Flood mitigation, model uncertainty and process diagnostics - Bridging the gap between operational practice and research

This dissertation is about flood mitigation, model uncertainty and process diagnostics. I develop and apply methods relevant for reservoir operation and flood forecasting, I introduce pattern matching procedures for streamflow time series and I analyze a comprehensive environmental dataset with regard to catchment runoff production

An analytical inversion method for determining regional and global emissions of greenhouse gases: Sensitivity studies and application to halocarbons

A new analytical inversion method has been developed to determine the regional and global emissions of long-lived atmospheric trace gases. It exploits in situ measurement data from three global networks and builds on backward simulations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The emission information is extracted from the observed concentration increases over a baseline that is itself objectively determined by the inversion algorithm. The method was applied to two hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a, HFC-152a) and a hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC-22) for the period January 2005 until March 2007. Detailed sensitivity studies with synthetic as well as with real measurement data were done to quantify the influence on the results of the a priori emissions and their uncertainties as well as of the observation and model errors. It was found that the global a posteriori emissions of HFC-134a, HFC-152a and HCFC-22 all increased from 2005 to 2006. Large increases (21%, 16%, 18%, respectively) from 2005 to 2006 were found for China, whereas the emission changes in North America (−9%, 23%, 17%, respectively) and Europe (11%, 11%, −4%, respectively) were mostly smaller and less systematic. For Europe, the a posteriori emissions of HFC-134a and HFC-152a were slightly higher than the a priori emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For HCFC-22, the a posteriori emissions for Europe were substantially (by almost a factor 2) higher than the a priori emissions used, which were based on HCFC consumption data reported to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Combined with the reported strongly decreasing HCFC consumption in Europe, this suggests a substantial time lag between the reported time of the HCFC-22 consumption and the actual time of the HCFC-22 emission. Conversely, in China where HCFC consumption is increasing rapidly according to the UNEP data, the a posteriori emissions are only about 40% of the a priori emissions. This reveals a substantial storage of HCFC-22 and potential for future emissions in China. Deficiencies in the geographical distribution of stations measuring halocarbons in relation to estimating regional emissions are also discussed in the paper. Applications of the inversion algorithm to other greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide or carbon dioxide are foreseen for the future

GAMA: towards a physical understanding of galaxy formation

The Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) project is the latest in a tradition of large galaxy redshift surveys, and is now underway on the 3.9m Anglo-Australian Telescope at Siding Spring Observatory. GAMA is designed to map extragalactic structures on scales of 1kpc - 1Mpc in complete detail to a redshift of z~0.2, and to trace the distribution of luminous galaxies out to z~0.5. The principal science aim is to test the standard hierarchical structure formation paradigm of Cold Dark Matter (CDM) on scales of galaxy groups, pairs, discs, bulges and bars. We will measure (1) the Dark Matter Halo Mass Function (as inferred from galaxy group velocity dispersions); (2) baryonic processes, such as star formation and galaxy formation efficiency (as derived from Galaxy Stellar Mass Functions); and (3) the evolution of galaxy merger rates (via galaxy close pairs and galaxy asymmetries). Additionally, GAMA will form the central part of a new galaxy database, which aims to contain 275,000 galaxies with multi-wavelength coverage from coordinated observations with the latest international ground- and space-based facilities: GALEX, VST, VISTA, WISE, HERSCHEL, GMRT and ASKAP. Together, these data will provide increased depth (over 2 magnitudes), doubled spatial resolution (0.7"), and significantly extended wavelength coverage (UV through Far-IR to radio) over the main SDSS spectroscopic survey for five regions, each of around 50 deg^2. This database will permit detailed investigations of the structural, chemical, and dynamical properties of all galaxy types, across all environments, and over a 5 billion year timeline.Comment: GAMA overview which appeared in the October 2009 issue of Astronomy & Geophysics, ref: Astron.Geophys. 50 (2009) 5.1

Observation of a Single-Spin Azimuthal Asymmetry in Semi-Inclusive Pion Electro-Production

Single-spin asymmetries for semi-inclusive pion production in deep-inelastic scattering have been measured for the first time. A significant target-spin asymmetry of the distribution in the azimuthal angle phi of the pion relative to the lepton scattering plane was observed for pi+ electro-production on a longitudinally polarized hydrogen target. The corresponding analyzing power in the sin(phi) moment of the cross section is 0.022 +/- 0.005 +/- 0.003. This result can be interpreted as the effect of terms in the cross section involving chiral-odd spin distribution functions in combination with a time-reversal-odd fragmentation function that is sensitive to the transverse polarization of the fragmenting quark.Comment: 5 pages of RevTex, 3 ps figures, 2 table

Measurement of Longitudinal Spin Transfer to Lambda Hyperons in Deep-Inelastic Lepton Scattering

Spin transfer in deep-inelastic Lambda electroproduction has been studied with the HERMES detector using the 27.6 GeV polarized positron beam in the HERA storage ring. For an average fractional energy transfer = 0.45, the longitudinal spin transfer from the virtual photon to the Lambda has been extracted. The spin transfer along the Lambda momentum direction is found to be 0.11 +/- 0.17 (stat) +/- 0.03 (sys); similar values are found for other possible choices for the longitudinal spin direction of the Lambda. This result is the most precise value obtained to date from deep-inelastic scattering with charged lepton beams, and is sensitive to polarized up quark fragmentation to hyperon states. The experimental result is found to be in general agreement with various models of the Lambda spin content, and is consistent with the assumption of helicity conservation in the fragmentation process.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures; new version has an expanded discussion and small format change

Single-spin Azimuthal Asymmetries in Electroproduction of Neutral Pions in Semi-inclusive Deep-inelastic Scattering

A single-spin asymmetry in the azimuthal distribution of neutral pions relative to the lepton scattering plane has been measured for the first time in deep-inelastic scattering of positrons off longitudinally polarized protons. The analysing power in the sin(phi) moment of the cross section is 0.019 +/- 0.007(stat.) +/- 0.003(syst.). This result is compared to single-spin asymmetries for charged pion production measured in the same kinematic range. The pi^0 asymmetry is of the same size as the pi^+ asymmetry and shows a similar dependence on the relevant kinematic variables. The asymmetry is described by a phenomenological calculation based on a fragmentation function that represents sensitivity to the transverse polarization of the struck quark.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, replaced to correct eprint author field, 2nd replacement to correct figure; upper limit of model predictions are corrected. No correction to data or conclusion

Measurement of the Proton Spin Structure Function g1p with a Pure Hydrogen Target

A measurement of the proton spin structure function g1p(x,Q^2) in deep-inelastic scattering is presented. The data were taken with the 27.6 GeV longitudinally polarised positron beam at HERA incident on a longitudinally polarised pure hydrogen gas target internal to the storage ring. The kinematic range is 0.021<x<0.85 and 0.8 GeV^2<Q^2<20 GeV^2. The integral Int_{0.021}^{0.85} g1p(x)dx evaluated at Q0^2 of 2.5 GeV^2 is 0.122+/-0.003(stat.)+/-0.010(syst.).Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, RevTeX late

Measurement of the Spin Asymmetry in the Photoproduction of Pairs of High-pT Hadrons at HERMES

We present a measurement of the longitudinal spin asymmetry A_|| in photoproduction of pairs of hadrons with high transverse momentum p_T. Data were accumulated by the HERMES experiment using a 27.5 GeV polarized positron beam and a polarized hydrogen target internal to the HERA storage ring. For h+h- pairs with p_T^h_1 > 1.5 GeV/c and p_T^h_2 > 1.0 GeV/c, the measured asymmetry is A_|| = -0.28 +/- 0.12 (stat.) +/- 0.02 (syst.). This negative value is in contrast to the positive asymmetries typically measured in deep inelastic scattering from protons, and is interpreted to arise from a positive gluon polarization.Comment: 5 pages (latex), 4 figures (eps

Exclusive Leptoproduction of rho^0 Mesons from Hydrogen at Intermediate Virtual Photon Energies

Measurements of the cross section for exclusive virtual-photoproduction of rho^0 mesons from hydrogen are reported. The data were collected by the HERMES experiment using 27.5 GeV positrons incident on a hydrogen gas target in the HERA storage ring. The invariant mass W of the photon-nucleon system ranges from 4.0 to 6.0 GeV, while the negative squared four-momentum Q^2 of the virtual photon varies from 0.7 to 5.0 GeV^2. The present data together with most of the previous data at W > 4 GeV are well described by a model that infers the W-dependence of the cross section from the dependence on the Bjorken scaling variable x of the unpolarized structure function for deep-inelastic scattering. In addition, a model calculation based on Off-Forward Parton Distributions gives a fairly good account of the longitudinal component of the rho^0 production cross section for Q^2 > 2 GeV^2.Comment: 10 pages, 6 embedded figures, LaTeX for SVJour(epj) document class. Revisions: curves added to Fig. 1, several clarifications added to tex