The two sided parsec scale structure of the Low Luminosity Active Galactic Nucleus in NGC 4278

We present new Very Long Baseline Interferometry observations of the LINER galaxy NGC 4278. The observations were taken with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) and a single antenna of the Very Large Array (VLA) at 5 GHz and 8.4 GHz and have a linear resolution of <0.1 pc. Our radio data reveal a two sided structure, with symmetric S-shaped jets emerging from a flat spectrum core. We fit the jet brightness with gaussian components, which we identify from a previous observation taken five years before. By comparing the positions of the components in the two epochs, we measure motions between 0.45 +/- 0.14 and 3.76 +/- 0.65 mas, corresponding to apparent velocities < 0.2c, and to ages in the range 8.3 - 65.8 years. Assuming that the radio morphology is intrinsically symmetric and its appearance is governed by Doppler beaming effects, we find that NGC4278 has mildly relativistic jets (beta ~ 0.75), closely aligned to the line-of-sight (2 degrees < theta < 4 degrees). Alternatively, the source could be oriented at a larger angle and asymmetries could be related to the jet interaction with the surrounding medium. We also present new simultaneous VLA observations between 1.4 and 43 GHz, and a 5 GHz light curve between 1972 and 2003. The radio spectrum can be fit by a relatively steep power-law (alpha = 0.54). We find significant variability at 5 GHz. All these arguments indicate that the radiation from NGC 4278 is emitted via the synchrotron process by relativistic particles accelerated by a supermassive black hole. Despite a much lower power, this is the same process that takes place in ordinary radio loud AGNs.Comment: 29 pages, 9 figures, ApJ accepte

A multiscale asymptotic theory of extratropical wave–mean flow interaction

Multiscale asymptotic methods are used to derive wave-activity equations for planetary and synoptic scale eddies and their interactions with a zonal mean flow. The eddies are assumed to be of small amplitude, and the synoptic-scale zonal and meridional length scales are taken to be equal. Under these assumptions, the zonal-mean and planetary-scale dynamics are planetary geostrophic (i.e. dominated by vortex stretching), and the interaction between planetary and synoptic scale eddies occurs only through the zonal mean flow or through diabatic processes. Planetary scale heat fluxes are shown to enter the angular momentum budget through meridional mass redistribution. After averaging over synoptic length and time scales, momentum fluxes disappear from the synoptic-scale wave-activity equation whilst synoptic-scale heat fluxes disappear from the baroclinicity equation, leaving planetary-scale heat fluxes as the only adiabatic term coupling the baroclinic and barotropic components of the zonal mean flow. In the special case of weak planetary waves, the decoupling between the baroclinic and barotropic parts of the flow is complete with momentum fluxes driving the barotropic zonal mean flow, heat fluxes driving the wave activity, and diabatic processes driving baroclinicity. These results help explain the apparent decoupling between the baroclinic and barotropic components of flow variability recently identified in observations, and may provide a means of better understanding the link between thermodynamic and dynamic aspects of climate variability and change

The effect of non-uniform radiative damping on the zonal-mean dynamics of the extratropical middle atmosphere

The effect of spatial and temporal variations in the radiative damping rate on the response to an imposed forcing or diabatic heating is examined in a zonal-mean model of the middle atmosphere. Attention is restricted to the extratropics, where a linear approach is viable. It is found that regions with weak radiative damping rates are more sensitive in terms of temperature to the remote influence of the diabatic circulation. The delay in the response in such regions can mean that ‘downward’ control is not achieved on seasonal time-scales. A seasonal variation in the radiative damping rate modulates the evolution of the response and leaves a transient-like signature in the annual mean temperature field. Several idealized examples are considered, motivated by topical questions. It is found that wave drag outside the polar vortex can significantly affect the temperatures in its interior, so that high-latitude, high-altitude gravity-wave drag is not the only mechanism for warming the southern hemisphere polar vortex. Diabatic mass transport through the 100 hPa surface is found to lag the seasonal evolution of the wave drag that drives the transport, and thus cannot be considered to be in the downward control regime. On the other hand, the seasonal variation of the radiative damping rate is found to make only a weak contribution to the annual mean temperature increase that has been observed above the ozone hole. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

A robust mechanism for strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in response to climate change: critical-layer control of subtropical wave breaking

Climate models consistently predict a strengthened Brewer–Dobson circulation in response to greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced climate change. Although the predicted circulation changes are clearly the result of changes in stratospheric wave drag, the mechanism behind the wave-drag changes remains unclear. Here, simulations from a chemistry–climate model are analyzed to show that the changes in resolved wave drag are largely explainable in terms of a simple and robust dynamical mechanism, namely changes in the location of critical layers within the subtropical lower stratosphere, which are known from observations to control the spatial distribution of Rossby wave breaking. In particular, the strengthening of the upper flanks of the subtropical jets that is robustly expected from GHG-induced tropospheric warming pushes the critical layers (and the associated regions of wave drag) upward, allowing more wave activity to penetrate into the subtropical lower stratosphere. Because the subtropics represent the critical region for wave driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, the circulation is thereby strengthened. Transient planetary-scale waves and synoptic-scale waves generated by baroclinic instability are both found to play a crucial role in this process. Changes in stationary planetary wave drag are not so important because they largely occur away from subtropical latitudes

Persistence and photochemical decay of springtime total ozone anomalies in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

The persistence and decay of springtime total ozone anomalies over the entire extratropics (midlatitudes plus polar regions) is analysed using results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a comprehensive chemistry-climate model. As in the observations, interannual anomalies established through winter and spring persist with very high correlation coefficients (above 0.8) through summer until early autumn, while decaying in amplitude as a result of photochemical relaxation in the quiescent summertime stratosphere. The persistence and decay of the ozone anomalies in CMAM agrees extremely well with observations, even in the southern hemisphere when the model is run without heterogeneous chemistry (in which case there is no ozone hole and the seasonal cycle of ozone is quite different from observations). However in a version of CMAM with strong vertical diffusion, the northern hemisphere anomalies decay far too rapidly compared to observations. This shows that ozone anomaly persistence and decay does not depend on how the springtime anomalies are created or on their magnitude, but reflects the transport and photochemical decay in the model. The seasonality of the long-term trends over the entire extratropics is found to be explained by the persistence of the interannual anomalies, as in the observations, demonstrating that summertime ozone trends reflect winter/spring trends rather than any change in summertime ozone chemistry. However this mechanism fails in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes because of the relatively large impact, compared to observations, of the CMAM polar anomalies. As in the southern hemisphere, the influence of polar ozone loss in CMAM increases the midlatitude summertime loss, leading to a relatively weak seasonal dependence of ozone loss in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the observations

Quantifying the timescale and strength of Southern Hemisphere intra-seasonal stratosphere-troposphere coupling

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal circulation manifests a downward influence of the stratosphere on the troposphere from late spring to early summer. However, the strength and timescale of the connection, given the stratospheric state, has not been explicitly quantified. Here, SH zonal wind reanalysis time-series are analysed with a methodology designed to detect the minimal set of statistical predictors of multiple interacting variables via conditional independence tests. Our results confirm from data that the variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is a predictor of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet between September and January. The vortex variability explains about 40% of monthly mean jet variability at a lead time of one month, and can entirely account for the observed jet persistence. Our statistical model can quantitatively connect the multi-decadal trends observed in the vortex and jet during the satellite era. This shows how short-term variability can help understand statistical links in long-term changes

Seasonal persistence of circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, and its implications for the troposphere

Previous studies have highlighted an important organising influence of the seasonal Southern Hemisphere stratospheric vortex breakdown on the large-scale stratospheric and tropospheric circulation. The present study extends this work by considering the statistical predictability of the stratospheric vortex breakdown event, using re-analysis data. Perturbations to the winter stratospheric vortex are shown to persist into austral spring, and to lead to a shift in the statistics of the breakdown event during austral summer. This is interpreted as evidence for the potential for seasonal predictability of the vortex breakdown event in the stratosphere. Coupled variability between the stratosphere and troposphere is then considered. The semi-annual oscillation of the tropospheric mid-latitude jet is discussed and evidence for a connection between this behaviour and variations in the stratosphere is presented. Based on this connection, an argument is made for the concomitant potential for seasonal predictability in the troposphere, assuming knowledge of the stratospheric initial state. Combining these various results, a non-stationary, regime-based perspective of large-scale extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere circulation variability between late winter and summer is proposed. The implications of this perspective for some previous studies involving Annular Modes of the circulation are discussed. In particular, the long Annular Mode timescales during austral spring and summer should not be interpreted as an increased persistence of perturbations to some slowly varying seasonal cycle, but instead reflect a phase shift of the seasonal cycle induced by stratospheric variability

On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases

The vertical profile of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes has traditionally represented an important diagnostic for the attribution of the cooling effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO2 increases. However, CO2-induced cooling alters ozone abundance by perturbing ozone chemistry, thereby coupling the stratospheric ozone and temperature responses to changes in CO2 and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Here we untangle the ozone-temperature coupling and show that the attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes to CO2 and ODS changes (which are the true anthropogenic forcing agents) can be quite different from the traditional attribution to CO2 and ozone changes. The significance of these effects is quantified empirically using simulations from a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model. The results confirm the essential validity of the traditional approach in attributing changes during the past period of rapid ODS increases, although we find that about 10% of the upper stratospheric ozone decrease from ODS increases over the period 1975–1995 was offset by the increase in CO2, and the CO2-induced cooling in the upper stratosphere has been somewhat overestimated. When considering ozone recovery, however, the ozone-temperature coupling is a first-order effect; fully 2/5 of the upper stratospheric ozone increase projected to occur from 2010–2040 is attributable to CO2 increases. Thus, it has now become necessary to base attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes on CO2 and ODS changes rather than on CO2 and ozone changes

Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing

As evidence of climate change strengthens, knowledge of its regional implications becomes an urgent need for decision making. Current understanding of regional precipitation changes is substantially limited by our understanding of the atmospheric circulation response to climate change, which to a high degree remains uncertain. This uncertainty is reflected in the wide spread in atmospheric circulation changes projected in multimodel ensembles, which cannot be directly interpreted in a probabilistic sense. The uncertainty can instead be represented by studying a discrete set of physically plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation changes. By mining CMIP5 model output, here we take this broader perspective and develop storylines for Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude circulation changes, conditioned on the degree of global-mean warming, based on the climate responses of two remote drivers: the enhanced warming of the tropical upper troposphere and the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. For the three continental domains in the SH, we analyse the precipitation changes under each storyline. To allow comparison with previous studies, we also link both circulation and precipitation changes with those of the Southern Annular Mode. Our results show that the response to tropical warming leads to a strengthening of the midlatitude westerly winds, whilst the response to a delayed breakdown (for DJF) or strengthening (for JJA) of the stratospheric vortex leads to a poleward shift of the westerly winds and the storm tracks. However, the circulation response is not zonally symmetric and the regional precipitation storylines for South America, South Africa, South Australia and New Zealand exhibit quite specific dependencies on the two remote drivers, which are not well represented by changes in the Southern Annular Mode

Localness in climate change

Climate change is a global problem, yet it is experienced at the local scale, in ways that are both place-specific and specific to the accidents of weather history. This article takes the dichotomy between the global and the local as a starting point to develop a critique of the normative approach within climate science, which is global in various ways and thereby fails to bring meaning to the local. The article discusses the ethical choices implicit in the current paradigm of climate prediction, how irreducible uncertainty at the local scale can be managed by suitable reframing of the scientific questions, and some particular epistemic considerations that apply to climate change in the global South. The article argues for an elevation of the narrative and for a demotion of the probabilistic from its place of privilege in the construction and communication of our understanding of global warming and its local consequences