Bringing Forecasting Into the Future: Using Google to Predict Visitation in U.S. National Parks

In recent years, visitation to U.S. National Parks has been increasing, with the majority of this increase occurring in a subset of parks. As a result, managers in these parks must respond quickly to increasing visitor-related challenges. Improved visitation forecasting would allow managers to more proactively plan for such increases. In this study, we leverage internet search data that is freely available through Google Trends to create a forecasting model. We compare this Google Trends model to a traditional autoregressive forecasting model. Overall, our Google Trends model accurately predicted 97% of the total visitation variation to all parks one year in advance from 2013 to 2017 and outperformed the autoregressive model by all metrics. While our Google Trends model performs better overall, this was not the case for each park unit individually; the accuracy of this model varied significantly from park to park. We hypothesized that park attributes related to trip planning would correlate with the accuracy of our Google Trends model, but none of the variables tested produced overly compelling results. Future research can continue exploring the utility of Google Trends to forecast visitor use in protected areas, or use methods demonstrated in this paper to explore alternative data sources to improve visitation forecasting in U.S. National Parks

Quantitative proteomic profiling of white matter in cases of cerebral amyloid angiopathy reveals upregulation of extracellular matrix proteins and clusterin

Aims: Cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) is the accumulation of amyloid beta (Aβ) in the walls of cerebral arterioles, arteries and capillaries. Changes in the white matter in CAA are observed as hyperintensities and dilated perivascular spaces on MRI suggesting impairment of fluid drainage but the pathophysiology behind these changes is poorly understood. We tested the hypothesis that proteins associated with clearance of Aβ peptides are upregulated in the white matter in cases of CAA.Methods: In this study, we compare the quantitative proteomic profile of white matter from post-mortem brains of patients with CAA and age-matched controls in order to gain insight into the cellular processes and key molecules involved in the pathophysiology of CAA.Results: Our proteomic analysis resulted in the profiling of 3,734 proteins (peptide FDR p<0.05). Of these, 189 were differentially expressed in CAA vs. control. Bioinformatics analysis of these proteins showed significant enrichment of proteins related to cell adhesion | cell-matrix interaction, mitochondrial dysfunction and hypoxia. Upregulated proteins in CAA included EMILIN2, COL4A2, TLN1, CLU, HSPG2. Downregulated proteins included DSP, IDE, HBG1.Conclusions: The present study reports an in-depth quantitative proteomic profiling of white matter from patients with CAA, highlighting extracellular matrix proteins and clusterin as key molecules in the pathophysiology of white matter changes in cases of CAA

An observational study to evaluate three pilot programmes of retesting chlamydia-positive individuals within 6 months in the South West of England

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate 3 pilot chlamydia retesting programmes in South West England which were initiated prior to the release of new National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP) guidelines recommending retesting in 2014. METHODS: Individuals testing positive between August 2012 and July 2013 in Bristol (n=346), Cornwall (n=252) and Dorset (n=180) programmes were eligible for inclusion in the retesting pilots. The primary outcomes were retest within 6 months (yes/no) and repeat diagnosis at retest (yes/no), adjusted for area, age and gender. RESULTS: Overall 303/778 (39.0%) of participants were retested within 6 months and 31/299 (10.4%) were positive at retest. Females were more likely to retest than males and Dorset had higher retesting rates than the other areas. CONCLUSIONS: More than a third of those eligible were retested within the time frame of the study. Chlamydia retesting programmes appear feasible within the context of current programmes to identify individuals at continued risk of infection with relatively low resource and time input