A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation

It is 20 years since Abbas and Bell [1994. “System Dynamics Applicability to Transportation Modeling.” Transportation Research Part A 28 (5): 373–390] evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of system dynamics (SD) as an approach for modelling in the transportation area. They listed 12 advantages of the approach and in particular suggested it was well suited to strategic issues and that it could provide a useful tool for supporting policy analysis and decision-making in the transport field. This paper sets out a review of over 50 peer-reviewed journal papers since 1994 categorising them by area of application and providing a summary of particular insights raised. The fields of application include the take-up of alternate fuel vehicles, supply chain management affecting transport, highway maintenance, strategic policy, airport infrastructure and airline business cycles and a set of emerging application areas. The paper concludes with recommendations for future application of the SD approach

Investigation of the Impacts of Effective Fuel Cost Increase on the US Air Transportation Network and Fleet

The cost of aviation fuel increased 244% between July 2004 and July 2008, becoming the largest operating cost item for airlines. Given the potential for future increases in crude oil prices, as well as environmental costs (i.e. from cap and trade schemes or taxes), the effective cost of aviation fuel may continue to increase, further impacting airlines’ financial performance and the provision of air service nationwide. We evaluate how fuel price increase and volatility affected continental US air transportation networks and fleets in the short- and medium-term using the increase in the 2007-08 and 2004-08 periods as a natural experiment. It was found that non-hub airports serving small communities lost 12% of connections, compared to an average loss of 2.8%, July 2004-08. It is believed that reduced access to the national air transportation system had social and economic impacts for small communities. Complementary analyses of aircraft fuel efficiency, airline economics, and airfares provided a basis for understanding some airline decisions. Increased effective fuel costs will provide incentives for airlines to improve fleet fuel efficiency, reducing the environmental effects of aviation, but may cause an uneven distribution of social and economic impacts as airline networks adapt. Government action may be required to determine acceptable levels of access to service as the air transportation system transitions to higher fuel costs.The authors would like to thank the MIT Partnership on AiR Transportation Noise & Emissions Reduction (PARTNER) for access to the Piano-X software package and Brian Yutko for his assistance in its use. This work was supported by the MIT/Masdar Institute of Science and Technology under grant number Mubadala Development Co. Agreement 12/1/06

Constant elasticity of substitution functions for energy modeling in general equilibrium integrated assessment models:a critical review and recommendations

Applying constant elasticity of substitution (CES) functions in general equilibrium integrated assessment models (GE-IAMs) for the substitution of technical factor inputs (e.g., replacing fossil fuels) fails to match historically observed patterns in energy transition dynamics. This method of substitution is also very sensitive to the structure of CES implementation (nesting) and parameter choice. The resulting methodology-related artifacts are (i) the extension of the status quo technology shares for future energy supply relying on fossil fuels with carbon capture, biomass, and nuclear; (ii) monotonically increasing marginal abatement costs of carbon; and (iii) substitution of energy with non-physical inputs (e.g., knowledge and capital) without conclusive evidence that this is possible to the extent modeled. We demonstrate these issues using simple examples and analyze how they are relevant in the case of four major CES-based GE-IAMs. To address this, we propose alternative formulations either by opting for carefully applied perfect substitution for alternative energy options or by introducing dynamically variable elasticity of substitution as a potential intermediate solution. Nevertheless, complementing the economic analysis with physical modeling accounting for storage and resource availability at a high resolution spatially and temporally would be preferable

Denitrification and greenhouse gas emissions in natural and semi-natural terrestrial ecosystems [LTLS]

Ullah, S.; Sgouridis, F. (2017). Denitrification and greenhouse gas emissions in natural and semi-natural terrestrial ecosystems [LTLS]. NERC Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/d970c095-129a-41ac-9c82-950ab780458

Simulation analysis for midterm yard planning in container terminal

The continuing growth of marine container transport and the complexity in the analysis of terminal port operations have resulted in a situation where computer simulation is mostly suited. This paper focuses on the simulated handling of incoming containers transported on trucks. It is applied on a medium-size terminal using an "All-Straddle-Carrier" system. Input data include parameters of space, speed, and arrival frequency in a generic format, thus making the model adjustable. Results on the service level, i.e., service times, utilization factors, and queues, are generated for analysis. The simulated system is used for short to midterm planning purposes, as well as a process improvement tool. A number of experiments provided the basis for evaluating case terminal performance and determining the potential for further operational improvements