring seems to stronger where national unemployment is low. Further, the differences in recruiter’s evaluation across occupational fields indicate that signalling value of education may vary depending on specific sectors. Not at least, we contribute to debates around active labour market policies, arguing that measures aiming at quick labour market reintegration without consideration of job quality may not be the most sustainable solution, as work experience in a deskilling job does not lead to better recruiter’s evaluation

Understanding unemployment scars: A vignette Experiment of employers' decisions in Bulgaria, Greece, Norway and Switzerland

In an effort to broaden the understanding of how early job insecurity can affect an individual’s future career from an employer’s perspective NEGOTIATE conducted an employer‐sided survey with an integrated multidimensional vignette experiment in Bulgaria, Greece, Norway and Switzerland. This report documents the sampling and data‐collection in the four countries. In addition we present some basic descriptive results from the survey. Data from the survey will be available for public use, following a quarantine period after the end of the project, through the data repository at the Norwegian Centre for Research Data (NSD). Theoretical considerations underpinning the survey, state of research and a further description of the methodological approach is previously published in the NEGOTIATE Working paper D7.1 Studying employer’s risk assessment and the role of institutions: An experimental design (Shi, L.P, C. Imdorf and R. Samuel 2016)