Similarity, plausibility, and judgments of probability

Judging the strength of an argument may underlie many reasoning and decision-making tasks. In this article, we focus on "category-based" arguments, in which the premises and conclusion are of the form All members of C have property P, where C is a natural category. An example is "Dobermanns have sesamoid bones. Therefore, German shepherds have sesamoid bones." The strength of such an argument is reflected in the judged probability that the conclusion is true given that the premises are true. The processes that mediate such probability judgments depend on whether the predicate is "blank" - an unfamiliar property that does not enter the reasoning process (e.g., "have sesamoid bones") - or "non-blank" - a relatively familiar property that is easier to reason from (e.g., "can bite through wire"). With blank predicates, probability judgments are based on similarity relations between the premise and conclusion categories. With non-blank predicates, probability judgements are based on both similarity relations and the plausibility of premises and conclusion.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/30527/1/0000159.pd

Ampliative inference: on choosing a probability distribution

Ampliative inference is the choice of a probability distribution on the basis of incomplete information. We consider some psychological and normative questions that arise about this kind of reasoning. The discussion is largely tutorial although a substantive hypothesis is also advanced.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/30404/1/0000024.pd

Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology

Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/31673/1/0000609.pd

Extrapolating human probability judgment

We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43846/1/11238_2005_Article_BF01079209.pd

Foreign policy and globalization theory: The case of Israel

Since the early 1990s, international relations has witnessed a stimulating debate on globalization. This debate laid the foundations for globalization theory (GT), providing the tools for an empirical examination of the globalization of multiple activities: from politics and organized violence, to finance, trade and production, through culture and environmental degradation. However, examination of what appear to be the best-known works on globalization reveals that foreign policy has been virtually excluded from GT. In this context, based on what is described here as a synergistic transformationalist approach (STA) to globalization, I provide a critique of GT. The critique is geared towards examining why foreign policy hitherto has been overlooked by contemporary GT. I expose the problems this generates and address them by exploring how STA enables GT to incorporate foreign policy. I use the case of Israel heuristically to elicit how incorporating foreign policy into GT may provide a better understanding of the relationship between foreign policy and globalization. Three themes are highlighted: the role of foreign policy in inducing and reproducing globalization; determining the mutually constitutive relationship between globalization and the state; and shaping the interfacing between international politics and globalization

The Advantage Model: A Comparative Theory of Evaluation and Choice under Risk

A descriptive model of choice between monetary lotteries--called the Advantage Model of Choice--is proposed. According to the model, people evaluate lotteries in a choice problem by comparing them separately on the dimension of gains and on the dimension of losses. In making these comparisons, people employ both "absolute" and "comparative" strategies that are subsequently combined to yield a choice. The model is evaluated on both qualitative and quantitative grounds. As part of the qualitative evaluation, a number of previously documented phenomena that characterize people's choices between lotteries are reviewed. It is shown that the Advantage Model is consistent with these phenomena. As part of the quantitative evaluation, three experimental tests of the model are reported. The model's ability to predict both individual choice and group preference is evaluated, and the model is shown to compare favorably to particular versions of Prospect Theory and Utility Theory. It is suggested that the Advantage Model captures one of the underlying processes that guide human choice behavior in risky situations. Examples of the model's relevance to nonmonetary domains are provided.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/30660/1/0000302.pd