Pascal's Wager, infective endocarditis and the "no-lose" philosophy in medicine

Doctors and dentists have traditionally used antibiotic prophylaxis in certain patient groups in order to prevent infective endocarditis (IE). New guidelines, however, suggest that the risk to patients from using antibiotics is higher than the risk from IE. This paper analyses the relative risks of prescribing and not prescribing antibiotic prophylaxis against the background of Pascal's Wager, the infamous assertion that it is better to believe in God regardless of evidence, because of the prospective benefits should He exist. Many doctors seem to believe the parallel proposition that it is better to prescribe antibiotics, regardless of evidence, because of the prospective benefit conferred upon the patient. This has been called the "no lose philosophy" in medicine: better safe than sorry, even if the evidence inconveniently suggests that following this mantra is potentially more likely to result in sorry than safe. It transpires that, just as Pascal's Wager fails to convince because of a lack of evidence to support it and the costs incurred by trying to believe, so the "belts and braces" approach of prescribing antibiotic prophylaxis is unjustifiable given the actual evidence of potential risk and benefit to the patient. Ultimately, there is no no-lose if your clinical decisions, like Pascal's Wager, are based on faith rather than evidence

Immune Responses in Human Necatoriasis: Association between Interleukin-5 Responses and Resistance to Reinfection

Cytokine and proliferative responses to Necator americanus infection were measured in a treatment-reinfection study of infected subjects from an area of Papua New Guinea where N. americanus is highly endemic. Before treatment, most subjects produced detectable interleukin (IL)4 (97%), IL-5 (86%), and interferon (IFN)-γ(64%) in response to adult N. americanus antigen. Pretreatment IFN-γ responses were negatively associated with hookworm burden, decreasing by 18 pg/mL for each increase of 1000 eggs/gram (epg) (n = 75; P < .01). Mean IFN-γ responses increased significantly after anthelmintic treatment, from 166 to 322 pg/mL (n = 42; P < .01). The intensity of reinfection was significantly negatively correlated with pretreatment IL-5 responses, decreasing by 551 epg for each 100 pg/mL increase in production of IL-5 (n = 51; P < .01). These data indicate that there is a mixed cytokine response in necatoriasis, with worm burdenassociated suppression of IFN-γ responses to adult N. americanus antigen. Resistance to reinfection is associated with the parasite-specific IL-5 response

Tectonic and climatic considerations for deep geological disposal of radioactive waste: a UK perspective

Identifying and evaluating the factors that might impact on the long-term integrity of a deep Geological Disposal Facility (GDF) and its surrounding geological and surface environment is central to developing a safety case for underground disposal of radioactive waste. The geological environment should be relatively stable and its behaviour adequately predictable so that scientifically sound evaluations of the long-term radiological safety of a GDF can be made. In considering this, it is necessary to take into account natural processes that could affect a GDF or modify its geological environment up to 1 million years into the future. Key processes considered in this paper include those which result from plate tectonics, such as seismicity and volcanism, as well as climate-related processes, such as erosion, uplift and the effects of glaciation. Understanding the inherent variability of process rates, critical thresholds and likely potential influence of unpredictable perturbations represent significant challenges to predicting the natural environment. From a plate-tectonic perspective, a one million year time frame represents a very short segment of geological time and is largely below the current resolution of observation of past processes. Similarly, predicting climate system evolution on such time-scales, particularly beyond 200 ka AP is highly uncertain, relying on estimating the extremes within which climate and related processes may vary with reasonable confidence. The paper highlights some of the challenges facing a deep geological disposal program in the UK to review understanding of the natural changes that may affect siting and design of a GDF

Cross-continental emergence of Nannizziopsis barbatae disease may threaten wild Australian lizards

Members of the genus Nannizziopsis are emerging fungal pathogens of reptiles that have been documented as the cause of fatal mycoses in a wide range of reptiles in captivity. Cases of severe, proliferative dermatitis, debility and death have been detected in multiple free-living lizard species from locations across Australia, including a substantial outbreak among Eastern water dragons (Intellagama lesueurii) in Brisbane, Queensland. We investigated this disease in a subset of severely affected lizards and identified a clinically consistent syndrome characterized by hyperkeratosis, epidermal hyperplasia, dermal inflammation, necrosis, ulceration, and emaciation. Using a novel fungal isolation method, histopathology, and molecular techniques, we identified the etiologic agent as Nannizziopsis barbatae, a species reported only once previously from captive lizards in Australia. Here we report severe dermatomycosis caused by N. barbatae in five species of Australian lizard, representing the first cases of Nannizziopsis infection among free-living reptiles, globally. Further, we evaluate key pathogen and host characteristics that indicate N. barbatae-associated dermatomycosis may pose a concerning threat to Australian lizards

Thyroid control over biomembranes: VI. Lipids in liver mitochondria and microsomes of hypothyroid rats

The lipids of liver mitochondria prepared from normal rats and from rats made hypothyroid by thyroidectomy and injection with131INa contained similar amounts, per mg protein, of total lipids, phospholipids, neutral lipids and lipid phosphorus. Hypothyroidism caused a doubling of the relative amounts of mitochondrial cardiolipins (CL; to 20.5% of the phospholipid P) and an accompanying trend (although statistically not significant) toward decreased amounts of both phosphatidylcholines (PC) and phosphatidylserines (PS), with phosphatidylethanolamines (PE) remaining unchanged. The pattern of elevated 18∶2 fatty acyl content and depleted 20∶4 acyl groups of the mitochondrial phospholipids of hypothyroid preparations was reflected to varying degrees in the resolved phospholipids, with PC showing greater degrees of abnormality than PE, and CL showing none. Hypothyroidism produced the same abnormal pattern of fatty acyl distributions in liver microsomal total lipids as was found in the mitochondria. Hypothyroid rats, when killed 6 hr after injection of [1‐14C] labeled linoleate, showed the following abnormalities: the liver incorporated less label into lipids, and converted 18∶2 not exclusively to 20∶4 (as normals do) but instead incorporated the label mainly into saturated fatty acids. These data, together with the known decrease in β‐oxidation, suggest that hypothyroidism involves possible defective step(s) in the conversion of 18∶2 to 20∶4.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142296/1/lipd0328.pd

NMR and NQR Fluctuation Effects in Layered Superconductors

We study the effect of thermal fluctuations of the s-wave order parameter of a quasi two dimensional superconductor on the nuclear spin relaxation rate near the transition temperature Tc. We consider both the effects of the amplitude fluctuations and the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) phase fluctuations in weakly coupled layered superconductors. In the treatment of the amplitude fluctuations we employ the Gaussian approximation and evaluate the longitudinal relaxation rate 1/T1 for a clean s-wave superconductor, with and without pair breaking effects, using the static pair fluctuation propagator D. The increase in 1/T1 due to pair breaking in D is overcompensated by the decrease arising from the single particle Green's functions. The result is a strong effect on 1/T1 for even a small amount of pair breaking. The phase fluctuations are described in terms of dynamical BKT excitations in the form of pancake vortex-antivortex (VA) pairs. We calculate the effect of the magnetic field fluctuations caused by the translational motion of VA excitations on 1/T1 and on the transverse relaxation rate 1/T2 on both sides of the BKT transitation temperature T(BKT)<Tc. The results for the NQR relaxation rates depend strongly on the diffusion constant that governs the motion of free and bound vortices as well as the annihilation of VA pairs. We discuss the relaxation rates for real multilayer systems where the diffusion constant can be small and thus increase the lifetime of a VA pair, leading to an enhancement of the rates. We also discuss in some detail the experimental feasibility of observing the effects of amplitude fluctuations in layered s-wave superconductors such as the dichalcogenides and the effects of phase fluctuations in s- or d-wave superconductors such as the layered cuprates.Comment: 38 pages, 12 figure

Observation of exclusive DVCS in polarized electron beam asymmetry measurements

We report the first results of the beam spin asymmetry measured in the reaction e + p -> e + p + gamma at a beam energy of 4.25 GeV. A large asymmetry with a sin(phi) modulation is observed, as predicted for the interference term of Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering and the Bethe-Heitler process. The amplitude of this modulation is alpha = 0.202 +/- 0.028. In leading-order and leading-twist pQCD, the alpha is directly proportional to the imaginary part of the DVCS amplitude.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

Complete measurement of three-body photodisintegration of 3He for photon energies between 0.35 and 1.55 GeV

The three-body photodisintegration of 3He has been measured with the CLAS detector at Jefferson Lab, using tagged photons of energies between 0.35 GeV and 1.55 GeV. The large acceptance of the spectrometer allowed us for the first time to cover a wide momentum and angular range for the two outgoing protons. Three kinematic regions dominated by either two- or three-body contributions have been distinguished and analyzed. The measured cross sections have been compared with results of a theoretical model, which, in certain kinematic ranges, have been found to be in reasonable agreement with the data.Comment: 22 pages, 25 eps figures, 2 tables, submitted to PRC. Modifications: removed 2 figures, improvements on others, a few minor modifications to the tex

A Kinematically Complete Measurement of the Proton Structure Function F2 in the Resonance Region and Evaluation of Its Moments

We measured the inclusive electron-proton cross section in the nucleon resonance region (W < 2.5 GeV) at momentum transfers Q**2 below 4.5 (GeV/c)**2 with the CLAS detector. The large acceptance of CLAS allowed for the first time the measurement of the cross section in a large, contiguous two-dimensional range of Q**2 and x, making it possible to perform an integration of the data at fixed Q**2 over the whole significant x-interval. From these data we extracted the structure function F2 and, by including other world data, we studied the Q**2 evolution of its moments, Mn(Q**2), in order to estimate higher twist contributions. The small statistical and systematic uncertainties of the CLAS data allow a precise extraction of the higher twists and demand significant improvements in theoretical predictions for a meaningful comparison with new experimental results.Comment: revtex4 18 pp., 12 figure