Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalizations about their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature, ice cover, and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected to warm at 0.10–0.11&thinsp;∘C&thinsp;decade−1, which is 75&thinsp;%–90&thinsp;% of the projected air temperature trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring, but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes. Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5–2.2 and 1.4–1.8 days&thinsp;decade−1 respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive. The projected summer mixed-layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive to changes in water transparency. By mid-century, the frequency of ice and stratification-free winters was projected to increase by about 20&thinsp;%, making ice cover rare and shifting the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensitivity analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention.</p

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

Recently, major advances in the climate–zooplankton interface have been made some of which appeared to receive much attention in a broader audience of ecologists as well. In contrast to the marine realm, however, we still lack a more holistic summary of recent knowledge in freshwater. We discuss climate change-related variation in physical and biological attributes of lakes and running waters, high-order ecological functions, and subsequent alteration in zooplankton abundance, phenology, distribution, body size, community structure, life history parameters, and behavior by focusing on community level responses. The adequacy of large-scale climatic indices in ecology has received considerable support and provided a framework for the interpretation of community and species level responses in freshwater zooplankton. Modeling perspectives deserve particular consideration, since this promising stream of ecology is of particular applicability in climate change research owing to the inherently predictive nature of this field. In the future, ecologists should expand their research on species beyond daphnids, should address questions as to how different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers interact, should move beyond correlative approaches toward more mechanistic explanations, and last but not least, should facilitate transfer of biological data both across space and time

Global lake responses to climate change

Climate change is one of the most severe threats to global lake ecosystems. Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation and water level, respond dramatically to this threat, as observed in recent decades. In this Review, we discuss physical lake variables and their responses to climate change. Decreases in winter ice cover and increases in lake surface temperature modify lake mixing regimes and accelerate lake evaporation. Where not balanced by increased mean precipitation or inflow, higher evaporation rates will favour a decrease in lake level and surface water extent. Together with increases in extreme-precipitation events, these lake responses will impact lake ecosystems, changing water quantity and quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and transportation. Future research opportunities, including enhanced observation of lake variables from space (particularly for small water bodies), improved in situ lake monitoring and the development of advanced modelling techniques to predict lake processes, will improve our global understanding of lake responses to a changing climate

Risk of Bowel Obstruction in Patients Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for High-risk Colon Cancer

Objective: This study aimed to identify risk criteria available before the point of treatment initiation that can be used to stratify the risk of obstruction in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for high-risk colon cancer. Background: Global implementation of NAC for colon cancer, informed by the FOxTROT trial, may increase the risk of bowel obstruction. Methods: A case-control study, nested within an international randomized controlled trial (FOxTROT; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00647530). Patients with high-risk operable colon cancer (radiologically staged T3-4 N0-2 M0) that were randomized to NAC and developed large bowel obstruction were identified. First, clinical outcomes were compared between patients receiving NAC in FOxTROT who did and did not develop obstruction. Second, obstructed patients (cases) were age-matched and sex-matched with patients who did not develop obstruction (controls) in a 1:3 ratio using random sampling. Bayesian conditional mixed-effects logistic regression modeling was used to explore clinical, radiologic, and pathologic features associated with obstruction. The absolute risk of obstruction based on the presence or absence of risk criteria was estimated for all patients receiving NAC. Results: Of 1053 patients randomized in FOxTROT, 699 received NAC, of whom 30 (4.3%) developed obstruction. Patients underwent care in European hospitals including 88 UK, 7 Danish, and 3 Swedish centers. There was more open surgery (65.4% vs 38.0%, P=0.01) and a higher pR1 rate in obstructed patients (12.0% vs 3.8%, P=0.004), but otherwise comparable postoperative outcomes. In the case-control–matched Bayesian model, 2 independent risk criteria were identified: (1) obstructing disease on endoscopy and/or being unable to pass through the tumor [adjusted odds ratio: 9.09, 95% credible interval: 2.34–39.66] and stricturing disease on radiology or endoscopy (odds ratio: 7.18, 95% CI: 1.84–32.34). Three risk groups were defined according to the presence or absence of these criteria: 63.4% (443/698) of patients were at very low risk (10%). Conclusions: Safe selection for NAC for colon cancer can be informed by using 2 features that are available before treatment initiation and identifying a small number of patients with a high risk of preoperative obstruction