Gradual retirement and lengthening of working life

In order for the part-time pension to make sense economically, it should extend the length of the working career. An interesting question is also whether the timing of retirement and willingness to work after retirement are related. We use data on the aspirations of individuals regarding their old-age retirement behaviour to estimate a multivariate probit model with three binary dependent variables: partial retirement, planning to continue working beyond age 63, and planning to continue working while on retirement. The model is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood. The probability of being on part-time pension increases with the length of working career, but decreases with wage. It is positively related to an indicator of chronic illness. Age has a positive effect on the probability of thinking about continuing working after age 63, which is natural since in the older age cohorts those preferring to retire early have already done that. Higher wage and private pension insurance have a negative effect on the probability of continuing to work, while the level of education increases it. Women and those having mental strain in their job are less likely to postpone retirement. The probability of continuing work while retired is difficult to predict. Only good self-assessed health seems to play an important role in this decision-making. Being on partial retirement has no positive impact on the probability of preferring to stay longer at work. This gives support to the worries that partial retirement is a tool that helps in increasing the labour force participation of the aging labour force, but at a relatively high cost.part-time retirement; retirement age; retirement expectations

Hiring older employees: Do incentives of early retirement channels matter?

We examine the impact of a Finnish reform in the 1990s that restricted the use of particular early retirement channels, unemployment pension and individual early retirement, and simultaneously changed the rules of firm size related experience rating in disability pensions. Our emphasis is on how the reforms affected the incentives of the firms to hire older employees. In a simple model we illustrate how forward-looking behaviour of firms affects the value of a new hire. Simulations with the model illustrate that although the reform in the unemployment pension in principle affected particular age groups, 53-54 year olds in the case of unemployment pension and 55-57 year olds in the case of individual early retirement, the impacts on hiring may have been felt also in other, younger, age groups. On the other hand, the effects of both reforms are likely to have varied by firm size. In a differences-indifferences-in-differences analysis with firm-level data we show that the impact of the reforms has been to increase the probability of hiring especially in the age group 51-52 and especially in the largest firms.early retirement; hiring; pension reform

Gradual Retirement and Lengthening of Working Life

In order for the part-time pension to make sense economically, it should extend the length of the working career. An interesting question is also whether the timing of retirement and willingness to work after retirement are related. We use data on the aspirations of individuals regarding their old-age retirement behaviour to estimate a multivariate probit model with three binary dependent variables: partial retirement, planning to continue working beyond age 63, and planning to continue working while on retirement. The model is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood. The probability of being on part-time pension increases with the length of working career, but decreases with wage. It is positively related to an indicator of chronic illness. Age has a positive effect on the probability of thinking about continuing working after age 63, which is natural since in the older age cohorts those preferring to retire early have already done that. Higher wage and private pension insurance have a negative effect on the probability of continuing to work, while the level of education increases it. Women and those having mental strain in their job are less likely to postpone retirement. The probability of continuing work while retired is difficult to predict. Only good self-assessed health seems to play an important role in this decision-making. Being on partial retirement has no positive impact on the probability of preferring to stay longer at work. This gives support to the worries that partial retirement is a tool that helps in increasing the labour force participation of the aging labour force, but at a relatively high cost

Hiring older employees: Do incentives of early retirement channels matter?

We examine the impact of a Finnish reform in the 1990s that restricted the use of particular early retirement channels, unemployment pension and individual early retirement, and simultaneously changed the rules of firm size related experience rating in disability pensions. Our emphasis is on how the reforms affected the incentives of the firms to hire older employees. In a simple model we illustrate how forward-looking behaviour of firms affects the value of a new hire. Simulations with the model illustrate that although the reform in the unemployment pension in principle affected particular age groups, 53-54 year olds in the case of unemployment pension and 55-57 year olds in the case of individual early retirement, the impacts on hiring may have been felt also in other, younger, age groups. On the other hand, the effects of both reforms are likely to have varied by firm size. In a differences-indifferences-in-differences analysis with firm-level data we show that the impact of the reforms has been to increase the probability of hiring especially in the age group 51-52 and especially in the largest firms

Riittääkö eläke?

Eläkeläisiä on jo yli puolitoista miljoonaa. Vaaleissa ja päätöksenteossa eläkeasiat saavatkin ansaitusti paljon huomiota. Niitä koskevilla ratkaisuilla on myös entistä suuremmat sosiaaliset ja taloudelliset vaikutukset. Eläkeläisten kasvanut joukko on aiempaa monimuotoisempi eikä sitä voi pitää yhtenäisenä väestöryhmänä. Erot näkyvät mm. vanhuuseläkkeiden ja työkyvyttömyyseläkkeiden erilaisessa kehityksessä. Veronkevennyksillä on kohennettu merkittävästi eläkeläisten toimeentuloa tällä vuosituhannella. Jatkossa pääpainon tulisi olla kohdennetuissa ratkaisuissa, ja päätöksissä tulisi huomioida myös väestöryhmien erilaiset kulutustarpeet kuten asumismenot.</p

Age segregation and hiring of older employees: low mobility revisited

We analyse age segregation in hirings and separations using linked employer-employee data from Finland in the period 1990-2004. This allows us to identify at the firm level employees in different age groups that have been hired during the previous year, and employees who have exited the firms. We analyze firm-level age segregation using segregation curves and Gini indices. The hirings of older employees have clearly been more segregated than exits or the stock of old employees even though hirings have become slightly less segregated towards the end of the period in question. At the same time age segregation in exits and stocks has increased and these trends are not sensitive to small unit bias in measurement. We also examine trends in hiring and exit rates using aggregate data. According to our results the oldest age group is again underrepresented in hirings. There is a positive upward trend in their recruitments related to the increasing cohort size, but it is much weaker than the trend in the relative share of older workers in employment. The exit rate of the older employees indicates cyclical variation while the small number of hirings seems to be insensitive to changing labour demand. We present a decomposition of employment change by age group and with that decomposition we disentangle the role of hirings and exits from factors related to demographics and cohort effects. The latter factors include the effect of the large baby boom generation entering the age group of older employees with higher employment rates than earlier cohorts. Finally, our regression analysis shows that larger firms are more likely to hire older employees, but their hiring rates are lower

Health and retirement age: Comparison of expectations and actual retirement

Aim: We examine the relationship between the subjective assessment of health status and retirement by using information on expected and actual retirement ages. Methods: Subjective data from cross-sectional surveys, conducted in Finland in 2003 and 2008, are linked to information on actual retirement age from register data from 2003-2013. Regression models are estimated for actual and expected retirement ages. Results: While the health status is positively correlated with both actual and anticipated full-time retirement age, the actual age of retirement is less sensitive to health. On average, individuals tend to retire later than they had anticipated. We examine potential biases in the health-retirement relationship. Measurement error in regard to health status biases the results downwards. Using data on observed retirement ages, omitting those who do not retire during the data period, leads to a selection problem. Ignoring the selection also leads to a downwards bias in the health - retirement age connection. As a more exogenous health variable we use health shocks, which are measured by average annual days of absence due to sickness in the follow-up period. These shocks are negatively related to retirement age in a subsample of initially healthy individuals. Conclusions: When subjective assessment of health is used for explaining retirement behavior, the effects of health can often be underestimated rather than overestimated. To lengthen working careers, attention should be given to both the ability (health) and willingness (perceptions of proper retirement age) of people to continue longer at work

Age segregation and hiring of older employees: low mobility revisited

We analyse age segregation in hirings and separations using linked employer-employee data from Finland in the period 1990-2004. This allows us to identify at the firm level employees in different age groups that have been hired during the previous year, and employees who have exited the firms. We analyze firm-level age segregation using segregation curves and Gini indices. The hirings of older employees have clearly been more segregated than exits or the stock of old employees even though hirings have become slightly less segregated towards the end of the period in question. At the same time age segregation in exits and stocks has increased and these trends are not sensitive to small unit bias in measurement. We also examine trends in hiring and exit rates using aggregate data. According to our results the oldest age group is again underrepresented in hirings. There is a positive upward trend in their recruitments related to the increasing cohort size, but it is much weaker than the trend in the relative share of older workers in employment. The exit rate of the older employees indicates cyclical variation while the small number of hirings seems to be insensitive to changing labour demand. We present a decomposition of employment change by age group and with that decomposition we disentangle the role of hirings and exits from factors related to demographics and cohort effects. The latter factors include the effect of the large baby boom generation entering the age group of older employees with higher employment rates than earlier cohorts. Finally, our regression analysis shows that larger firms are more likely to hire older employees, but their hiring rates are lower

Hiring older employees: Do incentives of early retirement channels matter?

We examine the impact of a Finnish reform in the 1990s that restricted the use of particular early retirement channels, unemployment pension and individual early retirement, and simultaneously changed the rules of firm size related experience rating in disability pensions. Our emphasis is on how the reforms affected the incentives of the firms to hire older employees. In a simple model we illustrate how forward-looking behaviour of firms affects the value of a new hire. Simulations with the model illustrate that although the reform in the unemployment pension in principle affected particular age groups, 53-54 year olds in the case of unemployment pension and 55-57 year olds in the case of individual early retirement, the impacts on hiring may have been felt also in other, younger, age groups. On the other hand, the effects of both reforms are likely to have varied by firm size. In a differences-indifferences-in-differences analysis with firm-level data we show that the impact of the reforms has been to increase the probability of hiring especially in the age group 51-52 and especially in the largest firms

Nihkeän kasvun vuosikymmenet – Ennustelaitosten pitkän aikavälin ennusteet Suomen talouskasvulle vuosille 2023–2033 ja 2033–2043

Tässä artikkelissa esitämme kokoavan yhteenvedon ja joitakin huomiota uusista Suomen taloutta koskevista pitkän aikavälin kasvuarvioista. Kysymyksessä ovat arviot, joita talousennusteita tekevät laitokset esittelivät Jyväskylän yliopiston taloustutkijoiden kesäseminaarissa kesäkuussa 2023. Arvionsa esittelivät Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitos ETLA, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, Pellervon taloustutkimus PTT, Suomen Pankki ja valtiovarainministeriö. Ennustajilla on merkittäviä näkemyseroja talouskasvun suuruudesta parin seuraavan vuosikymmenen aikana ja erot ovat myös suuremmat kuin neljä vuotta aikaisemmin laadituissa arvioissa.&nbsp; Laitoksilta pyydettiin arvioita myös T&amp;K-panostusten kehityksestä. Arvioiden mukaan T&amp;K-toiminta vilkastuu, mutta tällä ja ensi vuosikymmenelläkin jäädään jälkeen tavoitteeksi asetetusta neljän prosentin panostuksista suhteessa bruttokansantuotteeseen.&nbsp