Development and validation of a prediction rule for benefit and harm of dual antiplatelet therapy beyond 1 year after percutaneous coronary intervention.

IMPORTANCE: Dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) reduces ischemia but increases bleeding. OBJECTIVE: To develop a clinical decision tool to identify patients expected to derive benefit vs harm from continuing thienopyridine beyond 1 year after PCI. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Among 11,648 randomized DAPT Study patients from 11 countries (August 2009-May 2014), a prediction rule was derived stratifying patients into groups to distinguish ischemic and bleeding risk 12 to 30 months after PCI. Validation was internal via bootstrap resampling and external among 8136 patients from 36 countries randomized in the PROTECT trial (June 2007-July 2014). EXPOSURES: Twelve months of open-label thienopyridine plus aspirin, then randomized to 18 months of continued thienopyridine plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Ischemia (myocardial infarction or stent thrombosis) and bleeding (moderate or severe) 12 to 30 months after PCI. RESULTS: Among DAPT Study patients (derivation cohort; mean age, 61.3 years; women, 25.1%), ischemia occurred in 348 patients (3.0%) and bleeding in 215 (1.8%). Derivation cohort models predicting ischemia and bleeding had c statistics of 0.70 and 0.68, respectively. The prediction rule assigned 1 point each for myocardial infarction at presentation, prior myocardial infarction or PCI, diabetes, stent diameter less than 3 mm, smoking, and paclitaxel-eluting stent; 2 points each for history of congestive heart failure/low ejection fraction and vein graft intervention; -1 point for age 65 to younger than 75 years; and -2 points for age 75 years or older. Among the high score group (score ≥2, n = 5917), continued thienopyridine vs placebo was associated with reduced ischemic events (2.7% vs 5.7%; risk difference [RD], -3.0% [95% CI, -4.1% to -2.0%], P < .001) compared with the low score group (score <2, n = 5731; 1.7% vs 2.3%; RD, -0.7% [95% CI, -1.4% to 0.09%], P = .07; interaction P < .001). Conversely, continued thienopyridine was associated with smaller increases in bleeding among the high score group (1.8% vs 1.4%; RD, 0.4% [95% CI, -0.3% to 1.0%], P = .26) compared with the low score group (3.0% vs 1.4%; RD, 1.5% [95% CI, 0.8% to 2.3%], P < .001; interaction P = .02). Among PROTECT patients (validation cohort; mean age, 62 years; women, 23.7%), ischemia occurred in 79 patients (1.0%) and bleeding in 37 (0.5%), with a c statistic of 0.64 for ischemia and 0.64 for bleeding. In this cohort, the high-score patients (n = 2848) had increased ischemic events compared with the low-score patients and no significant difference in bleeding. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Among patients not sustaining major bleeding or ischemic events 1 year after PCI, a prediction rule assessing late ischemic and bleeding risks to inform dual antiplatelet therapy duration showed modest accuracy in derivation and validation cohorts. This rule requires further prospective evaluation to assess potential effects on patient care, as well as validation in other cohorts. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00977938

sj-docx-1-vmj-10.1177_1358863X231220609 – Supplemental material for Advanced Raynaud’s disease: A single institution and nationwide cohort analysis

Supplemental material, sj-docx-1-vmj-10.1177_1358863X231220609 for Advanced Raynaud’s disease: A single institution and nationwide cohort analysis by Milan Kaushik, Sebastian E Beyer, Jennifer Nashel, Cyrus Kholdani, Arriyan S Dowlatshahi, Eric A Secemsky and Brett J Carroll in Vascular Medicine</p

Cardiovascular and Limb Events Following Endovascular Revascularization Among Patients ≥65 Years Old: An American College of Cardiology PVI Registry Analysis

Background We aimed to characterize the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular and limb events (MACE and MALE) among patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) undergoing peripheral vascular intervention (PVI), as well as associated factors in patients with chronic limb threatening ischemia (CLTI). Methods and Results Patients undergoing PVI in the American College of Cardiology’s (ACC) National Cardiovascular Data Registry’s PVI Registry who could be linked to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data were included. The primary outcomes were MACE, MALE, and readmission within 1 month and 1 year following index CLTI‐PVI or non‐CLTI‐PVI. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify factors associated with the development of the primary outcomes among patients undergoing CLTI‐PVI. There were 1758 (49.7%) patients undergoing CLTI‐PVI and 1779 (50.3%) undergoing non‐CLTI‐PVI. By 1 year, MACE occurred in 29.5% of patients with CLTI (n=519), and MALE occurred in 34.0% of patients with CLTI (n=598). By 1 year, MACE occurred in 8.2% of patients with non‐CLTI (n=146), and MALE occurred in 26.1% of patients with non‐CLTI (n=465). Predictors of MACE at 1 year in CLTI‐PVI included end‐stage renal disease on hemodialysis, congestive heart failure, prior CABG, and severe lung disease. Predictors of MALE at 1 year in CLTI‐PVI included treatment of a prior bypass graft, profunda femoral artery treatment, end‐stage renal disease on hemodialysis, and treatment of a previously treated lesion. Conclusions Patients ≥65 years old undergoing PVI experience high rates of MACE and MALE. A range of modifiable and non‐modifiable patient factors, procedural characteristics, and medications are associated with the occurrence of MACE and MALE following CLTI‐PVI

Development and Validation of a Prediction Rule for Benefit and Harm of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Beyond 1 Year After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

IMPORTANCE: Dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) reduces ischemia but increases bleeding. OBJECTIVE: To develop a clinical decision tool to identify patients expected to derive benefit vs harm from continuing thienopyridine beyond 1 year after PCI. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Among 11,648 randomized DAPT Study patients from 11 countries (August 2009-May 2014), a prediction rule was derived stratifying patients into groups to distinguish ischemic and bleeding risk 12 to 30 months after PCI. Validation was internal via bootstrap resampling and external among 8136 patients from 36 countries randomized in the PROTECT trial (June 2007-July 2014). EXPOSURES: Twelve months of open-label thienopyridine plus aspirin, then randomized to 18 months of continued thienopyridine plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Ischemia (myocardial infarction or stent thrombosis) and bleeding (moderate or severe) 12 to 30 months after PCI. RESULTS: Among DAPT Study patients (derivation cohort; mean age, 61.3 years; women, 25.1%), ischemia occurred in 348 patients (3.0%) and bleeding in 215 (1.8%). Derivation cohort models predicting ischemia and bleeding had c statistics of 0.70 and 0.68, respectively. The prediction rule assigned 1 point each for myocardial infarction at presentation, prior myocardial infarction or PCI, diabetes, stent diameter less than 3 mm, smoking, and paclitaxel-eluting stent; 2 points each for history of congestive heart failure/low ejection fraction and vein graft intervention; -1 point for age 65 to younger than 75 years; and -2 points for age 75 years or older. Among the high score group (score ≥2, n = 5917), continued thienopyridine vs placebo was associated with reduced ischemic events (2.7% vs 5.7%; risk difference [RD], -3.0% [95% CI, -4.1% to -2.0%], P < .001) compared with the low score group (score <2, n = 5731; 1.7% vs 2.3%; RD, -0.7% [95% CI, -1.4% to 0.09%], P = .07; interaction P < .001). Conversely, continued thienopyridine was associated with smaller increases in bleeding among the high score group (1.8% vs 1.4%; RD, 0.4% [95% CI, -0.3% to 1.0%], P = .26) compared with the low score group (3.0% vs 1.4%; RD, 1.5% [95% CI, 0.8% to 2.3%], P < .001; interaction P = .02). Among PROTECT patients (validation cohort; mean age, 62 years; women, 23.7%), ischemia occurred in 79 patients (1.0%) and bleeding in 37 (0.5%), with a c statistic of 0.64 for ischemia and 0.64 for bleeding. In this cohort, the high-score patients (n = 2848) had increased ischemic events compared with the low-score patients and no significant difference in bleeding. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Among patients not sustaining major bleeding or ischemic events 1 year after PCI, a prediction rule assessing late ischemic and bleeding risks to inform dual antiplatelet therapy duration showed modest accuracy in derivation and validation cohorts. This rule requires further prospective evaluation to assess potential effects on patient care, as well as validation in other cohorts. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00977938