210 research outputs found

    Prevalence of low back pain and associated factors among taxi drivers in Johor Bahru

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    Low back pain is one of the common musculoskeletal disorders affecting taxi drivers in the transportation sector. The problem is frequently associated with prolonged sitting while driving, whole body vibration and manual handling of goods to be delivered. There are approximately 73,893 licences issued for taxi drivers in Malaysia and 10.5% of them are based in the Johor Bahru, most probably due to located in town and near to Singapore. The main objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of low back pain and associated factors among taxi drivers in Johor Bahru for the year 2012. The sample size required for this study was 228 respondents but only 224 respondents were managed to be approached for administration of assisted questionnaire. The response rate of this study was 98.2%. Results showed that the prevalence of low back pain in the past twelve months was 49.1%. Majority of the respondents were Malay (84.4%), and nonsmokers (90.2%). The prevalence of low back pain was higher among those who drove Wira taxis (55.5%), Indian and other ethnicities (56.0%). There was a significant association between low back pain and marital status. Abnormal Body Mass Index (BMI) status was significantly related to low back pain as well, supporting the postulated hypotheses. The study also revealed significant association between low back pain and manual handling, which includes lifting, bending and twisting the lower back. There was a higher prevalence of low back pain among taxi drivers who are not satisfied with their work (66.7%) and among those who lack support at work (53.8%). It was also found that the taxi drivers are highly aware of the low back pain problem and in need for early prevention and treatment. Therefore, necessary interventions need to be implemented to reduce the prevalence of low back pain among taxi drivers to retain them in the job and enhance productivit

    Water Responsive Mechano-adaptive Elastomer Composites based on Active Filler Morphology

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    Mechanically adaptable elastomer composites are a class of stimuli responsive polymer composites which can reversibly change its mechanical properties when it comes in contact with stimuli like electric field, light, water, solvents, ions and others. Mechanically adaptable composites are mainly inspired from the sea cucumber dermis which has the ability to change the stiffness of its dermis rapidly and reversibly (connecting tissue) when it is immersed in water. In this work, efforts have been made to develop mechano-adaptive elastomer composites using water as stimuli. In such a case, elastomer composite should absorb water significantly, in order to respond quickly to the stimuli. Therefore, as a first step, stable and repeatable water swellable elastomer composites have been developed by blending epichlorohydrin terpolymer (GECO) with an ethylene oxide based hydrophilic polymer resin (GEPO). Two different approaches have been thereafter explored to develop mechano-adapative composites based on the developed water swellable elastomer composite. In the first approach, the solid–liquid phase transition of the absorbed water is used to tune mechanical properties around 0 °C. The solidified absorbed water (ice crystals) below 0 °C, acts as reinforcing filler, enhancing the mechanical properties (hard state). The ice crystals liquefy above 0 °C and plasticize the polymer chain, thereby reducing the mechanical properties (soft state). In the second approach, the polymorphic transition of calcium sulphate (CaSO4) in presence of water/heat have been exploited by dispersing it as filler in the developed water swellable elastomer composite. Mechanical adaptability is realized by the reinforcement caused when the composite is exposed to water treatment process. Further, this mechanical strength (reinforcement) can be brought back to its initial soft state (unreinforced state) by the heat treatment process. This reversible reinforcing and non-reinforcing ability of the calcium sulphate filler is attributed to the differences in polymer–filler interaction, due to the in situ morphology transformation (micro to nano) of the filler particles. This study reveals the possibility of utilizing conventional rubber technology in developing mechanically adaptable composites with an easily accessible stimulus like water. The two strategies explored here present huge opportunities in developing future smart materials.:Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 General introduction 1 1.2 Aim and motivation of the work 3 1.3 Scope of the work 5 2 Literature review 7 2.1 Mechanically adaptive polymer composites 7 2.1.1 Mechanical adaptability triggered by different stimuli 7 2.1.2 Water induced mechano-adaptive composites 10 2.1.3 Possible future applications of mechanically adaptive systems 14 2.2 Water absorption in elastomer composites 16 2.2.1 Strategies used for developing water swellable elastomer composites 17 2.2.2 States of water present in the polymers 20 2.2.3 Effect of water absorption on the thermal and mechanical properties 22 2.2.4 Kinetics of diffusion of water in the hydrophilic polymers 24 2.2.5 Application of water swellable elastomer composites 25 2.3 Calcium sulphate and its polymorphic transition 26 3 Experimental 30 3.1 Materials 30 3.1.1 Polymers 30 3.1.2 Fillers 31 3.2 Preparation of rubber composites 32 3.2.1 Compounding and mixing 32 3.2.2 Curing study and molding 34 3.3 Characterization 35 3.3.1 Water swelling studies 35 3.3.2 Thermal analysis (DSC and TGA) 36 3.3.3 Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) 36 3.3.4 Stress–strain studies 37 3.3.5 Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) 38 3.3.6 Morphological analysis 39 3.3.7 X-ray diffraction (XRD) 40 3.3.8 Raman spectroscopy 40 4 Results and discussions 42 4.1 Development of novel water swellable elastomer composites based on GECO/GEPO 42 4.1.1 Miscibility of the polymer blend (GECO/GEPO) systems 42 4.1.2 Water absorption behavior of GECO/GEPO blends 49 4.1.3 Effect of water swelling on thermal and mechanical properties 54 4.1.4 Cyclic water swellable characteristics 58 4.2 Thermo-responsive mechano-adaptable composites based on solid–liquid phase transition of absorbed water. 60 4.2.1 Quantitative analysis of in situ formed ice crystals 61 4.2.2 Characterization of the filler (ice crystals) morphology 64 4.2.3 Polymer–filler interaction 68 4.2.4 Mechanical adaptability analysis 71 4.3 Utilization of in situ polymorphic alteration of the filler structure in designing mechanically adaptive elastomer composites 77 4.3.1 Process and conditions for mechanical adaptability 79 4.3.2 Investigation of phase transition characteristics of CaSO4 filler 83 4.3.3 In situ morphology transformation analysis 86 4.3.4 Mechanical adaptability investigations 89 5 Conclusions and outlook 96 5.1 Conclusions 96 5.2 Outlooks 99 6 References 100 7 Appendix 109 8 Abbreviations 111 9 Symbols 114 10 Figures 117 11 Tables 123 12 Publications 124Mechanisch-adaptive Elastomer-Verbundwerkstoffe sind eine Klasse von stimuli-responsiven Polymer-Verbundwerkstoffen, welche ihre mechanischen Eigenschaften reversibel verändern können, wenn sie mit Stimuli, wie z.B. einem elektrischem Feld, Licht, Wasser, Lösungsmitteln oder Ionen angeregt werden. Mechanisch anpassbare Verbundwerkstoffe sind hauptsächlich von der Haut der Seegurke inspiriert, welche in der Lage ist, die Steifigkeit ihrer Dermis (Bindegewebe) beim Eintauchen in Wasser schnell und reversibel zu verändern. Ziel dieser Arbeit war, mechanisch-adaptive Elastomer-Verbundwerkstoffe zu entwickeln, welche Wasser als Stimulus nutzen. Für diese Anwendung sollte das Elastomermaterial Wasser in einer signifikanten Menge aufnehmen können, um schnell auf den externen Reiz zu reagieren. Daher wurden in einem ersten Schritt stabile und reversibel wasserquellbare Elastomerblends hergestellt, indem ein Epichlorhydrin-Terpolymer (GECO) mit einem hydrophilen Polymerharz auf Ethylenoxidbasis (GEPO) verschnitten wurde. In der Folge wurden zwei verschiedene Ansätze zur Entwicklung mechanisch-adaptiver Verbundwerkstoffe auf Basis des so entwickelten wasserquellbaren Elastomerkomposites verfolgt. Beim ersten Ansatz wird der Fest-Flüssig-Phasenübergang des aufgenommenen Wassers genutzt, um die mechanischen Eigenschaften im‚ Bereich von 0 °C einzustellen. Das erstarrte absorbierte Wasser (Eiskristalle) wirkt unter 0 °C als verstärkender Füllstoff und verbessert die mechanischen Eigenschaften (harter Zustand). Die Eiskristalle verflüssigen sich oberhalb von 0 °C und plastifizieren das Polymer, wodurch die mechanische Verstärkung wieder herabgesetzt wird (weicher Zustand). Im zweiten Ansatz wurde der polymorphe Übergang von Calciumsulfat (CaSO4) in Gegenwart von Wasser bzw. Wärme genutzt, indem es als Füllstoff in einem wasserquellbaren Elastomerkomposit dispergiert wurde. Die mechanische Adaptierbarkeit wird durch die mechanische Verstärkung erreicht, welche bei der Wasseraufnahme des Verbundwerkstoffes entsteht. Anschließend kann diese mechanische Festigkeit (Verstärkung) durch eine Wärmebehandlung wieder in ihren ursprünglichen weichen Zustand (unverstärkter Zustand) zurückgeführt werden. Diese reversible Schaltbarkeit der Verstärkungswirkung des Calciumsulfat-Füllstoffes wird auf die Unterschiede in der Polymer-Füllstoff-Wechselwirkung aufgrund der Transformation der in situ-Morphologie (Mikro zu Nano) der Füllstoffpartikel zurückgeführt. Die vorliegende Arbeit verdeutlicht die Möglichkeiten des Einsatzes konventioneller Kautschuktechnologie bei der Entwicklung mechanisch anpassbarer Komposite mit einem leicht zugänglichen Stimulus wie Wasser. Die beiden hier untersuchten Strategien eröffnen enorme Perspektiven bei der Konzeption zukünftiger intelligenter Materialien.:Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 General introduction 1 1.2 Aim and motivation of the work 3 1.3 Scope of the work 5 2 Literature review 7 2.1 Mechanically adaptive polymer composites 7 2.1.1 Mechanical adaptability triggered by different stimuli 7 2.1.2 Water induced mechano-adaptive composites 10 2.1.3 Possible future applications of mechanically adaptive systems 14 2.2 Water absorption in elastomer composites 16 2.2.1 Strategies used for developing water swellable elastomer composites 17 2.2.2 States of water present in the polymers 20 2.2.3 Effect of water absorption on the thermal and mechanical properties 22 2.2.4 Kinetics of diffusion of water in the hydrophilic polymers 24 2.2.5 Application of water swellable elastomer composites 25 2.3 Calcium sulphate and its polymorphic transition 26 3 Experimental 30 3.1 Materials 30 3.1.1 Polymers 30 3.1.2 Fillers 31 3.2 Preparation of rubber composites 32 3.2.1 Compounding and mixing 32 3.2.2 Curing study and molding 34 3.3 Characterization 35 3.3.1 Water swelling studies 35 3.3.2 Thermal analysis (DSC and TGA) 36 3.3.3 Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) 36 3.3.4 Stress–strain studies 37 3.3.5 Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) 38 3.3.6 Morphological analysis 39 3.3.7 X-ray diffraction (XRD) 40 3.3.8 Raman spectroscopy 40 4 Results and discussions 42 4.1 Development of novel water swellable elastomer composites based on GECO/GEPO 42 4.1.1 Miscibility of the polymer blend (GECO/GEPO) systems 42 4.1.2 Water absorption behavior of GECO/GEPO blends 49 4.1.3 Effect of water swelling on thermal and mechanical properties 54 4.1.4 Cyclic water swellable characteristics 58 4.2 Thermo-responsive mechano-adaptable composites based on solid–liquid phase transition of absorbed water. 60 4.2.1 Quantitative analysis of in situ formed ice crystals 61 4.2.2 Characterization of the filler (ice crystals) morphology 64 4.2.3 Polymer–filler interaction 68 4.2.4 Mechanical adaptability analysis 71 4.3 Utilization of in situ polymorphic alteration of the filler structure in designing mechanically adaptive elastomer composites 77 4.3.1 Process and conditions for mechanical adaptability 79 4.3.2 Investigation of phase transition characteristics of CaSO4 filler 83 4.3.3 In situ morphology transformation analysis 86 4.3.4 Mechanical adaptability investigations 89 5 Conclusions and outlook 96 5.1 Conclusions 96 5.2 Outlooks 99 6 References 100 7 Appendix 109 8 Abbreviations 111 9 Symbols 114 10 Figures 117 11 Tables 123 12 Publications 12

    Comparison of the accuracy of root ZX mini and Raypex 6 in detecting apical constriction in human permanent maxillary anterior teeth in the presence of various irrigants using Stereomicroscope: An In Vitro study

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    AIM OF THE STUDY: To compare the Accuracy of Root ZX mini (J.Morita Corp., Tokyo, Japan) and Raypex6 (VDW, Munich, Germany) apex locators in detecting the apical constriction in human permanent maxillary anterior teeth in the presence of 0.9% saline; 5% sodium hypochlorite; 2% chlorhexidine digluconate, as various intracanal irrigants. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixty extracted, straight, single rooted permanent human maxillary anterior teeth were randomly divided into two main groups according to the apex locators tested such as Group1 (n=30,Root ZX mini) Group 2 (n=30,Raypex6). Then each group is further divided into 3 subgroups according to the irrigants used such as Group 1A(n=10, Root ZX mini,0.9% normal saline), Group 1B(n=10,Root ZX mini,5% NaOCl),Group 1C(n=10,Root ZX mini,2% chlorhexidine digluconate), Group2A(n=10,Raypex6,0.9% normal saline), Group2B (n=10,Raypex6, 5% sodium hypochlorite), Group2C (n=10,Raypex6, 2% chlorhexidine digluconate). The teeth were decoronated at the level of cementoenamel junction and the actual length (AL) of each specimen was determined by introducing a size 10 or 15 K file into the canal until its tip emerged through the major apical foramen at ×10 magnification under a stereomicroscope. Each specimen was embedded in the gelatin model and the EALs were tested according to the manufacturer’s instructions. The Electronically measured canal length was recorded by using size 10 or 15 K file(EL). Then the K-files were fixed at the WL determined electronically with GIC. The apical 4 mm of the root was longitudinally sectioned and examined under Stereomicroscope with 30x magnification.The distance from the file tip to the minor diameter is calculated from the Stereomicroscopic images. Independent sample t test and Pearson Chi-Square test was used to statistically analyse the significance of irrigants on the accuracy of apex locators and to compare the accuracy of both apex locators. Significance was set at P<0.05. RESULTS: The overall accuracy of measurements within ±0.5 mm of AL by Root ZX mini was 93.33% and Raypex 6 was 90% respectively. CONCLUSION: Within the limitations of this in vitro study the two electronic apex locators, the Root ZX mini and the Raypex6 were found to have similar accuracy and the use of 5% NaOCl, 0.9% normal saline, or 2% Chlorhexidine as irrigation solutions did not affect the accuracy of the two apex locators in detecting the apical constriction

    Pembangunan dan penilaian perisian e-PBL ReC untuk kursus kejuruteraan

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    Kajian ini bertujuan membangunkan prototaip perisian pembelajaran untuk kursus kejuruteraan (e-PBL ReC) sebagai bahan sokongan pembelajaran bagi membantu memenuhi keperluan proses pembelajaran dengan menggunakan pendekatan PBL. Objektif kajian ini adalah untuk mengenal pasti keperluan pengguna, mereka bentuk dan membangunkan serta menilai perisian dari aspek kebergunaan perisian dari segi elemen yang diintegrasikan membantu memenuhi keperluan pelajar dalam proses pembelajaran. Kajian ini bersifat pembangunan produk dengan menggunakan model ADDIE dan kaedah kajian berbentuk kajian kuantitatif yang disokong oleh kajian kualitatif. Responden kajian telah melibatkan 146 orang pelajar, empat orang tenaga pengajar dan empat orang pakar pembelajaran atas talian dalam kajian analisis keperluan manakala kajian analisis reka bentuk perisian pula melibatkan pakar, tenaga pengajar dan pelajar serta bagi kajian penilaian kebergunaan perisian e-PBL ReC pula, responden kajian terdiri daripada 35 orang pelajar yang telah ditetapkan dalam satu kelas sedia ada. Hasil dapatan kajian daripada analisis keperluan telah dijadikan kayu ukur untuk mereka bentuk perisian dan responden kajian telah memberikan maklum balas yang positif berhubung pembangunan perisian e-PBL ReC dalam kajian analisis reka bentuk perisian serta hasil dapatan kajian kebergunaan perisian e-PBL ReC mendapati perisian membantu memenuhi keperluan pelajar dalam proses pembelajaran dengan elemen yang diintegrasikan berasaskan pendekatan PBL, teori behaviorisme, teori kognitivisme, teori konstruktivisme, unsur multimedia dan interaksi. Implikasi kajian ini ialah keupayaan perisian e-PBL ReC mampu memantapkan kemahiran penyelesaian masalah untuk kerjaya masa depan pelajar, dapat membantu melanjutkan proses pembelajaran konvensional, membantu tenaga pengajar dalam menyediakan aktiviti sokongan pembelajaran dan satu panduan dapat disediakan kepada pembangun perisian pendidikan. Sumbangan keseluruhan kajian ini ialah perisian pembelajaran (e-PBL ReC), model pembangunan perisian, perisian yang membantu memenuhi keperluan pelajar kejuruteraan, perisian yang membantu dalam pemerolehan kemahiran penyelesaian masalah, instrumen kajian dan keputusan

    Sistem keselamatan kandang kambing berasaskan aplikasi Blynk

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    Projek ini dijalankan adalah untuk membangunkan sebuah prototaip sistem keselamatan kandang kambing berasaskan aplikasi blynk untuk membantu penternak dalam mengawal keselamatan serta menangani kes kecurian dengan memberi notifikasi kepada penternak. Model Design Thinking digunakan sebagai panduan dalam membangunkan prototaip ini yang mempunyai lima fasa yang perlu diikuti di mana antara fasa yang terlibat ialah empathy, define problem, ideate, prototype dan test. Modul Wi-Fi iaitu ESP 32 merupakan komponen utama dan perisian Arduino digunakan untuk tujuan pengekodan serta aplikasi blynk digunakan untuk menerima notifikasi. Empat orang pakar telah menguji kebolehfungsian dengan menggunakan senarai semak serta cadangan penambahbaikan telah diberikan. Hasil dapatan penilaian menunjukkan maklum balas yang positif dari kesesuaian prototaip, aspek reka bentuk, kebolehfungsian dan cadangan penambaihbakan telah diberikan terhadap prototaip ini seperti GPS tracking dan pengesan kebakaran. Pembangunan prototaip Shelter Security System ini dapat memberi idea terhadap perkembangan teknologi IoT dalam bidang keselamatan serta dapat membantu penternak mengatasi masalah kecurian kambing

    An Adaptive Firefly Optimization (AFO) with Multi-Kernel SVM (MKSVM) Classification for Big Data Dimensionality Reduction

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    The data's dimensionality had already risen sharply in the last several decades. The "Dimensionality Curse" (DC) is a problem for conventional learning techniques when dealing with "Big Data (BD)" with a higher level of dimensionality. A learning model's performance degrades when there is a numerous range of features present. "Dimensionality Reduction (DR)" approaches are used to solve the DC issue, and the field of "Machine Learning (ML)" research is significant in this regard. It is a prominent procedure to use "Feature Selection (FS)" to reduce dimensions. Improved learning effectiveness such as greater classification precision, cheaper processing costs, and improved model comprehensibility are all typical outcomes of this approach that selects an optimal portion of the original features based on some relevant assessment criteria. An "Adaptive Firefly Optimization (AFO)" technique based on the "Map Reduce (MR)" platform is developed in this research. During the initial phase (mapping stage) the whole large "DataSet (DS)" is first subdivided into blocks of contexts. The AFO technique is then used to choose features from its large DS. In the final phase (reduction stage), every one of the fragmentary findings is combined into a single feature vector. Then the "Multi Kernel Support Vector Machine (MKSVM)" classifier is used as classification in this research to classify the data for appropriate class from the optimal features obtained from AFO for DR purposes. We found that the suggested algorithm AFO combined with MKSVM (AFO-MKSVM) scales very well to high-dimensional DSs which outperforms the existing approach "Linear Discriminant Analysis-Support Vector Machine (LDA-SVM)" in terms of performance. The evaluation metrics such as Information-Ratio for Dimension-Reduction, Accuracy, and Recall, indicate that the AFO-MKSVM method established a better outcome than the LDA-SVM method

    Penilaian Perkhidmatan Dan Kemudahan Kerajaan Tempatan Untuk Peniaga Kecil Di Bandar Bentong, Pahang.

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    Local authorities play an important role in urban development. Urbanization and development that occur simultaneously and drastically created many challenges to the local authorities in providing services and facilities especially for the small scale traders in the city. The provision of business spaces, trading licenses and permits are very important in determining the direction and role of small scale traders in the economic market in future. An evaluation of a local authority’s services and facilities for small scale traders in the city can help the local government in planning, managing and improving the services and facilities provided to facilitate the local economic development. In addition, this study also aims to investigate the effectiveness and the strategies used by the local authority, particularly the Bentong Municipal Council (MPB), in providing services and facilities to small scale traders in the study area. Quantitative and qualitative analyse have been done towards the information and data obtained from primary and secondary sources, through survey questionnaires and interviews with MPB officers as well as community leaders. Findings from this research showed that there were some problems faced by the small scale traders in regards to the services and facilities provided by the MPB. Among the problems are design of the stalls, limited stall area, insufficient car parking lots, water supply and others. Few suggestions have been recommended for the MPB to improve the quality of its services. This study hopes to contribute useful information in these issues and become the pioneer for future studies. Although small scale traders are just a small component in the function and development of the city, the role of local authorities in providing services and facilities for the traders in achieving socioeconomic development is very vital

    Antidepressant and Anxiolytic Effects of Whole Plant Extract of Mimosa Pudica Linn

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    From the study entitled Anxiolytic and Anti depressant effects whole plant extract of Mimosa Pudica linn the following conclusions could be drawn. • The plant study has thus supported the traditional use of aqueous extract of Mimosa Pudica for Anxiolytic and Anti depressant activity. • Apart from the research works enlisted in discussion part absence of acute toxicity may also offer a new hope for safe treatment. • Preliminary phytochemical study Aqueous extract of Mimosa Pudica was found to contain Carbohydrate, Protein, Steroids, Flavonoids, Alkaloids, Saponins, Tannins and Amino acids. • Presence of phytochemicals in Aqueous extract was concluded in HPTLC Analysis. • Though present in small quantities it was found to produce considerable effects. • The results of present study indicate that the Aqueous extract of Mimosa Pudica was non toxic upto dose level of (2000mg/kg, p.o.) body weight in albino mice as acute oral toxicity studies. 1/10th of the LD50 Dose is (200mg/kg, p.o.) is used for pharmacological screening. • Evaluation of Anxiolytic and Anti depressant activity Aqueous extract of Mimosa Pudica showed significant Antidepressant active property by obtained significant results against open field test, Elevated Plus Maze test and Y Maze Test. It may be concluded that compound at the (200mg/kg, p.o.) body weight displays a significant Anti depressant activity compared to standard drug fluoxetine. • In future further investigation might provide an insight to identify the functional groups in the Aqueous extract of Mimosa Pudica active responsible for the Anxiolytic and Anti depressant effects and to elucidate the exact mechanism of action which is responsible for the observed significant activity with low toxicity and better therapeutic index

    Pembangunan dan penilaian easy radio learning aid sebagai alat bahan bantu mengajar dalam amali

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    Easy Radio merupakan sebuah alat bahan bantu mengajar yang dapat meningkatkan tahap kognitif pelajar dalam amali. Inovasi ini tercetus disebabkan terdapat kekurangan alat bahan bantu mengajar yang sedia ada untuk subtopik membaikpulih radio di Kolej Vokasional. Tujuan projek adalah untuk membangunkan Easy Radio sebagai alat bahan bantu mengajar dan menilai kebolehgunaan Easy Radio bagi modul Audio dan Video Maintenance 1 (ETN 203). Model ADDIE dijadikan panduan dalam perlaksanaan projek ini yang melibatkan fasa analisis, reka bentuk, pembangunan, perlaksanaan dan penilaian. Senarai semak digunakan untuk mengumpul data daripada empat (4) orang pakar dan data dinterpretasi dalam bentuk peratusan. Hasil maklumbalas menunjukkan pakar bersetuju terhadap aspek kesesuaian reka bentuk dan kebolehgunaan Easy Radio. Sumbangan projek ini adalah sebagai ABBM dan dapatan yang boleh dijadikan untuk penambahbaikan kepada kajian akan datang

    Methodology for development of drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) Curves

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    Drought monitoring and early warning are essential elements impacting drought sensitive sectors such as primary production, industrial and consumptive water users. A quantitative estimate of the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought is crucial for the development of mitigating strategies. The overall aim of this study is to develop a methodology to assess drought frequency and severity and to advance the understanding of monitoring and predicting droughts in the future. Seventy (70) meteorological stations across Victoria, Australia were selected for analysis. To achieve the above objective, the analysis was initially carried out to select the most applicable meteorological drought index for Victoria. This is important because to date, no drought indices are applied across Australia by any Commonwealth agency quantifying drought impacts. An evaluation of existing meteorological drought indices namely, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Deciles was first conducted to assess their suitability for the determination of drought conditions. The use of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was shown to be satisfactory for assessing and monitoring meteorological droughts in Australia. When applied to data, SPI was also successful in detecting the onset and the end of historical droughts. Temporal changes in historic rainfall variability and the trend of SPI were investigated using non-parametric trend techniques to detect wet and dry periods across Victoria, Australia. The first part of the analysis was carried out to determine annual rainfall trends using Mann Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope tests at five selected meteorological stations with long historical records (more than 100 years), as well as a short sub-set period (1949-2011) of the same data set. It was found that different trend results were obtained for the sub-set. For SPI trend analysis, it was observed that, although different results were obtained showing significant trends, SPI gave a trend direction similar to annual precipitation (downward and upward trends). In addition, temporal trends in the rate of occurrence of drought events (i.e. inter-arrival times) were examined. The fact that most of the stations showed negative slopes indicated that the intervals between events were becoming shorter and the frequency of events was temporally increasing. Based on the results obtained from the preliminary analysis, the trend analyses were then carried out for the remaining 65 stations. The main conclusions from these analyses are summarized as follows; 1) the trend analysis was observed to be highly dependent on the start and end dates of analysis. It is recommended that in the selection of time period for the drought, trend analysis should consider the length xvi of available data sets. Longer data series would give more meaningful results, thus improving the understanding of droughts impacted by climate change. 2) From the SPI and inter-arrival drought trends, it was observed that some of the study areas in Victoria will face more frequent dry period leading to increased drought occurrence. Information similar to this would be very important to develop suitable strategies to mitigate the impacts of future droughts. The main objective of this study was the development of a methodology to assess drought risk for each region based on a frequency analysis of the drought severity series using the SPI index calculated over a 12-month duration. A novel concept centric on drought severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves was successfully derived for all the 70 stations using an innovative threshold approach. The methodology derived using extreme value analysis will assist in the characterization of droughts and provide useful information to policy makers and agencies developing drought response plans. Using regionalisation techniques such as Cluster analysis and modified Andrews curve, the study area was separated into homogenous groups based on rainfall characteristics. In the current Victorian application the study area was separated into six homogeneous clusters with unique signatures. A set of mean SDF curves was developed for each cluster to identify the frequency and severity of the risk of drought events for various return periods in each cluster. The advantage of developing a mean SDF curve (as a signature) for each cluster is that it assists the understanding of drought conditions for an ungauged or unknown station, the characteristics of which fit existing cluster groups. Non-homogeneous Markov Chain modelling was used to estimate the probability of different drought severity classes and drought severity class predictions 1, 2 and 3 months ahead. The non-homogeneous formulation, which considers the seasonality of precipitation, is useful for understanding the evolution of drought events and for short-term planning. Overall, this model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead well. However, predictions 2 and 3 months ahead should be used with caution. Many parts of Australia including Victoria have experienced their worst droughts on record over the last decade. With the threat of climate change potentially further exacerbating droughts in the years ahead, a clear understanding of the impact of droughts is vital. The information on the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought will be helpful for water resources managers, infrastructure planners and government policy-makers with future infrastructure planning and with the design and building of more resilient communities
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