(Table 3) Observations of Mediterranean water lenses in the Eastern North Atlantic

Spreading pattern and mesoscale structure of Mediterranean water outflow in the eastern North Atlantic are studied on the basis of historical hydrographical records. Effect of bottom topography on Mediterranean water distribution is revealed. It is shown that the Mediterranean water outflow is divided into two streams after leaving the Gulf of Cadiz. These are northwestern and southwestern ones; the former is more intensive and spreads in more regular and continuous way. West of the Tejo (Tagus) Plateau it splits into three branches; the most intense of them keeps continuity up to 14°W. The less intensive southwestern stream passes south of the Gettysburg Bank and splits into two branches immediately after the Gulf of Cadiz. From 11°W, this stream has lenticular, intermittent character. West of 14°-15°W all Mediterranean water branches are represented mainly by isolated salty patches. As a result of historical data analysis in the 32°-44°N, 8°-22°W area, 30 Mediterranean water lenses have been found; 12 of them had not been previously mentioned in publications. A table of main parameters of Mediterranean water lenses is presented. It includes data of 108 observations from 1911 to 1993

Abstract Author's personal copy Financial prediction with constrained tail risk

A new class of asymmetric loss functions derived from the least absolute deviations or least squares loss with a constraint on the mean of one tail of the residual error distribution, is introduced for analyzing financial data. Motivated by risk management principles, the primary intent is to provide ‘‘cautious’ ’ forecasts under uncertainty. The net effect on fitted models is to shape the residuals so that on average only a prespecified proportion of predictions tend to fall above or below a desired threshold. The loss functions are reformulated as objective functions in the context of parameter estimation for linear regression models, and it is demonstrated how optimization can be implemented via linear programming. The method is a competitor of quantile regression, but is more flexible and broader in scope. An application is illustrated on prediction of NDX and SPX index returns data, while controlling the magnitude of a fraction of worst losses

Zooplankton abundance and vertical fluxes of sedimentary matter and chemical elements in the White Sea from 15 to 24 June, 2000

A multidisciplinary oceanographic survey of the White Sea was carried out in the Gorlo Straight, Basin, and Kandalaksha Bay regions including estuaries of Niva, Kolvitza and Knyazhaya rivers. Hydrophysical study in the northern part of the Basin revealed long-lived step-like structures and inversions in vertical profiles of temperature and salinity, which formed due to tidal mixing of saline and cold Barents Sea waters and warmer White Sea waters in the Gorlo Straight. Biological studies revealed the main features of spatial distribution, as well as qualitative and quantitative composition of phyto- and zooplankton in all studied areas; tolerance of main zooplankton species to fresh water influence in estuaries was shown. Study of suspended matter in estuaries clearly demonstrated physicochemical transformations of material supplied by the rivers. Data on vertical particle flux in the deep part of the Kandalaksha Bay showed difference between the upper and near-bottom layers, which could result from sinking of spring phytoplankton bloom products and supply of terrigenic suspended matter from the nepheloid layer formed by tidal currents