Data management study, volume 5. Appendix I - Contract or data package overall management /MA/, scheduling /SC/, MANNING and financial /MF/ Final report

Overall management, scheduling, manpower, and financial aspects of Voyager data managemen

Application of Structured Decision Making to Wildlife Management in Montana

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Whereas there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying optimal decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic optimal decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. We illustrate the application of this process to management needs, including an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers, including in terms of knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Managers can be confident resulting decisions are most effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes and risk tolerance

Carnivore Territoriality: Simulating Economic Selection of Territories

We are developing theoretical models of territorial behavior of carnivores. This work will be useful for predicting the abundance of wolf (Canis lupus) territories in Montana and Idaho. Coupled with a patch occupancy model, it will provide more accurate estimates of abundance of wolves in each state. Ultimately, our work will also provide a better understanding of territorial behavior of a large carnivore. We are simulating the territory selection process for carnivores choosing patches on a landscape based on benefits of prey, where prey distribution ranges from overdispersed to highly clumped. Simulated carnivores will also consider hypothesized costs of patch ownership, including travel, competition, and mortality risk. In each simulation, carnivores will acquire patches for a territory as economically as possible based on these benefits and costs. Simulating various combinations of these hypothesized benefits and costs of patch ownership will provide predictions of territorial behavior. We can then compare these predictions to the territories of real wolves to determine which model is most predictive of actual wolf behavior. Starting with a model for benefits of prey and costs of travel, we found that prey distribution may influence mean size, quality, and fragmentation of simulated territories. Based on these preliminary results, we might expect differences in size or quality of territories in regions with different prey communities. Most importantly, this work provides a foundation from which we will build more complex models of territorial behavior of carnivores

Proactive Management of Pneumonia Epizootics in Bighorn Sheep in Montana—Project Update

Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for effective management of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Approximately half of the herds in Montana have suffered die-offs since the 1980s, many of which were pneumonia events. A set of models that identify risk of pneumonia and the best management decisions given that risk would be of great value for proactive management of pneumonia epizootics. Our first objective is to design and test a risk model that will help predict a herd’s risk of pneumonia. We hypothesize that various factors increase risk through pathogen exposure, pathogen spread, and disease susceptibility. Analysis of these factors comparing herds with and without recent pneumonia histories using Bayesian logistic regression will allow us to design a risk model. Our second objective is to develop a proactive decision model that incorporates estimates of pneumonia risk to help evaluate costs and benefits of alternative proactive actions appropriate to those estimates. We will use a Structured Decision Making framework, which provides a deliberative, transparent, and defensible decision-making process that is particularly valuable in complex decision-making environments such as wildlife disease management. Together the resulting risk and decision models, to be completed this year, will help managers estimate pneumonia risk and identify the best management action based on both the severity of each herd’s predicted risk and costs and benefits of competing management alternatives. Ultimately, this project will demonstrate the development and application of risk and decision models for proactive wildlife health programs in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks

The limits of inter-religious dialogue and the form of football rituals: The case of Bosnia-Herzegovina

The difficulties with interfaith dialogue are linked, at least in part, to the lack of ritual forms (consisting of rules, ceremonial idioms, liturgy, and repertoires of action) designed to unite and integrate the "meta-group "formed by the various religious communities. By means of ethnographic research conducted in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the author studied the mechanisms with which, under particular conditions, some forms of collective ritual were able to create opportunities for the re-integration of the Bosnian population, which had been profoundly divided after the terrible war of 199295. Comparing the forms of religious rituals and those of sports ritualsin particular, of football ritualsthe author develops some considerations that can be applied to the general debate about inter-religious dialogue. The comparison brings to light some of the limits and difficulties that religious institutions encounter in giving life to an interfaith dialogue that directly and concretely involves the members of different communities. © 2007 Social Compass

A Risk Model for Proactive Management of Pneumonia Epizootics in Bighorn Sheep

Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for management of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Risk factors associated with the disease are poorly understood, making pneumonia epizootics hard to predict; such epizootics are thus managed reactively rather than proactively. We developed a model that identifies risk factors and addresses biological questions about risk. Using Bayesian logistic regression with repeated measures, we found that private land, weed control using domestic sheep or goats, pneumonia history, and herd density were associated with risk of pneumonia in 43 herds in Montana that experienced 22 epizootics out of 637 herd years from 1979–2013. Within high-risk areas occupied by herds, risk increased with greater amounts of private land and use of domestic sheep or goats for weed control. Herds had >10 times greater odds of having a pneumonia epizootic if they or neighboring herds within high-risk areas had a history of pneumonia. Risk greatly increased when herds were at high density, with nearly 15 times greater odds of pneumonia compared to herds at low density. Number of federal sheep and goat allotments, proximity to nearest herds, ram:ewe ratios, normality of winter and spring precipitation, and herds with native versus mixed or reintroduced origin were not associated with increased risk. We conclude that factors associated with risk of pneumonia are complex and may not always be from the most obvious sources. The ability to identify high risk herds will help determine where to focus management efforts and what risk factors most affect each herd, facilitating more effective, proactive management

Embracing additive manufacture: implications for foot and ankle orthosis design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The design of foot and ankle orthoses is currently limited by the methods used to fabricate the devices, particularly in terms of geometric freedom and potential to include innovative new features. Additive manufacturing (AM) technologies, where objects are constructed via a series of sub-millimetre layers of a substrate material, may present the opportunity to overcome these limitations and allow novel devices to be produced that are highly personalised for the individual, both in terms of fit and functionality.</p> <p>Two novel devices, a foot orthosis (FO) designed to include adjustable elements to relieve pressure at the metatarsal heads, and an ankle foot orthosis (AFO) designed to have adjustable stiffness levels in the sagittal plane, were developed and fabricated using AM. The devices were then tested on a healthy participant to determine if the intended biomechanical modes of action were achieved.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The adjustable, pressure relieving FO was found to be able to significantly reduce pressure under the targeted metatarsal heads. The AFO was shown to have distinct effects on ankle kinematics which could be varied by adjusting the stiffness level of the device.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results presented here demonstrate the potential design freedom made available by AM, and suggest that it may allow novel personalised orthotic devices to be produced which are beyond the current state of the art.</p

Modeling Proactive Decisions to Manage Pneumonia Epizootics in Bighorn Sheep

Pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) are a major challenge for wildlife agencies due to the complexity of the disease, long-term impacts, and lack of tools to manage risk. We developed a decision model to facilitate proactive management of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep in Montana. Our decision model integrates a risk model to predict probability of pneumonia epizootics based on identified risk factors. It uses a structured decision making (SDM) approach to analyze potential decisions based on predictions from the risk model, herd-specific management objectives, and predicted consequences and trade-offs. We demonstrated our model’s use with an analysis of representative herds and analyzed the recommended decisions to understand them clearly. We learned that proactive management for each herd was expected to outperform in meeting multiple, competing management objectives compared to ongoing status quo management. Based on sensitivity analyses, we also learned that the recommended decisions were relatively robust with limited sensitivity to variations in model inputs and uncertainties; we expect this to be the case in future analyses as well. Our decision model addressed the challenges of uncertainty, risk tolerance, and the multi-objective nature of management of bighorn sheep while providing a consistent, transparent, and deliberative approach for making decisions for each herd. It is a unique tool for managing pneumonia epizootics using an accessible framework for biologists and managers. Our work also provides a case study for developing similar SDM-based decision models, particularly for other wildlife diseases, to address challenges of making complex decisions