THE IMPACT OF EMPLOYMENT EXPANSION ON RURAL COMMUNITY SERVICE EXPENDITURES: A SMALL AREA MODEL

Labor and Human Capital, Public Economics,

A shift-share analysis of industrial composition and growth in the Lower Rio Grande Valley State Planning Region of Texas

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New technology adoption in two agricultural systems of the Niamey Region of Niger

This research evaluated the potential of improved cultivars (short cycle millet and cowpeas) and fertilizer (phosphorus and nitrogen) to increase farm household incomes in two farming systems. Four levels of factors were considered that can affect the adoption of new technologies; technical/economic factors, alternative investments, behavioral factors and policy factors. Differences in adoption potential between regions were also considered by comparing the potential of the new technologies in the two farming systems studied. Differences in the availability of land and labor, yields due to rainfall, and prices help explain differences in adoption potential between the two sites. The focus of this study is the Niamey Region of Niger. Resource conditions in the Niamey Region have given rise to many types of farming systems. Along the Niger River, the supply of land is inelastic, rainfall is higher and farmers follow variations of a dual rainfed/irrigated system (the River System). In areas away from the river, the supply of land is more elastic, rainfall is lower and extensive rainfed crop production practices and livestock activities predominate (the Dryland System). An expected profit formulation of a Discrete Stochastic Sequential Program (DSSP) was the methodology used to test the role of these factors. The timing of decisions by farmers is critical because of the uncertainty involved in crop and livestock production. This model is consistent with the observed adoptive behavior of farmers. In the River System, technology introduction can follow a step-wise strategy. Improved short cycle cultivars with phosphorus fertilizer are adopted according to model results. However, further research is needed to develop cultivars that will make nitrogen use viable and the production system sustainable. Thus, a major finding of this study is that the technical/economic factors may need to be given priority to facilitate crop technology introduction. Without a profitable technology including nitrogen that can compete with available investment alternatives, the policy and behavioral modifications by themselves will have little impact on adoption according to model results. For land abundant, lower rainfall areas such as the Dryland System, intensifying the cropping system will be more difficult except for the introduction of new cultivars. Under no feasible scenario changing policy conditions and technical parameters was chemical fertilizer introduced. Without fertilizer, even with new cultivars, the new system will not be sustainable. One implication is that in some marginal rainfall, poor soil resource regions, technological change does not have much potential income from crops. In some of these areas it may be more appropriate to encourage out-migration and concentrate on pasture and forestry

ADOPTION OF DOUBLE-CROPPING SOYBEANS AND WHEAT

Double-cropping of soybeans and wheat is often promoted by extension personnel. This paper seeks to explain how the decision to adopt double-cropping is made, using a Tobit regression model. Tobit makes use of more of the information in the data set than do logit or probit and explains not only the decision to double-crop but also the rate of adoption. The paper considers factors such as profit and risk perceptions and risk which have not been included in the past models used to explain adoption of technology. The results show that risk perception is important. Contrary to the findings of some other adoption studies, this decision is not influenced by human capital factors. The farmers who double-crop are more highly leveraged and appear to do so both to achieve higher income and as part of a risk diversification strategy. This is consistent with the importance of the location factor, measured as the average number of growing degree days at the farm's location. Growing degree days is a proxy for the actual distribution of returns from double-cropping and is the main factor explaining this decision. Extensive adoption of double-cropping in cooler regions of the Midwest must await technological advances that can increase the profitability of double-cropping by reducing the growing season for wheat and/or beans