Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate

<div><p>Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta’s biodiversity are giant knotweed (<i>Fallopia sachalinensis</i>), tamarisk (<i>Tamarix chinensis</i>), and alkali swainsonpea (<i>Sphaerophysa salsula</i>). We characterise giant knotweed as ‘extremely invasive’, with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is ‘extremely invasive’ with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is ‘highly invasive’ with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.</p></div

Data from: Combining aggregated and dispersed tree retention harvesting for conservation of vascular plant communities

Data collected in the field

Differences in prioritization of new invasive species to Alberta when using risk assessment or habitat suitability modeling alone, compared with combining both risk assessment and habitat suitability modeling.

<p>Differences in prioritization of new invasive species to Alberta when using risk assessment or habitat suitability modeling alone, compared with combining both risk assessment and habitat suitability modeling.</p

Combining risk assessment and change in suitable high risk habitat between baseline climate and future climate for 15 potentially new invasive species to Alberta.

<p>Combining risk assessment and change in suitable high risk habitat between baseline climate and future climate for 15 potentially new invasive species to Alberta.</p

Study species and species location data used in habitat suitability modeling.

<p>The data sources were the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Atlas Florae Europaeae (AFE).</p