Fatality rates associated with driving and cycling for all road users in Great Britain 2005–2013

Fatality rates based on deaths only to the drivers themselves do not accurately portray the impact of driving on road traffic deaths. We characterised more fully the impact of driving and cycling on road traffic fatalities by including deaths to all the other road users in fatal car or cycle crashes. We used crash data from the Great Britain National Road Accident Database (STATS19) and exposure data from the National Travel Survey. Rates were estimated as the ratio of fatalities to the amount of time travelled: fatalities per million hours’ use (f/mhu). Rates in 2005-07, 2008-10, and 2011-13 were calculated based on deaths to: (1) the drivers or cyclists themselves (persons ‘in charge’ of vehicles), (2) other, i.e. ‘third-party’, road users (e.g. passengers, drivers or riders of other vehicles, and pedestrians), and (3) both of these groups combined, i.e. all road users. Rates were stratified by the sex and age of the drivers or cyclists involved in the fatal crashes. Rates based on deaths to persons in charge of vehicles were higher for cyclists than for drivers, whereas those based on deaths to third-party road users showed the opposite. The inclusion of third-party deaths increased the overall rates considerably more for drivers than for cyclists. Nevertheless, the overall rate for male cyclists (2011-13: 0.425 f/mhu; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.377–0.478) exceeded that for male drivers (0.257 f/mhu; 95% CI: 0.248–0.267). A similar pattern was observed for females (cycling: 0.216 f/mhu; 95% CI: 0.158–0.287; driving: 0.127 f/mhu; 95% CI: 0.120–0.135). These differences between cars and cycles were overestimated as the safer travel on motorways could not be disaggregated in the estimates for driving. The higher rates for cycling - mainly borne by the cyclists themselves - need to be balanced against the substantially lower risks to other road users

Ab-Initio Calculation of Molecular Aggregation Effects: a Coumarin-343 Case Study

We present time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) calculations for single and dimerized Coumarin-343 molecules in order to investigate the quantum mechanical effects of chromophore aggregation in extended systems designed to function as a new generation of sensors and light-harvesting devices. Using the single-chromophore results, we describe the construction of effective Hamiltonians to predict the excitonic properties of aggregate systems. We compare the electronic coupling properties predicted by such effective Hamiltonians to those obtained from TDDFT calculations of dimers, and to the coupling predicted by the transition density cube (TDC) method. We determine the accuracy of the dipole-dipole approximation and TDC with respect to the separation distance and orientation of the dimers. In particular, we investigate the effects of including Coulomb coupling terms ignored in the typical tight-binding effective Hamiltonian. We also examine effects of orbital relaxation which cannot be captured by either of these models

Financial correlations at ultra-high frequency: theoretical models and empirical estimation

A detailed analysis of correlation between stock returns at high frequency is compared with simple models of random walks. We focus in particular on the dependence of correlations on time scales - the so-called Epps effect. This provides a characterization of stochastic models of stock price returns which is appropriate at very high frequency.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, version to appear in EPJ

Comparison of the genetic algorithm and incremental optimisation routines for a Bayesian inverse modelling based network design

The design of an optimal network of atmospheric monitoring stations for the observation of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations can be obtained by applying an optimisation algorithm to a cost function based on minimising posterior uncertainty in the CO2; fluxes obtained from a Bayesian inverse modelling solution. Two candidate optimisation methods assessed were the evolutionary algorithm: the Genetic Algorithm (GA), and the deterministic algorithm: the Incremental Optimisation (IO) routine. This paper assessed the ability of the IO routine in comparison to the more computationally demanding GA routine to optimise the placement of a five-member network of CO2 monitoring sites located in South Africa. The comparison considered the reduction in uncertainty of the overall flux estimate, the spatial similarity of solutions, and computational requirements. Although the IO routine failed to find the solution with the global maximum uncertainty reduction, the resulting solution had only fractionally lower uncertainty reduction compared with the GA, and at only a quarter of the computational resources used by the lowest specified GA algorithm. The GA solution set showed more inconsistency if the number of iterations or population size was small, and more so for a complex prior flux covariance matrix. If the GA completed with a sub-optimal solution, these solutions were similar in fitness to the best available solution. Two additional scenarios were considered, with the objective of creating circumstances where the GA may outperform the IO. The first scenario considered an established network, where the optimisation was required to add an additional five stations to an existing five-member network. In the second scenario the optimisation was based only on the uncertainty reduction within a subregion of the domain. The GA was able to find a better solution than the IO under both scenarios, but with only a marginal improvement in the uncertainty reduction. These results suggest that the best use of resources for the network design problem would be spent in improvement of the prior estimates of the flux uncertainties rather than investing these resources in running a complex evolutionary optimisation algorithm. The authors recommend that, if time and computational resources allow, that multiple optimisation techniques should be used as a part of a comprehensive suite of sensitivity tests when performing such an optimisation exercise. This will provide a selection of best solutions which could be ranked based on their utility and practicality.</p

Exciton bimolecular annihilation dynamics in supramolecular nanostructures of conjugated oligomers

We present femtosecond transient absorption measurements on $\pi$-conjugated supramolecular assemblies in a high pump fluence regime. Oligo(\emph{p}-phenylenevinylene) monofunctionalized with ureido-\emph{s}-triazine (MOPV) self-assembles into chiral stacks in dodecane solution below 75$^{\circ}$C at a concentration of $4\times 10^{-4}$ M. We observe exciton bimolecular annihilation in MOPV stacks at high excitation fluence, indicated by the fluence-dependent decay of $1^1$B$_{u}$-exciton spectral signatures, and by the sub-linear fluence dependence of time- and wavelength-integrated photoluminescence (PL) intensity. These two characteristics are much less pronounced in MOPV solution where the phase equilibrium is shifted significantly away from supramolecular assembly, slightly below the transition temperature. A mesoscopic rate-equation model is applied to extract the bimolecular annihilation rate constant from the excitation fluence dependence of transient absorption and PL signals. The results demonstrate that the bimolecular annihilation rate is very high with a square-root dependence in time. The exciton annihilation results from a combination of fast exciton diffusion and resonance energy transfer. The supramolecular nanostructures studied here have electronic properties that are intermediate between molecular aggregates and polymeric semiconductors

Evidence of a high incidence of subclinically affected calves in a herd of cattle with fatal cases of Bovine Neonatal Pancytopenia (BNP).

BACKGROUND: Bovine Neonatal Pancytopenia (BNP) is a disease of calves characterised by bone marrow trilineage hypoplasia, mediated by ingestion of alloantibodies in colostrum. Suspected subclinical forms of BNP have been reported, suggesting that observed clinical cases may not represent the full extent of the disease. However to date there are no objective data available on the incidence of subclinical disease or its temporal distribution. This study aimed to 1) ascertain whether subclinical BNP occurs and, if so, to determine the incidence on an affected farm and 2) determine whether there is evidence of temporal clustering of BNP cases on this farm. To achieve these aims, haematological screening of calves born on the farm during one calving season was carried out, utilising blood samples collected at defined ages. These data were then analysed in comparison to data from both known BNP-free control animals and histopathologically confirmed BNP cases. An ordinal logistic regression model was used to create a composite haematology score to predict the probabilities of calves being normal, based on their haematology measurements at 10–14 days old. RESULTS: This study revealed that 15% (21 of 139) of the clinically normal calves on this farm had profoundly abnormal haematology (<5% chance of being normal) and could be defined as affected by subclinical BNP. Together with clinical BNP cases, this gave the study farm a BNP incidence of 18%. Calves with BNP were found to be distributed throughout the calving period, with no clustering, and no significant differences in the date of birth of cases or subclinical cases were found compared to the rest of the calves. This study did not find any evidence of increased mortality or increased time from birth to sale in subclinical BNP calves but, as the study only involved a single farm and adverse effects may be determined by other inter-current diseases it remains possible that subclinical BNP has a detrimental impact on the health and productivity of calves under certain circumstances. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical BNP was found to occur at a high incidence in a herd of cattle with fatal cases of BNP

Atomistic simulations of self-trapped exciton formation in silicon nanostructures: The transition from quantum dots to nanowires

Using an approximate time-dependent density functional theory method, we calculate the absorption and luminescence spectra for hydrogen passivated silicon nanoscale structures with large aspect ratio. The effect of electron confinement in axial and radial directions is systematically investigated. Excited state relaxation leads to significant Stokes shifts for short nanorods with lengths less than 2 nm, but has little effect on the luminescence intensity. The formation of self-trapped excitons is likewise observed for short nanostructures only; longer wires exhibit fully delocalized excitons with neglible geometrical distortion at the excited state minimum.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure