Performance of route suggestions in networks with correlated link congestion.

We evaluate the performance of route suggestions which can be adopted when no real time information is available. We consider that when the available information is limited, risk-aversion, regret and disappointment may play an important role in decision making. The effect of link travel time correlation on heuristic route choice efficiency is also explored. Monte Carlo simulation is used to study the performance of heuristic decision making in the Chicago network under different levels of congestion. We conclude that finding the shortest path is more difficult and more important – and therefore the value of real time information is higher – in the presence of positive correlation. A simple local search considering frustration proves the best a priori strategy in many circumstances

Explaining a century of Swiss regional development by deep learning and SHAP values

We use a graph convolutional neural network (GCN) for regional development prediction with population, railway network density, and road network density of each municipality as development indicators. By structuring the long-term time series data from 2833 municipalities in Switzerland during the years 1910–2000 as graphs over time, the GCN model interprets the indicators as node features and produces an acceptable prediction accuracy on their future values. Moreover, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAPs) are used to make the results of this approach explainable. We develop an algorithm to obtain SHAP values for the GCN and a sensitivity indicator to quantify the marginal contributions of the node features. This explainable GCN with SHAP decomposes the indicator into the contribution by the previous status of the municipality itself and the influence from other municipalities. We show that this provides valuable insights into understanding the history of regional development. Specifically, the results demonstrate that the impacts of geographical and economic constraints and urban sprawl on regional development vary significantly between municipalities and that the constraints are more important in the early 20th century. The model is able to include more information and can be applied to other regions and countries

Strategy choice in transit networks.

Public transport passengers are assumed to choose routes that minimise the expected travel times. In networks with high-frequency services this requires the adoption of hyperpaths. An experimental validation of the hyperpath model has been carried out through a web-based survey. Findings of previous work on the survey are compared with a new cluster analysis of travellers’ behaviour as reported by respondents in the stated preference section of the survey. Results show that the behaviour usually assumed in transit models is not the most common approach to route choice in transit network. Implications for transit assignment models are discussed

Budesonide orodispersible tablets maintain remission in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of patients with eosinophilic esophagitis

Background & Aims: Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic inflammatory disorder. Swallowed topical-acting corticosteroids are effective in bringing active EoE into remission. However, it is not clear whether these drugs are effective for long-term maintenance of remission. Methods: We performed a double-blind trial to compare the efficacy and safety of 2 dosages of a budesonide orodispersible tablet (BOT) vs placebo in maintaining remission of EoE. Maintenance of remission was defined as absence of clinical and histologic relapse and no premature withdrawal for any reason. Two hundred and four adults with EoE in clinical and histologic remission, from 29 European study sites, were randomly assigned to groups given BOT 0.5 mg twice daily (n = 68), BOT 1.0 mg twice daily (n = 68), or placebo twice daily (n = 68) for up to 48 weeks. Results: At end of treatment, 73.5% of patients receiving BOT 0.5 mg twice daily and 75% receiving BOT 1.0 mg twice daily were in persistent remission compared with 4.4% of patients in the placebo group (P < .001 for both comparisons of BOT with placebo). Median time to relapse in the placebo group was 87 days. The frequency of adverse events was similar in the BOT and placebo groups. Morning serum levels of cortisol were in the normal range at baseline and did not significantly change during treatment. Four patients receiving BOT developed asymptomatic, low serum levels of cortisol. Clinically manifested candidiasis was suspected in 16.2% of patients in the BOT 0.5 mg group and in 11.8% of patients in the BOT 1.0 mg group; all infections resolved with treatment. Conclusions: In a phase 3 trial, up to 48 weeks of treatment with BOT (0.5 mg or 1.0 mg twice daily) was superior to placebo in maintaining remission of EoE. Both dosages were equally effective and well tolerated. EudraCT number; 2014-001485-99; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02434029

Dynamic capacity constrained transit assignment

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Decision principles for routing strategies: games against nature and demons.

In this paper we firstly review general decision principles under uncertainty and apply them to route choice decisions. Risk-averse behaviour leads to the description of route choice a game. The difference between games against demons and nature are pointed out by distinguishing when disruptions on the chosen route might be related to the traveller’s behaviour or not. It is argued that in many cases the traveller has some (limited) information about the connection between attack likelihood and routing, meaning that pure games against demons are rare for practical applications. The paper therefore extends the game theoretic literature on route choice by formulating a generalised model. The model allows for games against multiple demons and consideration that some links might be safer than others. It is shown that games against nature and the Bell (2007) model can be derived as limiting cases. Results are illustrated with an example network

Effects of transit real-time information usage strategies.

Real-time information is becoming increasingly available to transit travellers. This paper discusses the effects of RTI available before the start of a journey in terms of line loads as well as passenger benefits. We consider that it can affect the choice of departure time and stop as well as the route choice. Two types of travellers with access to RTI are distinguished: Travellers who want to arrive at their destination as soon as possible and passengers who prefer to stay slightly longer at their current location if this can reduce their travel time. For illustration we use a network with irregular service arrivals and take the optimal strategy approach of Spiess and Florian (1) as a benchmark for passengers without RTI access. We find that, as expected, travellers without RTI travel longer but also that particular combinations of traveller strategy and RTI provision lead to counterintuitive effects. We further illustrate that the two strategies of the RTI access travellers can lead to significant differences in loads. Implications for demand management are discussed

Multi-objective signal control of urban junctions - Framework and a London case study

This paper presents an approach to multi-objective signal control using fuzzy logic. The signal control uses fuzzy logic where the membership functions are optimised according to the Bellman-Zadeh principle of fuzzy decision-making. This approach is both practical for the decision-maker and efficient, as it leads directly to a Pareto-optimal solution. Signal control priorities are ultimately a political decision. Therefore the tool developed in this research allows the traffic engineer to balance the objectives easily by setting acceptability and unacceptability thresholds for each objective. Particular attention is given in the example to pedestrian delays. The membership functions of the fuzzy logic are optimised by a genetic algorithm coupled to the VISSIM microscopic traffic simulator. The concept is illustrated with a case study of the Marylebone Road-Baker Street intersection in London at which pedestrians as well as vehicle flows are high. The results prove the feasibility of the framework and show the vehicle delays for a more pedestrian friendly signal control strategy. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Mobility Scooters on Loan – A Scheme Complementing the Existing Special Transport Services in London

Special transport services (STS) are an important and increasingly popular way to meet the travel demand of those with mobility impairments which could not be satisfied by mainstream public transport. STS are frequently expensive to the service operator but often allow for the social inclusion of a population group previously homebound. In this paper, five special transport schemes available in the London Borough of Camden are described, in particular the “ScootAbility” scheme, which provides mobility scooters and electric wheelchairs on loan. Advantages and drawbacks of all schemes are outlined and possible improvements are discussed. Further the user uptake of the ScootAbility scheme is analyzed through focus group discussions as well as travel diaries. The results are encouraging as they suggest that ScootAbility can fill in some gaps of previously unmet travel demand. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications and suggesting that complex travel needs of an aging population can only be met by providing a multi-modal approach to STS, which needs to be co-ordinated in order to be sustainable