Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic : potential for subsea permafrost instability

Summer hydrographic data (1920–2009) show a dramatic warming of the bottom water layer over the eastern Siberian shelf coastal zone (<10 m depth), since the mid-1980s, by 2.1°C. We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere. The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly through thermodynamic melting. This leads to a lengthening of the summer open-water season and to more solar heating of the water column. The permafrost modeling indicates, however, that a significant change in the permafrost depth lags behind the imposed changes in surface temperature, and after 25 years of summer seafloor warming (as observed from 1985 to 2009), the upper boundary of permafrost deepens only by ∼1 m. Thus, the observed increase in temperature does not lead to a destabilization of methane-bearing subsea permafrost or to an increase in methane emission. The CH4 supersaturation, recently reported from the eastern Siberian shelf, is believed to be the result of the degradation of subsea permafrost that is due to the long-lasting warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 years ago rather than from those triggered by recent Arctic climate changes. A significant degradation of subsea permafrost is expected to be detectable at the beginning of the next millennium. Until that time, the simulated permafrost table shows a deepening down to ∼70 m below the seafloor that is considered to be important for the stability of the subsea permafrost and the permafrost-related gas hydrate stability zone

The penetrative mixing in the Laptev Sea coastal polynya pycnocline layer

The large recurrent areas of open water and/or thin ice (polynyas) producing cold brine-enriched waters off the fast-ice edge are evident in the Laptev Sea in winter time. A number of abrupt positively correlated transitions in temperature and salinity were recorded in the bottom and intermediate layers at a mooring station in the West New Siberian (WNS) polynya in February-March 2008. Being in the range of -0.5 degrees C and -1.6 psu these changes are induced by horizontal motions across the polynya and correspond to temperature and salinity horizontal gradients in the range of 0.3-1.0 degrees C/10 km and 1.4-3.5 psu/10 km, respectively. The events of distinct freshening and temperature decrease coincide with a northward current off the fast-ice edge, while southward currents brought saltier and warmer waters at intermediate depths. We suggest that the observed transitions are connected to altering pycnocline depths across the polynya. The source of relatively fresher waters at the intermediate depths in polynya is supposed to originate from penetrative mixing of surface low salinity waters to intermediate water depth. Several forcing processes that could be responsible for a penetrative mixing through the density interface in polynya are discussed. These are penetrative convection and shear-driven mixing that originates from two-layer water dynamics and/or baroclinic tidal motions. The heavily ridged seaward fast-ice edge could produce an additional source of turbulent mixing even through a shear-free density interface due to the increased roughness at the ice-water interfac

Classical nonlinear response of a chaotic system: Langevin dynamics and spectral decomposition

We consider the classical response of a strongly chaotic Hamiltonian system. The spectrum of such a system consists of discrete complex Ruelle-Pollicott (RP) resonances which manifest themselves in the behavior of the correlation and response functions. We interpret the RP resonances as the eigenstates and eigenvalues of the Fokker-Planck operator obtained by adding an infinitesimal noise term to the first-order Liouville operator. We demonstrate how the deterministic expression for the linear response is reproduced in the limit of vanishing noise. For the second-order response we establish an equivalence of the spectral decomposition with infinitesimal noise and the long-time asymptotic expansion for the deterministic case.Comment: 16 pages, 1 figur

Modified halocline water over the Laptev Sea continental margin : historical data analysis

Historical hydrographic data (1940s–2010) show a distinct cross-slope difference of the lower halocline water (LHW) over the Laptev Sea continental margins. Over the slope, the LHW is on average warmer and saltier by 0.2°C and 0.5 psu, respectively, relative to the off-slope LHW. The LHW temperature time series constructed from the on-slope historical records are related to the temperature of the Atlantic Water (AW) boundary current transporting warm water from the North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the on-slope LHW salinity is linked to the sea ice and wind forcing over the potential upstream source region in the Barents and northern Kara Seas, as also indicated by hydrodynamic model results. Over the Laptev Sea continental margin, saltier LHW favors weaker salinity stratification that, in turn, contributes to enhanced vertical mixing with underlying AW

Arctic Ocean outflow and glacier-ocean interactions modify water over the Wandel Sea shelf (northeastern Greenland)

Abstract. The first-ever conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) observations on the Wandel Sea shelf in northeastern Greenland were collected in April–May 2015. They were complemented by CTDs taken along the continental slope during the Norwegian FRAM 2014–2015 drift. The CTD profiles are used to reveal the origin of water masses and interactions with ambient water from the continental slope and the tidewater glacier outlet. The subsurface water is associated with the Pacific water outflow from the Arctic Ocean. The underlying halocline separates the Pacific water from a deeper layer of polar water that has interacted with the warm Atlantic water outflow through the Fram Strait, recorded below 140 m. Over the outer shelf, the halocline shows numerous cold density-compensated intrusions indicating lateral interaction with an ambient polar water mass across the continental slope. At the front of the tidewater glacier outlet, colder and turbid water intrusions were observed at the base of the halocline. On the temperature–salinity plots these stations indicate a mixing line that is different from the ambient water and seems to be conditioned by the ocean–glacier interaction. Our observations of Pacific water are set within the context of upstream observations in the Beaufort Sea and downstream observations from the Northeast Water Polynya, and clearly show the modification of Pacific water during its advection across the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, ambient water over the Wandel Sea slope shows different thermohaline structures indicating the different origin and pathways of the on-shore and off-shore branches of the Arctic Ocean outflow through the western Fram Strait. </jats:p

Seasonal variability in Atlantic water off Spitsbergen

A combination of 2-year-long mooring-based measurements and snapshot conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) observations at the continental slope off Spitsbergen (81°30′N, 31°00′E) is used to demonstrate a significant hydrographic seasonal signal in Atlantic Water (AW) that propagates along the Eurasian continental slope in the Arctic Ocean. At the mooring position this seasonal signal dominates, contributing up to 50% of the total variance. Annual temperature maximum in the upper ocean (above 215 m) is reached in mid-November, when the ocean in the area is normally covered by ice. Distinct division into ‘summer’ (warmer and saltier) and ‘winter’ (colder and fresher) AW types is revealed there. Estimated temperature difference between the ‘summer’ and ‘winter’ waters is 1.2 °C, which implies that the range of seasonal heat content variations is of the same order of magnitude as the mean local AW heat content, suggesting an important role of seasonal changes in the intensity of the upward heat flux from AW. Although the current meter observations are only 1-year long, they hint at a persistent, highly barotropic current with little or no seasonal signal attached

Role of barotropic sealevel changes in current formation on the eastern shelf of the Laptev Sea

45 pagesWe associate motivic zeta functions to a large class of infinite dimensional Lie algebra

Atlantic water flow into the Arctic Ocean through the St. Anna Trough in the northern Kara Sea

The Atlantic Water flow from the Barents and Kara seas to the Arctic Ocean through the St. Anna Trough (SAT) is conditioned by interaction between Fram Strait branch water circulating in the SAT and Barents Sea branch water—both of Atlantic origin. Here we present data from an oceanographic mooring deployed on the eastern flank of the SAT from September 2009 to September 2010 as well as CTD (conductivity-temperature-depth) sections across the SAT. A distinct vertical density front over the SAT eastern slope deeper than ∼50 m is attributed to the outflow of Barents Sea branch water to the Arctic Ocean. In turn, the Barents Sea branch water flow to the Arctic Ocean is conditioned by two water masses defined by relative low and high fractions of the Atlantic Water. They are also traceable in the Nansen Basin downstream of the SAT entrance. A persistent northward current was recorded in the subsurface layer along the SAT eastern slope with a mean velocity of 18 cm s−1 at 134–218 m and 23 cm s−1 at 376–468 m. Observations and modeling suggest that the SAT flow has a significant density-driven component. It is therefore expected to respond to changes in the cross-trough density gradient conditioned by interaction between the Fram Strait and Barents Sea branches. Further modeling efforts are necessary to investigate hydrodynamic instability and eddy generation caused by the interaction between the SAT flow and the Arctic Ocean Fram Strait branch water boundary current