Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in Northern mid- to high-latitudes

Copyright © 2014 Nature Publishing GroupChanges in climate variability are arguably more important for society and ecosystems than changes in mean climate, especially if they translate into altered extremes [1, 2, 3]. There is a common perception and growing concern that human-induced climate change will lead to more volatile and extreme weather [4]. Certain types of extreme weather have increased in frequency and/or severity [5, 6, 7], in part because of a shift in mean climate but also because of changing variability [1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10]. In spite of mean climate warming, an ostensibly large number of high-impact cold extremes have occurred in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes over the past decade [11]. One explanation is that Arctic amplification—the greater warming of the Arctic compared with lower latitudes [12] associated with diminishing sea ice and snow cover—is altering the polar jet stream and increasing temperature variability [13, 14, 15, 16]. This study shows, however, that subseasonal cold-season temperature variability has significantly decreased over the mid- to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. This is partly because northerly winds and associated cold days are warming more rapidly than southerly winds and warm days, and so Arctic amplification acts to reduce subseasonal temperature variance. Previous hypotheses linking Arctic amplification to increased weather extremes invoke dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation [11, 13, 14, 15, 16], which are hard to detect in present observations [17, 18] and highly uncertain in the future [19, 20]. In contrast, decreases in subseasonal cold-season temperature variability, in accordance with the mechanism proposed here, are detectable in the observational record and are highly robust in twenty-first-century climate model simulations.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Half-century air temperature change above Antarctica: Observed trends and spatial reconstructions

Copyright © 2012 American Geophysical UnionThis study provides a comprehensive analysis of observed 50-year (1961–2010) seasonal air temperature trends from radiosonde ascents above Antarctica. Comparisons between multiple radiosonde data sets (homogenized in different ways) at each of eight Antarctic stations reveals substantial differences in the upper-air temperature trend magnitudes and their statistical significance between data sets. However, when considering the average of these data sets at each station, or averaging across all stations, a robust vertical profile of half-century temperature change emerges, characterized by mid-tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Statistically significant Multistation-mean 500 hPa warming (0.1 to 0.2°C decade−1) is found in all seasons, whereas the lower stratospheric cooling has been manifest primarily in austral spring and summer, but with larger magnitudes (−1.0 to −2.0°C decade−1). We undertake the first spatial reconstructions of pan-Antarctic upper-air temperature trends. They strongly suggest that both the year-round mid-tropospheric warming and spring and summer lower stratospheric cooling have occurred above the entire continent, although their magnitudes and significance vary regionally. The reconstructed 500 hPa warming trends in winter and spring are largest over West Antarctica, the Ross Ice shelf, Victoria Land and Oates Land, and show close resemblance to those found in previously published surface temperature trend reconstructions, suggesting coupling between the surface and trends aloft. We speculate that the winter and spring mid-tropospheric warming may, in part, be driven by tropical ocean warming, analogous to proposed mechanisms for the co-located surface warming. The spring and summer lower stratospheric cooling is entirely consistent with the temperature response to ozone depletion

The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification

Copyright © 2010 Nature Publishing GroupThe rise in Arctic near-surface air temperatures has been almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades-a feature known as 'Arctic amplification'. Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have driven Arctic and global average warming; however, the underlying causes of Arctic amplification remain uncertain. The roles of reductions in snow and sea ice cover and changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, cloud cover and water vapour are still matters of debate. A better understanding of the processes responsible for the recent amplified warming is essential for assessing the likelihood, and impacts, of future rapid Arctic warming and sea ice loss. Here we show that the Arctic warming is strongest at the surface during most of the year and is primarily consistent with reductions in sea ice cover. Changes in cloud cover, in contrast, have not contributed strongly to recent warming. Increases in atmospheric water vapour content, partly in response to reduced sea ice cover, may have enhanced warming in the lower part of the atmosphere during summer and early autumn. We conclude that diminishing sea ice has had a leading role in recent Arctic temperature amplification. The findings reinforce suggestions that strong positive ice-temperature feedbacks have emerged in the Arctic, increasing the chances of further rapid warming and sea ice loss, and will probably affect polar ecosystems, ice-sheet mass balance and human activities in the Arctic

Caution needed when linking weather extremes to amplified planetary waves

Copyright © 2013 National Academy of Science

Increasing fall-winter energy loss from the Arctic Ocean and its role in Arctic temperature amplification

Copyright © 2010 American Geophysical UnionArctic surface temperatures have risen faster than the global average in recent decades, in part due to positive feedbacks associated with the rapidly diminishing sea ice cover. Counter-intuitively, the Arctic warming has been strongest in late fall and early winter whilst sea ice reductions and the direct ice-albedo feedback have been greatest in summer and early fall. To reconcile this, previous studies have hypothesized that fall/winter Arctic warming has been enhanced by increased oceanic heat loss but have not presented quantitative evidence. Here we show increases in heat transfer from the Arctic Ocean to the overlying atmosphere during October–January, 1989–2009. The trends in surface air temperature, sea ice concentration and the surface heat fluxes display remarkable spatial correspondence. The increased oceanic heat loss is likely a combination of the direct response to fall/winter sea ice loss, and the indirect response to summer sea ice loss and increased summer ocean heating

Future Arctic sea-ice loss reduces severity of cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Geophysical Union (AGU) via the DOI in this record.The effects of Arctic sea-ice loss on cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in midlatitudes remains unclear. Previous studies have defined CAOs relative to present-day climate, but changes in CAOs, defined in such a way, may reflect changes in mean climate and not in weather variability, and society is more sensitive to the latter. Here we revisit this topic but applying changing temperature thresholds relating to climate conditions of the time. CAOs do not change in frequency or duration in response to projected sea-ice loss. However, they become less severe, mainly due to advection of warmed polar air, since the dynamics associated with the occurrence of CAOs are largely not affected. CAOs weaken even in midlatitude regions where the winter-mean temperature decreases in response to Arctic sea-ice loss. These results are robustly simulated by two atmospheric models prescribed with differing future sea ice states and in transient runs where external forcings are included.This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council grants NE/M006123/1 and NE/J019585/1. The authors kindly thank Clara Deser, Lantao Sun and Bob Tomas for their efforts in performing the CAM4 simulations and for sharing these. We also thank Dr. Michael Kelleher for his aid with the code. The HadGAM2 simulations were performed on the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP5, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. Data from CMIP5 runs can be accessed through http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/ and data from the sea ice experiments are available from the authors upon request

Declining summer snowfall in the Arctic: Causes, impacts and feedbacks

Copyright © 2012 Springer Verlag. The final publication is available at link.springer.comRecent changes in the Arctic hydrological cycle are explored using in situ observations and an improved atmospheric reanalysis data set, ERA-Interim. We document a pronounced decline in summer snowfall over the Arctic Ocean and Canadian Archipelago. The snowfall decline is diagnosed as being almost entirely caused by changes in precipitation form (snow turning to rain) with very little influence of decreases in total precipitation. The proportion of precipitation falling as snow has decreased as a result of lower-atmospheric warming. Statistically, over 99% of the summer snowfall decline is linked to Arctic warming over the past two decades. Based on the reanalysis snowfall data over the ice-covered Arctic Ocean, we derive an estimate for the amount of snow-covered ice. It is estimated that the area of snow-covered ice, and the proportion of sea ice covered by snow, have decreased significantly. We perform a series of sensitivity experiments in which inter-annual changes in snow-covered ice are either unaccounted for, or are parameterized. In the parameterized case, the loss of snow-on-ice results in a substantial decrease in the surface albedo over the Arctic Ocean, that is of comparable magnitude to the decrease in albedo due to the decline in sea ice cover. Accordingly, the solar input to the Arctic Ocean is increased, causing additional surface ice melt. We conclude that the decline in summer snowfall has likely contributed to the thinning of sea ice over recent decades. The results presented provide support for the existence of a positive feedback in association with warming-induced reductions in summer snowfall

Mixed layer temperature response to the southern annular mode: Mechanisms and model representation

Previous studies have shown that simulated sea surface temperature (SST) responses to the southern annular mode (SAM) in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) climate models compare poorly to the observed response. The reasons behind these model inaccuracies are explored. The ocean mixed layer heat budget is examined in four of the CMIP3 models and by using observations- reanalyses. The SST response to the SAM is predominantly driven by sensible and latent heat flux and Ekman heat transport anomalies. The radiative heat fluxes play a lesser but nonnegligible role. Errors in the simulated SST responses are traced back to deficiencies in the atmospheric response to the SAM. The models exaggerate the surface wind response to the SAM leading to large unrealistic Ekman transport anomalies. During the positive phase of the SAM, this results in excessive simulated cooling in the 40°-65°S latitudes. Problems with the simulated wind stress responses, which relate partly to errors in the simulated winds themselves and partly to the transfer coefficients used in the models, are a key cause of the errors in the SST response. In the central Pacific sector (90°-150°W), errors arise because the simulated SAM is too zonally symmetric. Substantial errors in the net shortwave radiation are also found, resulting from a poor repre- sentation of the changes in cloud cover associated with the SAM. The problems in the simulated SST re- sponses shown by this study are comparable to deficiencies previously identified in the CMIP3 multimodel mean. Therefore, it is likely that the deficiencies identified here are common to other climate models

Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic sea ice loss

Copyright © 2014 American Meteorological SocietyIn early-January 2014, an Arctic air outbreak brought extreme cold and heavy snowfall to central and eastern North America, causing widespread disruption and monetary losses. The media extensively reported the cold snap, including debate on whether or not human-induced climate change was partly responsible. Related to this, one particular hypothesis garnered considerable attention: that rapid Arctic sea ice loss may be increasing the risk of cold extremes in mid-latitudes. Here we use large ensembles of model simulations to explore how the risk of North American daily cold extremes is anticipated to change in the future, in response to increases in greenhouse gases and the component of that response due solely to Arctic sea ice loss. Specifically, we examine the changing probability of daily cold extremes as (un)common as the 7 January 2014 event. Projected increases in greenhouse gases decrease the likelihood of North American cold extremes in the future. Days as cold or colder than the 7 January 2014 are still projected to occur in the mid twenty-first century (2030–49), albeit less frequently than in the late twentieth century (1980–99). However, such events will cease to occur by the late twenty-first century (2080–99), assuming greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Continued Arctic sea ice loss is a major driver of decreased - not increased - North America cold extremes. Projected Arctic sea ice loss alone reduces the odds of such an event by one quarter to one third by the mid twenty-first century, and to zero (or near-zero) by the late twenty-first century.National Environmental Research CouncilUS National Science Foundation Office of Polar ProgramsUS National Science Foundatio

Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss

This is the final version of the article. Available from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this record.The decline in Arctic sea ice cover has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts locally. An emerging and highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. Of particular societal relevance is the open question: will continued Arctic sea ice loss make mid-latitude weather more extreme? Here we analyse idealized atmospheric general circulation model simulations, using two independent models, both forced by projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. We identify robust projected changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes arising solely due to Arctic sea ice loss. The likelihood and duration of cold extremes are projected to decrease over high latitudes and over central and eastern North America, but to increase over central Asia. Hot extremes are projected to increase in frequency and duration over high latitudes. The likelihood and severity of wet extremes are projected to increase over high latitudes, the Mediterranean and central Asia; and their intensity is projected to increase over high latitudes and central and eastern Asia. The number of dry days over mid-latitude Eurasia and dry spell duration over high latitudes are both projected to decrease. There is closer model agreement for projected changes in temperature extremes than for precipitation extremes. Overall, we find that extreme weather over central and eastern North America is more sensitive to Arctic sea ice loss than over other mid-latitude regions. Our results are useful for constraining the role of Arctic sea ice loss in shifting the odds of extreme weather, but must not be viewed as deterministic projections, as they do not account for drivers other than Arctic sea ice loss.We thank Robert Tomas for conducting some of the CAM4 simulations. The HadGAM2 simulations were performed on the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. James Screen is supported by National Environmental Research Council grant NE/ J019585/1. The National Science Foundation (NSF) Office of Polar Programs supported Lantao Sun. The NSF sponsors NCAR. Two anonymous reviewers are thanked for their time and expert feedback