Time and money: an empirical explanation of behaviour in the context of travel-mode choice with the German Microcensus

Whereas variance in preferences is a central explanation for human behaviour in the social sciences, economists traditionally avoid using preferences to explain behaviour. Rather, change in behaviour or different kinds of behaviour are explained solely by differences in the economic restrictions imposed on an individual. Whereas restrictions have been analysed as monetary constraints in traditional economics, Gary Becker has broadened this term. In his work, he tried to integrate 'time' - the non-monetary restriction - into the economic constraints. In our paper we test empirically the effects of monetary and time restrictions on the travel-mode choice of a representative sample of the German population. We do this by means of testing some hypotheses from Becker's work on microcensus data from Germany. These data include the following variables: travel-mode choice, distance of travel, time of travel, as well as some additional socioeconomic characteristics. Results of introducing these additional socioeconomic variables will also raise the question whether it is really true that only monetary and time costs matter

Zeit und Geld: empirische Verhaltenserklärung mittels Restriktionen am Beispiel der Verkehrsmittelwahl

'Während 'Präferenzen' im Kontext sozialwissenschaftlicher Modelle ein zentrales Konstrukt zur Erklärung menschlichen Verhaltens darstellt, bemühen sich Ökonomen, Verhalten möglichst ohne Bezug auf dieses Konstrukt zu erklären. Im Mittelpunkt ökonomischer Analysen steht hingegen der Versuch, Verhaltensänderungen bzw. Unterschiede im Verhalten auf Veränderungen bzw. Unterschiede in externen Restriktionen zurückzuführen. Während die traditionelle Ökonomie sich dabei vor allem auf die Analyse monetärer Restriktionen konzentriert, hat Gerry Becker den ökonomichen Ansatz um die nicht-monetäre Restriktion 'Zeit' erweitert. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird versucht, aus Beckers Ansatz empirisch testbare Hypothesen abzuleiten, wie die Restriktionen 'Geld' und besonders 'Zeit' die individuelle Verkehrsmittelwahl determinieren. Diese Hypothesen werden an Daten aus einer empirischen Untersuchung getestet, in der für eine spezifische Fahrstrecke die mit der Bus- bzw. der PKW-Nutzung verbundenen Zeit- und Geldkosten erhoben wurden. Wie aus Beckers Ansatz theoretisch abgeleitet, übt die wahrgenommene Zeitkostendifferenz der Bus- oder PKW-Nutzung einen deutlichen Einfluß auf die tatsächliche Bus- bzw. PKW-Nutzung aus, während der Einfluß der wahrgenommenen Geldkostendifferenz statistisch nicht signifikant ist.' (Autorenreferat)'In sociological or socialpsychological models 'preferences' are used as a central construct explaining human behavior, whereas economic analysis are trying to explain behavior without reference to this construct. The economic-approach tries to explain behavioral changes and differences by changes and differences in external restrictions. While the traditional consumption-theory analyses mainly the effect of monetary restriction, Gerry Becker has enlarged the economic approach by the non-monetary restriction 'time'. After a short description of Becker's approach this article tries to use Becker's approach deriving hypotheses how the restrictions 'money' and 'time' determine the individual transportation mode choice. To test these hypotheses empirically a field-study was conducted, in which for a specific route the time- and monetary-costs are raised, connected with the usage of the transportation means 'bus' and 'car'. As expected the results of the data-analysis show that the perceived differences of the time-costs between the transportation means 'bus' and 'car' exert a significant impact onto the actual usage of the bus or car, while the impact of the perceived differences of the monetary-costs are insigificant.' (author's abstract)

Langfrist-Prognose von Performance-Indizes: Vergleich einiger Verfahren

Langfrist-Prognosen sind typischerweise problematischer als Kurzfrist-Prognosen. Im Kapitalmarktkontext ist die Sachlage jedoch umgekehrt, da verlässliche Kurzfrist-Prognosen durch Arbitrageure sofort zunichte gemacht würden. Ex ante ist der Performance-Index am Prognosehorizont eine extrem rechtsschief verteilte Zufallsvariable. Prognosen, die auf dessen Modalwert abzielen, sind daher viel zu pessimistisch. Prognosen, die auf den Erwartungswert abzielen, sind dagegen zu optimistisch. Von den drei prominenten Lagemaßen ist nur der Median in der Lage, als Basis für eine verlässliche Prognose zu dienen. Es werden einige Praktiker-Verfahren untereinander und mit einem neuen Prognoseverfahren verglichen, welches auf der erwartungstreuen Schätzung des Medians beruht. Zur Illustration der Verfahren und der resultierenden Prognosen werden Daten des DAX bis 2022 verwendet. Es zeigt sich unter anderem, dass der erwartungstreue Median-Schätzer bessere Prognosen als das beste ‚Praktiker-Verfahren‘ liefert

Bicycle-friendly cities: The relevance of urban form and infrastructure

This report presents the results of a study with the overall aim of analysing the extent to which urbanform and the design of the transport system can explain the level of cycling. The analysis is based onpublished studies of the relationship between cycling and various properties of the physical urbanenvironment. A statistical meta-analysis, of aggregated variables, was carried out based on dataextraction from relevant published studies as well as an analysis of the conclusions drawn in a number ofreview articles. The report concludes with an analysis of what options and grounds exist to provideplanners with guidelines to encourage cycling in urban areas.The analysis showed that all aggregate variables that were included in the statistical meta-analysis had asignificant impact on bicycle use. The main contribution of this work is in providing a quantitativemeasure of their effects. Distance was the most important factor associated with levels of bicycle use andthe association was negative (r = -0.61 to -0.40), as would be expected. The other variables included inthe analysis were positively associated with bicycle use. Land use, which was operationalised asmeasures of density and accessibility, was the second most important variable (r = +0.03 to +0.47). Othervariables in the analysis included the transport system (r = +0.11 to +0.29), the urban environment(r = 0.12 to 0.27), and safety (r = 0.08 to 0.21). The transport system variable was represented bymeasures of the street and bicycle network density, and the presence and quality of infrastructure forcycling. The urban environment covered various properties such as type of housing and neighborhood,but also aesthetic qualities and attractiveness, and safety included both safety and security. The findingsagreed well with the results from the analysis of conclusions in published reviews addressing theseissues.In practical planning, the relative importance of the identified variables, and factors included, need to beevaluated in each specific case, since current conditions have a large influence on what effect can beexpected from different measures. Deficits in one area can not be compensated with measures in another.Instead, comprehensive programs and interventions in urban and transport planning are highly importantto motivate increased bicycle use. Such an approach, however, requires a common understanding andexpectations of city and traffic development in policy and planning, involving both citizens and otherstakeholders

Evaluation des Unfallpräventionsprogrammes P.A.R.T.Y.

EVALUATION DES UNFALLPRÄVENTIONSPROGRAMMES P.A.R.T.Y. Evaluation des Unfallpräventionsprogrammes P.A.R.T.Y. / Köhler, Michael (Rights reserved) ( -

Prediction model to estimate presence of coronary artery disease: retrospective pooled analysis of existing cohorts

Objectives To develop prediction models that better estimate the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations

Behaviour theory and soft transport policy measures

The aim is to propose a theoretical grounding of soft transport policy measures that aim at promoting voluntary reduction of car use. A general conceptual framework is first presented to clarify how hard and soft transport policy measures impact on car-use reduction. Two different behavioural theories that have been used to account for car use and car-use reduction are then integrated in a self-regulation theory that identifies four stages of the process of voluntarily changing car use: setting a car-use reduction goal, forming a plan for achieving the goal, initiating and executing the plan, and evaluating the outcome of the plan execution. A number of techniques are described that facilitate the different stages of the process of voluntary car-use reduction and which should be used in personalized travel planning programs