Financial Connectedness of Eastern European Stock Markets

Financial Connectedness of Eastern European Stock Markets Abstract The connectedness of financial assets and markets represents an essential concept that has long-lasting consequences for the assessment of risk. Thus, it is important to correctly measure dependencies and describe their dynamics to predict future responses of markets to shocks. In this thesis, I focus on the connectedness of Eastern European stock markets and assess the relationships between returns and volatilities in these markets, account- ing for the presence of cryptocurrency markets and other major developed markets. I describe conditional correlations of returns from the DCC model of Engle (2002, JBES). Using the spillover framework proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2009, EJ) I measure the connectedness from a static and dynamic perspective. The results indicate that Eastern European markets are tightly connected. The measures of connectedness were fluctuat- ing over time and have risen significantly as a consequence of the recent pandemic. The magnitude of the increase for different groups of markets ranges from 35% to 100%. Key words: Financial connectedness, Stock market, Spillovers

Finanční propojenost akciových trhů východní Evropy

Financial Connectedness of Eastern European Stock Markets Abstract The connectedness of financial assets and markets represents an essential concept that has long-lasting consequences for the assessment of risk. Thus, it is important to correctly measure dependencies and describe their dynamics to predict future responses of markets to shocks. In this thesis, I focus on the connectedness of Eastern European stock markets and assess the relationships between returns and volatilities in these markets, account- ing for the presence of cryptocurrency markets and other major developed markets. I describe conditional correlations of returns from the DCC model of Engle (2002, JBES). Using the spillover framework proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2009, EJ) I measure the connectedness from a static and dynamic perspective. The results indicate that Eastern European markets are tightly connected. The measures of connectedness were fluctuat- ing over time and have risen significantly as a consequence of the recent pandemic. The magnitude of the increase for different groups of markets ranges from 35% to 100%. Key words: Financial connectedness, Stock market, Spillovers.Finanční Propojení Akciových Trhů Východní Evropy Abstrakt Propojení finančních aktiv a trhů představuje významný koncept při hodnocení rizika. Je důležité správně měřit závislosti a popsat dynamiku propojení trhů k předpovídání reakcí trhů na šoky. V této práci se zaměřuji na propojení akciových trhů východní Evropy a vyhodnocuji vztahy mezi výnosy a volatilitou na těchto trzích. Při své analýze beru v potaz existenci trhů s kryptoměnami i jiných významných trhů. Popisuji pod- míněné korelace výnosů DCC modelem Engleho (2002, JBES). S použitím frameworku pro zkoumání přelévání šoků mezi trhy, který byl navržen Dieboldem a Yilmazem (2009, EJ), měřím statickou i dynamickou propojenost. Výsledky naznačují, že trhy výhodní Evropy jsou úzce propojeny. Míra propojení kolísá v čase a výražně se zvýšila v nedávné době jako důsledek pandemie COVIDu. Nárust propojení se v různých kategoriích trhů pohybuje od 35 % do 100 %. Klíčová slova: Finanční propojenost, akciový trh, přelévání šoků.CERGEFaculty of Social SciencesFakulta sociálních vě

Excess mortality in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: regional analysis

One of the most important tasks for assessing the damage from a pandemic is the assessment of human losses resulting from the disease. As a rule, it is rather difficult to estimate the direct number of deaths from COVID-19, due to both the methodological difficulties in assessing the causes of death and the choice of a reference point for assessing excess mortality. The existing approaches, such as comparing with the previous year or the average mortality figure over the past few years are associated with numerous problems. To get a more objective assessment of the number of deaths in the absence of a pandemic, it is necessary to use the projected number of deaths considering the age structure of the population.   To assess excess mortality, this paper uses the method of constructing a demographic forecast. The baseline scenario against which excess mortality is calculated is estimated using a multi-regional demographic projection. In this paper we are using statistical data from Rosstat and the results of demographic modeling to analyze the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We compare the mortality data for 2020 with the projected number of deaths for 2020.   The paper provides estimates of excess mortality in the regional context. Estimates are given both for the Russian Federation as a whole and for individual Russian regions. Estimates of excess mortality are also provided for separately for men and women and older age groups.&nbsp

Sources and accumulation of

Annual needles of larch and cedar were sampled in the tundra zone of the Arctic part of Western Siberia in order to determine 7Be, 210Pb and 137Cs specific activities. Higher concentrations of 137Cs in the needles of cedar relative to the needles of larch can be associated with a clear difference in the properties of accumulation and translocation of caesium among these species. Higher concentrations of 7Be and 210Pb in the needles of larch relative to cedar needles and close isotopic ratios (7Be/210Pb) are probably due to more efficient aerosol deposition on vegetative canopies of larch