Infrastructure Interdependencies in Extreme Heat Emergencies [video]

NPS Defense Energy SeminarThe city of Phoenix AZ set new all-time record-breaking temperatures at 119F during June 2017. Although unprecedented, the nearly week-long heat wave passed without extraordinary incident. Some regional flights were grounded, as smaller jets were unable to operate, and new all-time highs were established in electrical power demand, but adverse health effects failed to match the temperature extremes, as water, power, roadway transportation, communication, emergency response and other infrastructure systems continued reliable operation. By contrast, deadly heat waves in less extreme locations, such as Chicago in 1995 and northern Europe in 2003, have killed tens of thousands. This presentation describes pathways of disruption in coupled energy, water, and transportation systems that, if experienced during an extreme heat event, would be catastrophic for the City of Phoenix. Results emphasize the need for enhanced adaptability and flexibility of existing infrastructure systems that account for climate non-stationarity and infrastructure interdependencies. Mitigating vulnerability will require innovative solutions to protect populations from extreme heat, even in the case of massive and cascading infrastructure failures

Predicting tipping points in mutualistic networks through dimension reduction

This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1714958115/-/DCSupplemental.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Optimization and resilience of complex supply-demand networks

Acknowledgments This work was supported by NSF under Grant No. 1441352. SPZ and ZGH were supported by NSF of China under Grants No. 11135001 and No. 11275003. ZGH thanks Prof Liang Huang and Xin-Jian Xu for helpful discussions.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Extreme events in multilayer, interdependent complex networks and control

This work was supported by NSF under Grant No. 1441352.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Being Prepared to be Unprepared: Meaning Making is Critical for the Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems

Infrastructure is essential to provision of public health, safety, and well-being. Yet, even critical infrastructure systems cannot be designed, constructed, and operated to be robust to the myriad of surprising hazards they are likely to be subject to. As such, there has been increasing emphasis in Federal policy on enhancing infrastructure resilience. Nonetheless, existing research on infrastructure systems often overlooks the role of individual decision-making and team dynamics under the conditions of high ambiguity and uncertainty typically associated with surprise. Although evidence suggests that human factors correlating with resilience and adaptive capacity emerge in later stages of psychological development, there is an acute need for new knowledge about the human capacity to comprehend increasing levels of complexity in the context of rapidly evolving technological, ecological, and social stress conditions. Sometimes, it is this developmental capacity for meaning-making that is the difference between adaptive and maladaptive response. Thus, without a better understanding of the human capacity to develop and assign meaning to complex systems, unquestioned misconceptions about the human role may prevail. In this work, we examine the dynamic relationships between human and technological systems from a developmental perspective. We argue that knowledge of resilient human development can improve system resilience by aligning roles and responsibilities with the developmental capacities of individuals and groups responsible for the design, operation, and management of critical infrastructures. Taking a holistic approach that draws on both psychology and resilience engineering literature facilitates construction of an integrated model that lends itself to empirical verification of future research.</p

Polarizing Bubble Collisions

We predict the polarization of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons that results from a cosmic bubble collision. The polarization is purely E-mode, symmetric around the axis pointing towards the collision bubble, and has several salient features in its radial dependence that can help distinguish it from a more conventional explanation for unusually cold or hot features in the CMB sky. The anomalous "cold spot" detected by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) satellite is a candidate for a feature produced by such a collision, and the Planck satellite and other proposed surveys will measure the polarization on it in the near future. The detection of such a collision would provide compelling evidence for the string theory landscape.Comment: Published version. 15 pages, 8 figure