Russia in Transition

The history of transition in Russia is analyzed in this paper. Issues ranging from managerial incentives to the changing structure of trade are considered in an attempt to present a comprehensive sketch of the state of the Russian economy. The transition in Russia can be compared with demobilization. Demobilization process is often accompanied by large output declines. For instance, during the post World War II demobilization the US GNP declined by 25%. In light of this, the great contraction of the Russian economy does not appear to be a major outlier when the militaristic nature of the Soviet economy is taken into account. We point out a previously unexplored factor detrimental for incentives of Russian managers, which we call soft taxation. Soft taxation is a free market analog of soft-budget constraints. Due to the inefficiency of institutions, managers have an incentive to take costly actions in order to signal that the profitability of the firm is low. Also, we suggest a few indices of aggregate economic shocks including one based on the structure of foreign trade. The values of the indices of aggregate shocks for the Russian economy are compared to those of several other countries. The data seem to indicate that the changes in the structure of Russian trade have been far greater than in non-transition economies. However, other indices of economic adjustment do not paint a picture of a rapid transition.

An Optimized Resource Allocation Approach to Identify and Mitigate Supply Chain Risks using Fault Tree Analysis

Low volume high value (LVHV) supply chains such as airline manufacturing, power plant construction, and shipbuilding are especially susceptible to risks. These industries are characterized by long lead times and a limited number of suppliers that have both the technical know-how and manufacturing capabilities to deliver the requisite goods and services. Disruptions within the supply chain are common and can cause significant and costly delays. Although supply chain risk management and supply chain reliability are topics that have been studied extensively, most research in these areas focus on high vol- ume supply chains and few studies proactively identify risks. In this research, we develop methodologies to proactively and quantitatively identify and mitigate supply chain risks within LVHV supply chains. First, we propose a framework to model the supply chain system using fault-tree analysis based on the bill of material of the product being sourced. Next, we put forward a set of mathematical optimization models to proactively identify, mitigate, and resource at-risk suppliers in a LVHV supply chain with consideration for a firm’s budgetary constraints. Lastly, we propose a machine learning methodology to quan- tify the risk of an individual procurement using multiple logistic regression and industry available data, which can be used as the primary input to the fault tree when analyzing overall supply chain system risk. Altogether, the novel approaches proposed within this dissertation provide a set of tools for industry practitioners to predict supply chain risks, optimally choose which risks to mitigate, and make better informed decisions with respect to supplier selection and risk mitigation while avoiding costly delays due to disruptions in LVHV supply chains

Relational Solidarity and Climate Change

The evidence is overwhelming that members of particularly wealthy and industry-owning segments of Western societies have much larger carbon footprints than most other humans, and thereby contribute far more than their “fair share” to the enormous problem of climate change. Nonetheless, in this paper we shall counsel against a strategy focused primarily on blaming and shaming and propose, instead, a change in the ethical conversation about climate change. We recommend a shift in the ethical framework from a focus on the role of individual agents and a conversation about guilt; in its place, we propose a relational approach to public health ethics that is centered around the idea of relational solidarity. We begin by briefly reviewing the most common—and woefully inadequate—approach in the West to reducing emissions and responding to the health-related impacts of climate change. We then go on to propose a relational approach to public health ethics as an alternative ethical framework that better fits the moral problems associated with climate change and holds promise for a more meaningful response

Wood and Stem Anatomy of Convolvulaceae

Quantitative and qualitative features of wood and stem anatomy are presented for 44 collections of 16 genera and 35 species ofConvolvulaceae. Markedly furrowed xylem characterizes the genera of tribe Cresseae. Successive cambia occur in 11 of the genera studied. Large patches of axial parenchyma occur in many of these; only in one species was interxylary phloem (formed internally by the cambium) observed in the parenchyma patches. Intraxylary phloem at the periphery of the pith is universal in Convolvulaceae, but newly reported is the fact that in many species, cambial activity adds secondary phloem to the intraxylary phloem strands. These cambia were also observed to add limited amounts of secondary xylem externally in Ericybe and Operculina. Fragmentation of the vascular cylinder by growth from the inner cambia leads to initiation of radially oriented cambia (ray cambia) along the ray zone where fracture occurs. Three new types of vessel restriction patterns (nonrandom distribution of vessels in wood or absence of vessels within some parts of the secondary xylem) are reported for the family (and dicotyledons). Rays are predominantly uniseriate; ray histology and quantitative vessel features show little change ontogenetically in species with successive cambia, suggesting that this cambial mode deters the kinds of progressive changes that occur in dicotyledons with a single cambium. Vessels are much wider in lianoid Convolvulaceae than in shrubby species; the lianoid species of Ipomoea have vessels twice the diameter of those in arborescent species of Ipomoea. Conjunctive parenchyma may serve for water storage in I. arborescens and other species, but this tissue and abundance of axial parenchyma in lianas might also aid flexibility and damage resistance. Septate fiber-tracheids and septate libriform fibers occur in a few species and represent tracheid dimorphism. Occurrence of tracheids together with fibriform vessel elements in woods of many Convolvulaceae suggests relationship of Convolvulaceae to Polemoniaceae and Hydrophyllaceae; intraxylary phloem and other wood features suggest relationship between Convolvulaceae and Solanaceae

Contaminated water treatment

Method and system for processing of a liquid ("contaminant liquid") containing water and containing urine and/or other contaminants in a two step process. Urine, or a contaminated liquid similar to and/or containing urine and thus having a relatively high salt and urea content is passed through an activated carbon filter to provide a resulting liquid, to remove most of the organic molecules. The resulting liquid is passed through a semipermeable membrane from a membrane first side to a membrane second side, where a fortified drink having a lower water concentration (higher osmotic potential) than the resulting liquid is positioned. Osmotic pressure differential causes the water, but not most of the remaining inorganic (salts) contaminant(s) to pass through the membrane to the fortified drink. Optionally, the resulting liquid is allowed to precipitate additional organic molecules before passage through the membrane

A Phase 1 Study of Intravenous Busulfan as a Conditioning Regimen for Multiple Myeloma

The efficacy of melphalan (MEL) 140 mg/m 2 pre-transplant conditioning versus MEL 200 mg/m 2 for the elderly is still debated. We hypothesized that single-agent intravenous busulfan (BU) would show significant anti-myeloma efficacy and be better tolerated by elderly patients. A prospective 3+3 dose escalation study enrolled symptomatic multiple myeloma (MM) patients 65 years or older with SWOG performance 0–2 for treatment with intravenous BU pre-transplant at different administration levels. The primary objective was to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of BU that could be safely given over the least number of days. All patients, except one, received maintenance treatment post-transplant, mostly for 2 years. We enrolled 13 patients, mean age of 73 years (range 68–80). Pharmacokinetic analysis showed no greater than 2% accumulation in the 13 patients, confirming a lack of accumulation in the multi-dose regimen. No deaths occurred in the peri-transplant period. Grade 3/4 adverse effects were hematological, no dose-limiting toxicity was observed and MTD was not reached. Three patients developed grade 3 mucositis but none developed veno-occlusive disease. Ten (77%) patients achieved a complete remission (CR) post-transplant with a remarkably long average time to best response of 6.7 months (range: 6–14 m), and two attained a partial response. Median overall survival was 84 months (95% CI, 21–104) and the median progression-free survival was 60 months (95% CI, 9–93). Our results suggest that IV BU could be an alternative conditioning regimen to MEL 140 in elderly patients with MM, and supports future randomized trials