Labor Migration and the Case for Flat Tax

In this paper we employ a tax-competition model to demonstrate that in the presence of migration the re-distributive advantage of a non-linear income tax system over a linear (flat) one is significantly mitigated relative to the autarky (no-migration) equilibrium. When migration threats are sufficiently strong, a coordinated shift from a non-linear (prima-facie superior) system to a flat (inferior) regime is not too welfare-costly, even when the extent of re-distribution is significant. Therefore, such a shift may be warranted on administrative grounds. We also show, as expected, that migration reduces the extent of redistribution.flat tax, re-distribution, migration, tax-competition

On Recoding Ordered Treatments as Binary Indicators

Researchers using instrumental variables to investigate the effects of ordered treatments (e.g., years of education, months of healthcare coverage) often recode treatment into a binary indicator for any exposure (e.g., any college, any healthcare coverage). The resulting estimand is difficult to interpret unless the instruments only shift compliers from no treatment to some positive quantity and not from some treatment to more -- i.e., there are extensive margin compliers only (EMCO). When EMCO holds, recoded endogenous variables capture a weighted average of treatment effects across complier groups that can be partially unbundled into each group's treated and untreated means. Invoking EMCO along with the standard Local Average Treatment Effect assumptions is equivalent to assuming choices are determined by a simple two-factor selection model in which agents first decide whether to participate in treatment at all and then decide how much. The instruments must only impact relative utility in the first step. Although EMCO constrains unobserved counterfactual choices, it places testable restrictions on the joint distribution of outcomes, treatments, and instruments

Essays in Labor Economics and the Criminal Justice System

This dissertation investigates key aspects of the U.S. criminal justice system.The first chapter studies different methods of providing a legal counsel to low-income criminal defendants. Most criminal defendants in the U.S. cannot afford to hire an attorney. To provide constitutionally mandated legal services, states commonly use either private court-appointed attorneys or a public defender organization. This paper investigates the relative efficacy of these two modes of indigent defense by comparing outcomes of co-defendants assigned to different types of attorneys within the same case. Using data from San Francisco, I show that in multiple defendant cases public defender assignment is plausibly as good as random. I find that defendants who have been assigned a public defenders obtain more favorable sentencing outcomes.The second chapter investigate the causal effect of incarceration on reoffending using discontinuities in state sentencing guidelines and two decades of administrative records from North Carolina. A regression discontinuity analysis shows that one year of incarceration reduces the likelihood of committing new assault, property, and drug offenses within three years of conviction by 38%, 24%, and 20%, respectively. Incarceration sentences temporarily incapacitate offenders by removing them from society but can also influence post-release criminal behavior.The third chapter parses the non-linear and heterogeneous effects of incarceration on post-release criminal behavior, I develop an econometric model of sentencing length and recidivism. This model model allows for Roy-style selection into sentencing on the basis of latent criminality. I propose a two-step control function estimator of the model parameters and show that our estimates accurately reproduce the reduced form effects of the sentencing discontinuities that I study. The parameter estimates indicate that incarceration has modest crime-reducing behavioral effects that are diminishing in incarceration length. A cost-benefit analysis suggests, however, that the benefit of reducing crime by lengthening sentences (through both incapacitation and behavioral channels) is outweighed by the large fiscal costs of incarceration

Are Public Defenders Better at Indigent Defense than Court-Appointed Attorneys?

US courts provide constitutionally mandated legal services to low-income criminal defendants via private court-appointed attorneys and public defenders. This study finds that defendants in multiple-defendant cases experience better case outcomes when they are represented by a public defender compared with those appointed a private attorney. In San Francisco, they are 3.8 percentage points (6%) less likely to be convicted and 1.8 percentage points (22%) less likely to receive a prison sentence. These differences are more pronounced in more serious cases and for individuals with longer criminal histories. This study compared the outcomes of codefendants who are assigned separate counsel to avoid conflicts of interest. It suggests that public defenders may provide better representation than court-appointed attorneys, especially when the stakes are higher

A note on fairness and personalised pricing

Since the seminal papers of Fehr and Schmidt (1999) and Bolton and Ockenfels (2000), fairness has become an important discussion point in economics. Is it unfair that different people pay different prices for the same good or service? We provide what we believe to be a novel approach: We let normal everyday consumers play the role of sellers who have access to consumers’ data (and willingness to pay). A strong finding of behaviour in this setup is that subjects charge a fixed percentage (approximately 64%) of the willingness to pay from each of their subjects, leading to a fair, whilst uneven, distribution of prices. Interesting, this 64% price level does not change when we vary the number of sellers competing in the market

Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program

This paper studies the effect of a restorative justice intervention targeted at youth ages 13 to 17 facing felony charges of medium severity (e.g., burglary, assault). Eligible youths were randomly assigned to participate in the Make-it-Right (MIR) restorative justice program or a control group where they faced standard criminal prosecution. We estimate the effects of MIR on the likelihood that a youth will be rearrested in the four years following randomization. Assignment to MIR reduces the probability of a rearrest within six months by 19 percentage points, a 44 percent reduction relative to the control group. Moreover, the reduction in recidivism persists even four years after randomization. Thus, our estimates show that restorative justice conferencing can reduce recidivism among youth charged with relatively serious offenses and can be an effective alternative to traditional criminal justice practices.This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR327

Labor Migration and the Case for Flat Tax

In this paper we employ a tax-competition model to demonstrate that in the presence of migration the re-distributive advantage of a non-linear income tax system over a linear (flat) one is significantly mitigated relative to the autarky (no-migration) equilibrium. When migration threats are sufficiently strong, a coordinated shift from a non-linear (prima-facie superior) system to a flat (inferior) regime is not too welfarecostly, even when the extent of re-distribution is significant. Therefore, such a shift may be warranted on administrative grounds. We also show, as expected, that migration reduces the extent of redistribution

Labor Migration and the Case for Flat Tax

In this paper we employ a tax-competition model to demonstrate that in the presence of migration the re-distributive advantage of a non-linear income tax system over a linear (flat) one is significantly mitigated relative to the autarky (no-migration) equilibrium. A coordinated shift to a flat system with its entailed administrative advantages may therefore be warranted