Covid-19: accelerating recovery

Covid-19 infections and related illness and death are rightly at the forefront of our minds. It is critical that we consider how to reduce infections, treat those who are ill and protect health systems. We must, however, also consider how the pandemic is affecting the families of those infected, and how interventions to prevent the spread of the virus come with large negative economic and social consequences. We must begin to identify the ways in which we can soften these blows and recover from the negative consequences over the medium and long-term. We highlight here the importance of moving away the tendency to search for interventions to improve one outcome at a time. It will be essential, particularly in highly resource constrained settings, to look for accelerators, interventions which improve multiple outcomes simultaneously. We discuss how this will be especially important for groups who are at particular risk at this time, including of long-term negative outcomes. These include very young children, adolescents and those who have limited capacity to benefit from narrow interventions given critical needs in multiple domains. Searching for accelerators requires that we take a step back and look to identify common causes of negative outcomes and consider how we might address them. For many countries, recovery from this epidemic will be highly constrained by the limited availability of financial resources. Wise investments will be especially important at this time

Studies of Tiros and Nimbus radiometric observations Final report

Data analyses of Tiros and Nimbus radiometric observation

The Importance of DNA Repair in Tumor Suppression

The transition from a normal to cancerous cell requires a number of highly specific mutations that affect cell cycle regulation, apoptosis, differentiation, and many other cell functions. One hallmark of cancerous genomes is genomic instability, with mutation rates far greater than those of normal cells. In microsatellite instability (MIN tumors), these are often caused by damage to mismatch repair genes, allowing further mutation of the genome and tumor progression. These mutation rates may lie near the error catastrophe found in the quasispecies model of adaptive RNA genomes, suggesting that further increasing mutation rates will destroy cancerous genomes. However, recent results have demonstrated that DNA genomes exhibit an error threshold at mutation rates far lower than their conservative counterparts. Furthermore, while the maximum viable mutation rate in conservative systems increases indefinitely with increasing master sequence fitness, the semiconservative threshold plateaus at a relatively low value. This implies a paradox, wherein inaccessible mutation rates are found in viable tumor cells. In this paper, we address this paradox, demonstrating an isomorphism between the conservatively replicating (RNA) quasispecies model and the semiconservative (DNA) model with post-methylation DNA repair mechanisms impaired. Thus, as DNA repair becomes inactivated, the maximum viable mutation rate increases smoothly to that of a conservatively replicating system on a transformed landscape, with an upper bound that is dependent on replication rates. We postulate that inactivation of post-methylation repair mechanisms are fundamental to the progression of a tumor cell and hence these mechanisms act as a method for prevention and destruction of cancerous genomes.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures; Approximation replaced with exact calculation; Minor error corrected; Minor changes to model syste

Investigation of mesoscale cloud features viewed by LANDSAT

The author has identified the following significant results. Some 50 LANDSAT images displaying mesoscale cloud features were analyzed. This analysis was based on the Rayleigh-Kuettner model describing the formation of that type of mesoscale cloud feature. This model lends itself to computation of the average wind speed in northerly flow from the dimensions of the cloud band configurations measured from a LANDSAT image. In nearly every case, necessary conditions of a curved wind profile and orientation of the cloud streets within 20 degrees of the direction of the mean wind in the convective layer were met. Verification of the results by direct observation was hampered, however, by the incompatibility of the resolution of conventional rawinsonde observations with the scale of the banded cloud patterns measured from LANDSAT data. Comparison seems to be somewhat better in northerly flows than in southerly flows, with the largest discrepancies in wind speed being within 8m/sec, or a factor of two

Understanding Mental Health in the Context of Adolescent Pregnancy and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review Identifying a Critical Evidence Gap

Adolescent (10–19 years) mental health remains an overlooked global health issue. Rates of adolescent pregnancy within sub-Saharan Africa are some of the highest in the world and occur at the epicentre of the global HIV epidemic. Both experiencing adolescent pregnancy and living with HIV have been found to be associated with adverse mental health outcomes, when investigated separately. Poor mental health may have implications for both parent and child. The literature regarding mental health within groups experiencing both HIV and adolescent pregnancy is yet to be summarised. This systematic review sought to identify (1) the prevalence/occurrence of common mental disorder amongst adolescents who are living with HIV and have experienced pregnancy, (inclusive of adolescent fathers) in sub-Saharan Africa (2) risk and protective factors for common mental disorder among this group, and (3) interventions (prevention/treatment) for common mental disorder among this group. A systematic search of electronic databases using pre-defned search terms, supplemented by hand-searching, was undertaken in September 2020. One author and an independent researcher completed a title and abstract screening of results from the search. A full-text search of all seemingly relevant manuscripts (both quantitative and qualitative) was undertaken and data extracted using pre-determined criteria. A narrative synthesis of included studies is provided. Quality and risk of bias within included studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. A systematic keyword search of databases and follow-up hand searching identifed 2287 unique records. Of these, thirty-eight full-text quantitative records and seven fulltext qualitative records were assessed for eligibility. No qualitative records met the eligibility criteria for inclusion within the review. One quantitative record was identifed for inclusion. This study reported on depressive symptomology amongst 14 pregnant adolescents living with HIV in Kenya, identifying a prevalence of 92.9%. This included study did not meet the high methodological quality of this review. No studies were identifed reporting on risk and protective factors for common mental disorder, and no studies were found identifying any specifc interventions for common mental disorder for this group, either for prevention or for treatment. The limited data identifed within this review provides no good quality evidence relating to the prevalence of common mental disorder among adolescents living with HIV who have experienced pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa. No data was available relating to risk and protective factors or interventions for psychological distress amongst this group. This systematic review identifes a need for rigorous evidence regarding the mental health of pregnant and parenting adolescents living with HIV, and calls for granular interrogation of existing data to further our understanding of the needs of this group. The absence of research on this topic (both quantitative and qualitative) is a critical evidence gap, limiting evidence-based policy and programming responses, as well as regional development opportunities

Decade of research into the acceptability of interventions aimed at improving adolescent and youth health and social outcomes in Africa: a systematic review and evidence map

OBJECTIVE: Interventions aimed at improving adolescent health and social outcomes are more likely to be successful if the young people they target find them acceptable. However, no standard definitions or indicators exist to assess acceptability. Acceptability research with adolescents in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) is still limited and no known reviews systhesise the evidence from Africa. This paper maps and qualitatively synthesises the scope, characteristics and findings of these studies, including definitions of acceptability, methods used, the type and objectives of interventions assessed, and overall findings on adolescent acceptability. DESIGN: We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies assessing intervention acceptability with young adults (aged 10–24) in Africa, published between January 2010 and June 2020. DATA SOURCES: Web of Science, Medline, PsycINFO, SociIndex, CINAHL, Africa-wide, Academic Search Complete and PubMed were searched through July 2020. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Papers were selected based on the following inclusion criteria: if they (1) reported primary research assessing acceptability (based on the authors’ definition of the study or findings) of one or more intervention(s) with adolescents and young adults 10–24; (2) assessed acceptability of intervention(s) aimed at positively influencing one or more development outcome(s), as defined by sustainable development goal (SDG) indicators; (3) reported on research conducted in Africa; (4) were in the English Language; (5) were peer-reviewed and and (6) were published between 1 January 2010 and 30 June 2020. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Abstracts were reviewed independently by the two first authors to determine relevance. Full text of potentially eligible studies were retrieved and independently examined by the same two authors; areas of disagreement or lack of clarity were resolved through discussion by the two authors and—where necessary—the assessment of a third author. RESULTS: 55 studies were considered eligible for inclusion in the review. Most studies were conducted in Southern Africa, of which 32 jointly in South Africa and Uganda. The majority of interventions assessed for acceptability could be classified as HIV or HPV vaccine interventions (10), E-health (10), HIV testing interventions (8), support group interventions (7) and contraceptive interventions (6). The objectives of most interventions were linked to SDG3, specifically to HIV and sexual and reproductive health. Acceptability was overall high among these published studies. 22 studies provided reasons for acceptability or lack thereof, some specific to particular types of interventions and others common across intervention types. CONCLUSIONS: Our review exposes considerable scope for future acceptability research and review work. This should include extending acceptability research beyond the health (and particularly HIV) sector and to regions in Africa where this type of research is still scarce; including adolescents earlier, and potentially throughout the intervention process; further conceptualising the construct of acceptability among adolescents and beyond; and examining the relationship between acceptability and uptake

In the Interests of clients or commerce? Legal aid, supply, demand, and 'ethical indeterminacy' in criminal defence work

As a professional, a lawyer's first duty is to serve the client's best interests, before simple monetary gain. In criminal defence work, this duty has been questioned in the debate about the causes of growth in legal aid spending: is it driven by lawyers (suppliers) inducing unnecessary demand for their services or are they merely responding to increased demand? Research reported here found clear evidence of a change in the handling of cases in response to new payment structures, though in ways unexpected by the policy's proponents. The paper develops the concept of 'ethical indeterminacy' as a way of understanding how defence lawyers seek to reconcile the interests of commerce and clients. Ethical indeterminacy suggests that where different courses of action could each be said to benefit the client, the lawyer will tend to advise the client to decide in the lawyer's own interests. Ethical indeterminacy is mediated by a range of competing conceptions of 'quality' and 'need'. The paper goes on to question the very distinction between 'supply' and 'demand' in the provision of legal services

A conceptual framework and exploratory model for health and social intervention acceptability among African adolescents and youth

Intervention acceptability has become an increasingly key consideration in the development, evaluation and implementation of health and social interventions. However, to date this area of investigation has been constrained by the absence of a consistent definition of acceptability, comprehensive conceptual frameworks disaggregating its components, and few reliable assessment measures. This paper aims to contribute to this gap, by proposing a conceptual framework and exploratory model for acceptability with a specific priority population for health and developmental interventions: adolescents and youth in Africa. We document our multi-staged approach to model development, comprising both inductive and deductive components, and both systematic and interpretative review methods. This included thematic analyses of respective acceptability definitions and findings, from 55 studies assessing acceptability of 60 interventions conducted with young people aged 10–24 in (mainly Southern and Eastern) Africa over a decade; a consideration of these findings in relation to Sekhon et al.‘s Theoretical Framework of Acceptability (TFA); a cross-disciplinary review of acceptability definitions and models; a review of key health behavioural change models; and expert consultation with interdisciplinary researchers. Our proposed framework incorporates nine component constructs: affective attitude, intervention understanding, perceived positive effects, relevance, perceived social acceptability, burden, ethicality, perceived negative effects and self-efficacy. We discuss the rationale for the inclusion and definition of each component, highlighting key behavioural models that adopt similar constructs. We then extend this framework to develop an exploratory model for acceptability with young people, that links the framework components to each other and to intervention engagement. Acceptability is represented as an emergent property of a complex, adaptive system of interacting components, which can influence user engagement directly and indirectly, and in turn be influenced by user engagement. We discuss opportunities for applying and further refining or developing these models, and their value as a point of reference for the development of acceptability assessment tools