Toward a Theory of Marginally Efficient Markets

Empirical evidence suggests that even the most competitive markets are not strictly efficient. Price histories can be used to predict near future returns with a probability better than random chance. Many markets can be considered as {\it favorable games}, in the sense that there is a small probabilistic edge that smart speculators can exploit. We propose to identify this probability using conditional entropy concept. A perfect random walk has this entropy maximized, and departure from the maximal value represents a price history's predictability. We propose that market participants should be divided into two categories: producers and speculators. The former provides the negative entropy into the price, upon which the latter feed. We show that the residual negative entropy can never be arbitraged away: infinite arbitrage capital is needed to make the price a perfect random walk.Comment: 9 pages, 3 ps figure

Communal residential laundry washing and drying : can it provide demand-side electrical load flexibility?

Changes in lifestyle have led to increased use and ownership rates of domestic appliances resulting in increasing electrical consumption in the residential sector. An important element of this consumption is due to domestic washing and drying of laundry. Given current and predicted ownership rates, the market for drying facilities is still not fully saturated and electrical demand for these functions will therefore increase. This paper looks at energy loads for laundering in high density housing such as blocks of flats and explores the benefits of communal facilities. Benefits of such facilities include reduced high humidity levels and the mitigation of decreased indoor air quality associated with indoor drying of laundry in individual dwellings. However from the perspective of integrating microgeneration into buildings, communal facilities may facilitate increased flexibility in the electrical demand profile, hence better complementing low carbon and localised energy supplies. In order to investigate the possible effects on the electric demand load profile, this paper presents the scenario of a hypothetical housing block and analyses the effect of moving from washing and drying in individual households to communal facilities. The study includes the effects of appliance energy-efficiency improvements and increased ownership rates. Results obtained show that communal laundering is successful in terms of time-shifting and hence lowering of peak electrical demand but is ineffective in reducing consumption

Concert recording 2017-11-19b

[Track 1]. Concerto in E-flat major for horn C. 49. Allegro molto / Antonio Rosetti -- [Track 2]. Sonata for horn in F and piano. Mässig Bewegt [Track 3]. Ruhig Bewegt [Track 4]. Lebhaft / Paul Hindemith -- [Track 5]. Thema und Variationen / Franz Strauss -- [Track 6]. Reverie op. 24 / Alexander Glazunov -- [Track 7]. Circus suite / Michael Horvit

General Education Curriculum and Students with Disabilities in Inclusive, Personalized Learning Classrooms

Findings from previous studies indicate that general educators are rarely proficient in providing students with disabilities (SWD) opportunities to access the general education curriculum. This may be due to a lack of personalized learning instructional strategies in classrooms. The purpose of this study was to investigate the perspectives of general educators in inclusive, personalized learning environments on planning and using personalized learning instructional strategies to provide SWD access to the general education curriculum. Concepts in Bloom’s mastery learning theory—flexible pacing, differentiation and feedback—framed the study. A qualitative descriptive case study was used to investigate the research questions. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with eight general educators and a review of the lesson plans provided by participants. Inclusion criteria required that participants used personalized learning strategies during the 2018 through 2021 school years with SWD in an elementary school. Descriptive coding and a priori coding were used to analyze data. A review of lesson plans showed the common instructional strategies planned across the classrooms. Participants noted the importance of differentiation, providing SWD time to reach mastery, and using data to drive instruction. Participants also identified barriers with administrative expectations. The results of this study can contribute to positive social change for SWD by identifying the instructional strategies used to give SWD access to the general education curriculum. As SWD have access to the same curriculum as their peers, opportunities for SWD may open as they leave the K–12 system and enter the community

A Taxonomy of Fabric Integrated Thermal Energy Storage: A review of storage types and building locations

Thermal energy storage incorporated into the fabric of buildings provides the opportunity to significantly reduce the energy load of those buildings, improve the use of energy from renewable sources and take maximum advantage of off-peak electricity tariffs. If this kind of thermal storage is integrated into the structure of the building itself, the internal space of the building is not compromised. In this paper, the authors present a taxonomy of currently available fabric-integrated thermal energy storage solutions based on a review of existing literature. The aim of this study is to map the range of extant design solutions for fabric-integrated thermal storage in buildings and detect any omissions in this range of designs. The taxonomy presented in this paper takes into consideration the interaction between the storage of thermal energy and the thermal zones of buildings, the methods and medium used to store thermal energy, and the storage temperature. Also considered here are the different architectural integration options, which the authors present through a catalogue of possible thermal energy storage locations. This paper argues that an active storage system provides a link for active participation in the energy network. Active storage allows the charge and discharge of the thermal energy stored within such buildings when the energy is available and/or economically valuable. This kind of active participation is not possible with passive storage techniques

A Taxonomy of Fabric Integrated Thermal Energy Storage: A review of storage types and building locations

Thermal energy storage incorporated into the fabric of buildings could provide the opportunity to significantly improve the use of energy from renewable sources and take maximum advantage of off-peak electricity tariffs. If this kind of thermal storage is integrated into the structure of the building itself, the internal space of the building is not compromised and may be more cost-effective. In this paper, the authors present a taxonomy of currently available fabric-integrated thermal energy storage solutions based on a review of existing literature. The aim of this study is to map the range of extant design solutions for fabric-integrated thermal storage in buildings and detect any omissions. The taxonomy presented in this paper takes into consideration the interaction between the storage of thermal energy and the thermal zones of buildings, the methods and medium used to store thermal energy, and the storage temperature. Also considered here are the different architectural integration options, which the authors present through a catalogue of possible thermal energy storage locations. This paper also argues that an active storage system provides a means for energy systems in buildings to actively participate in future energy networks, which may require active load management to accommodate a high proportion of renewable technologies. Active storage allows the charge and discharge of the thermal energy stored within buildings when the energy is available and/or economically valuable. This kind of active participation is not possible with passive storage techniques

Early years and key stage 1 teachers’ attitudes towards outdoor and online play

Children’s opportunities for outdoor play have declined (Nash, D. 2018. The Construction of the Decline of Children’s Outdoor Play as a Social Problem in the UK. Canterbury: Canterbury Christ Church University) whilst opportunities for online play are increasing (Berrett, B., J. Murphy, and J. Sullivan. 2012. “Administrator Insights and Reflections: Technology Integration in Schools.” The Qualitative Report 17 (1): 200–221). This study investigated early years/key stage 1 teachers’ attitudes towards outdoor and online play utilising (Rosenberg, M. J., and C. I. Hovland. 1960. “Cognitive, Affective, and Behavioural Components of Attitudes.” In Attitude Organization and Change, edited by M. Rosenberg, C. Hovland, W. McGuire, R. Abelson, and J. Brehm, 1–14. Connecticut: Yale University Press) tripartite model of attitudes. An online survey was employed with 30 early years/key stage 1 teachers, gaining an understanding of teachers’ attitudes towards outdoor and online play. In summary, results show there is significant variation in teachers’ attitudes towards outdoor and online play, whilst children’s opportunities for outdoor and online play within UK early education also remain infrequent and varied

BKB_K using HYP-smeared staggered fermions in Nf=2+1N_f=2+1 unquenched QCD

We present results for kaon mixing parameter $B_K$ calculated using HYP-smeared improved staggered fermions on the MILC asqtad lattices. We use three lattice spacings ($a\approx 0.12$, $0.09$ and $0.06\;$fm), ten different valence quark masses ($m\approx m_s/10-m_s$), and several light sea-quark masses in order to control the continuum and chiral extrapolations. We derive the next-to-leading order staggered chiral perturbation theory (SChPT) results necessary to fit our data, and use these results to do extrapolations based both on SU(2) and SU(3) SChPT. The SU(2) fitting is particularly straightforward because parameters related to taste-breaking and matching errors appear only at next-to-next-to-leading order. We match to the continuum renormalization scheme (NDR) using one-loop perturbation theory. Our final result is from the SU(2) analysis, with the SU(3) result providing a (less accurate) cross check. We find $B_K(\text{NDR}, \mu = 2 \text{GeV}) = 0.529 \pm 0.009 \pm 0.032$ and $\hat{B}_K =B_K(\text{RGI})= 0.724 \pm 0.012 \pm 0.043$, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The error is dominated by the truncation error in the matching factor. Our results are consistent with those obtained using valence domain-wall fermions on lattices generated with asqtad or domain-wall sea quarks.Comment: 37 pages, 31 figures, most updated versio

Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity

In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loosely or too tightly constraining investors' risk preferences, from their respective perspectives. The conflict can be understood on the basis that the multiplicative models used in both approaches are non-ergodic which leads to ensemble-average returns differing from time-average returns in single realizations. The classic treatments, from the very beginning of probability theory, use ensemble-averages, whereas the Kelly-result is obtained by considering time-averages. Maximizing the time-average growth rates for an investment defines an optimal leverage, whereas growth rates derived from ensemble-average returns depend linearly on leverage. The latter measure can thus incentivize investors to maximize leverage, which is detrimental to time-average growth and overall market stability. The Sharpe ratio is insensitive to leverage. Its relation to optimal leverage is discussed. A better understanding of the significance of time-irreversibility and non-ergodicity and the resulting bounds on leverage may help policy makers in reshaping financial risk controls.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Updated figures and extended discussion of ergodicit

Concert recording 2017-04-12b

[Track 1]. Angel Falls / Lewis Songer -- [Track 2]. Grand Canyon Octet. Andante appassionato [Track 3]. Lento-allegro molto / Eric Ewazen -- [Track 4]. Quipperies / Lowell Shaw -- [Track 5]. Birdland / Josef Zawinul arranged by Kummerlander