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A multifault earthquake threat for the Seattle metropolitan region revealed by mass tree mortality
This is the final version. Available on open access from the American Association for the Advancement of Science via the DOI in this recordData and materials availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and Supplementary Materials. The MacBlo, Price Lake, Hamma Hamma, Lake Washington, West Point log, Lake Sammamish, and Dry Bed Lake tree-ring measurement data will be available upon publication through the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration World Data Service for Paleoclimatology International Tree-Ring Databank (www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology/tree-ring) as datasets CAN382 and WA155 to WA160. All radiocarbon data are provided in table S2.Compound earthquakes involving simultaneous ruptures along multiple faults often define a region’s upper threshold of maximum magnitude. Yet, the potential for linked faulting remains poorly understood given the infrequency of these events in the historic era. Geological records provide longer perspectives, although temporal uncertainties are too broad to clearly pinpoint single multifault events. Here, we use dendrochronological dating and a cosmogenic radiation pulse to constrain the death dates of earthquake-killed trees along two adjacent fault zones near Seattle, Washington to within a 6-month period between the 923 and 924 CE growing seasons. Our narrow constraints conclusively show linked rupturing that occurred either as a single composite earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.8 or as a closely spaced double earthquake sequence with estimated magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.3. These scenarios, which are not recognized in current hazard models, increase the maximum earthquake size needed for seismic preparedness and engineering design within the Puget Sound region of >4 million residents.U.S. Geological Surve