Mapping Brucellosis Increases Relative to Elk Density using Hierarchical Bayesian Models

The relationship between host density and parasite transmission is central to the effectiveness of many management strategies. We applied hierarchical Bayesian methods to an 18-yr dataset on elk (Cervus elaphus) brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) and found that increases in brucellosis seroprevalence were strongly correlated with elk densities. Elk that were densely aggregated on supplemental feeding grounds had higher seroprevalence in 1991, but by 2008 many areas distant from the feeding grounds were of comparable seroprevalence. Thus, brucellosis appears to be expanding its range into areas of higher elk density, which is likely to further complicate the United States brucellosis eradication program. The data could not differentiate among linear and non-linear effects of host density, which is a critical area where research can inform management actions. This study is an example of how the dynamics of host populations can affect their ability to serve as disease reservoirs

Adaptive Management of Winter Elk Feedgrounds in Western Wyoming as a Long-Term Strategy for Reducing Brucellosis in Elk While Maintaining Separation from Cattle: A Work in Progress

Brucellosis is of large economic and management concern in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) where wildlife remain the last reservoir of the disease in the United States. Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) management of brucellosis has focused on separation of elk (Cervus elaphus) and cattle (Bos taurus) through operation of 22 winter feedgrounds, which originated to prevent elk starvation and elk damage. Although feedgrounds perpetuate the spread of brucellosis among elk, they are largely maintained to prevent disease spillover to cattle. Despite efforts, recent brucellosis occurrences in Wyoming cattle during 2004-2008 were linked to feedground elk. Therefore, numerous research projects conducted during 2006-2008 were aimed at developing feedground management strategies that lead to long-term brucellosis reductions in elk. Major research results lead the WGFD to development of the Target Feedground Project, which manipulates feeding management to reduce brucellosis in elk. This project was first implemented in winter 2007-08 and is conducted exclusively at target feedgrounds, where perceived elk-cattle commingling risk is low and there is a high potential for elk to free range in late winter/early spring. The first objective is to reduce elk densities while on feedgrounds by using low-density feeding. The second objective is to reduce duration of high elk concentration by manipulating end-feeding season date through systematic reductions in hay rations in late winter and early spring, with the goal of ending an average of 3-4 weeks earlier than long-term means. Advantages of this project, if successful, are sustainable reductions in elk brucellosis and decreased risk to cattle, lower elk feeding costs, and continued operation of feedgrounds to minimize elk-cattle commingling, elk damage, and sustain elk numbers that meet public expectation. Disadvantages are that the project is not suitable for all feedgrounds and elk on target feedgrounds remain susceptible to new diseases that may arise

Parsing the Effects of Demography, Climate and Management on Recurrent Brucellosis Outbreaks in Elk

Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well‐being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography and management control programmes on disease dynamics. Using \u3e20 years of serologic, demographic and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free‐ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. We evaluated the effectiveness of test‐and‐slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test‐and‐slaughter temporarily reduced herd‐level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. Synthesis and applications. Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer‐term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns

Elk Contact Patterns and Potential Disease Transmission

Understanding the drivers of contact rates among individuals is critical to understanding disease dynamics and implementing targeted control measures. We studied the interaction patterns of 149 female elk (Cervus elaphus) distributed across five different regions of western Wyoming over three years, defining a contact as an approach within one body length (~2m). Using hierarchical models that account for correlations within individuals, pairs and groups, we found that pairwise contact rates within a group declined by a factor of three as group sizes increased 30-fold. Meanwhile, per capita contact rates increased with group size due to the increasing number of potential pairs. We found similar patterns for the duration of contacts. Supplemental feeding of elk had a limited impact on pairwise interaction rates and durations, but increased per capita rates more than two times higher. Variation in contact patterns were driven more by environmental factors such as group size than either individual or pairwise differences. Female elk in this region fall between the expectation of contact rates that linearly increase with group size (as assumed by pseudo-mass action models of disease transmission) or are constant with changes in group size (as assumed by frequency dependent transmission models). Our statistical approach decomposes the variation in contact rate into individual, dyadic, and environmental effects, which provides insight into those factors that are important for effective disease control programs

Winter Feeding of Elk in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and its Effects on Disease Dynamics

Providing food to wildlife during periods when natural food is limited results in aggregations that may facilitate disease transmission. This is exemplified in western Wyoming where institutional feeding over the past century has aimed to mitigate wildlife–livestock conflict and minimize winter mortality of elk (Cervus canadensis). Here we review research across 23 winter feedgrounds where the most studied disease is brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus. Traditional veterinary practices (vaccination, test-and-slaughter) have thus far been unable to control this disease in elk, which can spill over to cattle. Current disease-reduction efforts are being guided by ecological research on elk movement and density, reproduction, stress, co-infections and scavengers. Given the right tools, feedgrounds could provide opportunities for adaptive management of brucellosis through regular animal testing and population-level manipulations. Our analyses of several such manipulations highlight the value of a research–management partnership guided by hypothesis testing, despite the constraints of the sociopolitical environment. However, brucellosis is now spreading in unfed elk herds, while other diseases (e.g. chronic wasting disease) are of increasing concern at feedgrounds. Therefore experimental closures of feedgrounds, reduced feeding and lower elk populations merit consideration

Map of study area and number of brucellosis-affected livestock herds (1990–2014) per hunt district (HD).

<p>HDs in the study area overlap with the designated surveillance area (DSA) for brucellosis in livestock. YNP = Yellowstone National Park; GTNP = Grand Teton National Park. Inset: Map of contiguous United States and study area.</p

Shifting brucellosis risk in livestock coincides with spreading seroprevalence in elk

<div><p>Tracking and preventing the spillover of disease from wildlife to livestock can be difficult when rare outbreaks occur across large landscapes. In these cases, broad scale ecological studies could help identify risk factors and patterns of risk to inform management and reduce incidence of disease. Between 2002 and 2014, 21 livestock herds in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) were affected by brucellosis, a bacterial disease caused by <i>Brucella abortus</i>, while no affected herds were detected between 1990 and 2001. Using a Bayesian analysis, we examined several ecological covariates that may be associated with affected livestock herds across the region. We showed that livestock risk has been increasing over time and expanding outward from the historical nexus of brucellosis in wild elk on Wyoming’s feeding grounds where elk are supplementally fed during the winter. Although elk were the presumed source of cattle infections, occurrences of affected livestock herds were only weakly associated with the density of seropositive elk across the GYA. However, the shift in livestock risk did coincide with recent increases in brucellosis seroprevalence in unfed elk populations. As increasing brucellosis in unfed elk likely stemmed from high levels of the disease in fed elk, disease-related costs of feeding elk have probably been incurred across the entire GYA, rather than solely around the feeding grounds. Our results suggest that focused disease mitigation in areas where seroprevalence in unfed elk is high could reduce the spillover of brucellosis to livestock. We also highlight the need to better understand the epidemiology of spillover events with detailed histories of disease testing, calving, and movement of infected livestock. Finally, we recommend using case-control studies to investigate local factors important to livestock risk.</p></div

Interacting effects on the probability of a brucellosis-affected hunt district (HD).

<p>(A) elk brucellosis seroprevalence × fed, and (B) year × fed. Note y axes differ among panels. Black and blue lines (mean) and shaded areas (95% credible intervals) describe the estimated relationships for fed and unfed elk, respectively. Probability of an Affected HD = probability of an HD having brucellosis-affected livestock detected. Fed = elk feeding ground present.</p

Estimated and empirical brucellosis seroprevalence in elk per elk hunt district (HD).

<p>Maps depict estimated brucellosis seroprevalence in elk in 1990 and 2014 for HDs in the study area. YNP = Yellowstone National Park; GTNP = Grand Teton National Park. Inset: Map of contiguous United States and study area. Small panels on the right depict modeled (grey) and empirical (blue) seroprevalence (y axis; range from 0 to 1) over time (x axis; range from 1990 to 2014) from a subset of the study area. Arrows show which elk hunt district corresponds to each panel. Blue lines are 95% binomial confidence intervals, and grey shaded regions are 95% credible intervals.</p