Robustness of approaches to ROC curve modeling under misspecification of the underlying probability model

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a tool of particular use in disease status classification with a continuous medical test (marker). A variety of statistical regression models have been proposed for the comparison of ROC curves for different markers across covariate groups. A full parametric modeling of the marker distribution has been generally found to be overly reliant on the strong parametric assumptions. Pepe (2003) has instead developed parametric models for the ROC curve that induce a semi-parametric model for the marker distributions. The estimating equations proposed for use in these ROC-GLM models may differ from commonly used estimating equations in those same probability models. In this paper, we investigate the analysis of the power ROC curve when based on the parametric exponential model and the broader semi-parametric proportional hazards probability model. In the case of the latter, we consider estimating equations derived from the usual partial likelihood methods in time-to-event analyses and the ROC-GLM approach of Pepe, et al. In exploring the robustness of these ROC analysis approaches to violations of the distributional assumptions, we find that the ROC-GLM estimating equation provides an extra measure of robustness when compared to the Cox proportional hazards estimating equation

Reduced Intensity Conditioning Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation for Adults with Relapsed and Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma: A Single Center Retrospective Analysis in the Rituximab Era

n/

Nonce-Disrespecting Adversaries: Practical Forgery Attacks on GCM in TLS

We investigate nonce reuse issues with the GCM block cipher mode as used in TLS and focus in particular on AES-GCM, the most widely deployed variant. With an Internet-wide scan we identified 184 HTTPS servers repeating nonces, which fully breaks the authenticity of the connections. Affected servers include large corporations, financial institutions, and a credit card company. We present a proof of concept of our attack allowing to violate the authenticity of affected HTTPS connections which in turn can be utilized to inject seemingly valid content into encrypted sessions. Furthermore we discovered over 70,000 HTTPS servers using random nonces, which puts them at risk of nonce reuse if a large amount of data is sent over the same connection

BFORE: The B-mode Foreground Experiment

The B-mode Foreground Experiment (BFORE) is a proposed NASA balloon project designed to make optimal use of the sub-orbital platform by concentrating on three dust foreground bands (270, 350, and 600 GHz) that complement ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) programs. BFORE will survey ~1/4 of the sky with 1.7 - 3.7 arcminute resolution, enabling precise characterization of the Galactic dust that now limits constraints on inflation from CMB B-mode polarization measurements. In addition, BFORE's combination of frequency coverage, large survey area, and angular resolution enables science far beyond the critical goal of measuring foregrounds. BFORE will constrain the velocities of thousands of galaxy clusters, provide a new window on the cosmic infrared background, and probe magnetic fields in the interstellar medium. We review the BFORE science case, timeline, and instrument design, which is based on a compact off-axis telescope coupled to >10,000 superconducting detectors.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, conference proceedings published in Journal of Low Temperature Physic

“No Wash” Albumin-Dextran Dilution for Double-Unit Cord Blood Transplantation is Safe with High Rates of Sustained Donor Engraftment

AbstractWashing cord blood (CB) grafts involves product manipulation and may result in cell loss. We investigated double-unit CB transplantation (CBT) using red blood cell (RBC)–depleted units diluted with albumin-dextran in patients with hematologic malignancies. One-hundred thirty-six patients (median age, 43 years; range, 4 to 71; median weight, 69 kilograms (kg); range, 24 to 111) underwent transplantation with a 4/6 to 6/6 HLA-matched graft. Patients ≤ 20 kg were excluded, as they only received washed units. Units were diluted a median of 8 fold to a median volume of 200 mL/unit. The median infused total nucleated cell doses were 2.7 (larger unit) and 2.0 (smaller unit) x 107/kg, respectively, and the median post-thaw recovery was 86%. Units were infused consecutively (median, 45 minutes/unit). While only 17 patients (13%) had no infusion reactions, reactions in the remaining 119 patients were almost exclusively mild-moderate (by CTCAE v4 criteria 12 grade 1, 43 grade 2, 63 grade 3) with only 1 patient (< 1%) having a severe (grade 4) reaction. Moreover, most were easily treated. Grade 2 to 3 hypertension was the most common in 101 (74%) patients. The cumulative incidence of sustained donor-derived neutrophil engraftment was high: 95% in myeloablative and 94% in nonmyeloablative CBT recipients. With appropriate supportive care, double-unit CBT with RBC-depleted grafts infused after albumin-dextran dilution is safe with high rates of engraftment in patients > 20 kg

Confirming the Primarily Smooth Structure of the Vega Debris Disk at Millimeter Wavelengths

Clumpy structure in the debris disk around Vega has been previously reported at millimeter wavelengths and attributed to concentrations of dust grains trapped in resonances with an unseen planet. However, recent imaging at similar wavelengths with higher sensitivity has disputed the observed structure. We present three new millimeter wavelength observations that help to resolve the puzzling and contradictory observations. We have observed the Vega system with the Submillimeter Array (SMA) at a wavelength of 880 μm and an angular resolution of 5"; with the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy (CARMA) at a wavelength of 1.3 mm and an angular resolution of 5"; and with the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) at a wavelength of 3.3 mm and angular resolution of 10". Despite high sensitivity and short baselines, we do not detect the Vega debris disk in either of the interferometric data sets (SMA and CARMA), which should be sensitive at high significance to clumpy structure based on previously reported observations. We obtain a marginal (3σ) detection of disk emission in the GBT data; the spatial distribution of the emission is not well constrained.We analyze the observations in the context of several different models, demonstrating that the observations are consistent with a smooth, broad, axisymmetric disk with inner radius 20–100 AU and width ≾50 AU. The interferometric data require that at least half of the 860 μm emission detected by previous single-dish observations with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope be distributed axisymmetrically, ruling out strong contributions from flux concentrations on spatial scales of ≾100 AU. These observations support recent results from the Plateau de Bure Interferometer indicating that previous detections of clumpy structure in the Vega debris disk were spurious