Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level

The 2015 Paris Agreement sets out that rapid reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are needed to keep global warming to safe levels. A new approach (known as GWP*) has been suggested to compare contributions of long- and short-lived GHGs, providing a close link between cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions and total warming. However, comparison factors for non-CO2 GHGs under the GWP* metric depend on past emissions, and hence raise questions of equity and fairness when applied at any but the global level. The use of GWP* would put most developing countries at a disadvantage compared to developed countries, because when using GWP* countries with high historical emissions of short-lived GHGs are exempted from accounting for avoidable future warming that is caused by sustaining these emissions. We show that when various established equity or fairness criteria are applied to GWP* (defined here as eGWP*), perceived national non-CO2 emissions vary by more than an order of magnitude, particularly in countries with high methane emissions like New Zealand. We show that national emission estimates that use GWP* are very sensitive to arbitrary choices made by countries and therewith facilitate the creation of loopholes when CO2-equivalent emissions based on the GWP* concept are traded between countries that use different approaches. In light of such equity-dependent accounting differences, GHG metrics like GWP* should only be used at the global level. A common, transparent and equity-neutral accounting metric is vital for the Paris Agreement's effectiveness and its environmental integrity

Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level

The 2015 Paris Agreement sets out that rapid reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are needed to keep global warming to safe levels. A new approach (known as GWP*) has been suggested to compare contributions of long- and short-lived GHGs, providing a close link between cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions and total warming. However, comparison factors for non-CO2 GHGs under the GWP* metric depend on past emissions, and hence raise questions of equity and fairness when applied at any but the global level. The use of GWP* would put most developing countries at a disadvantage compared to developed countries, because when using GWP* countries with high historical emissions of short-lived GHGs are exempted from accounting for avoidable future warming that is caused by sustaining these emissions. We show that when various established equity or fairness criteria are applied to GWP* (defined here as eGWP*), perceived national non-CO2 emissions vary by more than an order of magnitude, particularly in countries with high methane emissions like New Zealand. We show that national emission estimates that use GWP* are very sensitive to arbitrary choices made by countries and therewith facilitate the creation of loopholes when CO2-equivalent emissions based on the GWP* concept are traded between countries that use different approaches. In light of such equity-dependent accounting differences, GHG metrics like GWP* should only be used at the global level. A common, transparent and equity-neutral accounting metric is vital for the Paris Agreement's effectiveness and its environmental integrity

Reply to Comment on 'Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level'

This is a companion article to 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 068001 This is a companion article to 2019 Environ. Res. Lett. 14 114039H2020 Societal Challengeshttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010676Peer Reviewe

Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure

Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors have often been considered independently, yet recent advances in social network research challenge this view. Here we show that common features of societal marginalization and clustering emerge naturally during transitions in a co-evolutionary adaptive network model. This is achieved by explicitly considering the interplay between individual interaction and a dynamic network structure in behavioural selection. We exemplify this mechanism by simulating how smoking behaviour and the network structure get reconfigured by changing social norms. Our results are consistent with empirical findings: The prevalence of smoking was reduced, remaining smokers were preferentially connected among each other and formed increasingly marginalised clusters. We propose that self-amplifying feedbacks between individual behaviour and dynamic restructuring of the network are main drivers of the transition. This generative mechanism for co-evolution of individual behaviour and social network structure may apply to a wide range of examples beyond smoking.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is affecting agriculture and crop production. The responses of horticultural and agricultural systems to changing climatic conditions can be non-linear and at times counter-intuitive. Depending on the characteristics of the system, the actual impact can arise as a result of a combination of climate hazards or compound events. Here, we show that compound events can lead to increased risk of frost damage for apple fruit trees in Germany in a 2 °C warmer world of up to 10% relative to present day. Although the absolute number of frost days is declining, warmer winters also lead to earlier blossom of fruit trees, which in turn can lead to regionally dependent increased risks of the occurrence of frost days after apple blossom. In southern Germany, warmer winters may also lead to an increase in years in which apple yield is negatively affected by a lack of sufficient amount of cold days to trigger the seasonal response of the trees. Our results show how cropping system responses to seasonal climate can lead to unexpected effects of increased risk of frost damage as a result of warmer winters. An improved understanding of ecosystem responses to changes in climate signals is important to fully assess the impacts of climate change. © 2019, The Author(s)

Deadly Heat Stress to Become Commonplace Across South Asia Already at 1.5°C of Global Warming

South Asia (SA) is one of those hotspots where earliest exposure to deadly wet-bulb temperatures (Tw >35°C) is projected in warmer future climates. Here we find that even today parts of SA experience the upper limits of labor productivity (Tw >32°C) or human survivability (Tw >35°C), indicating that previous estimates for future exposure to Tw-based extremes may be conservative. Our results show that at 2°C global warming above pre-industrial levels, the per person exposure approximately increases by 2.2 (2.7) folds for unsafe labor (lethal) threshold compared to the 2006–2015 reference period. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would avoid about half that impact. The population growth under the middle-of-the-road socioeconomic pathway could further increase these exposures by a factor of ∼2 by the mid-century. These results indicate an imminent need for adaptation measures, while highlighting the importance of stringent Paris-compatible mitigation actions for limiting future emergence of such conditions in SA

Fair distributions of carbon dioxide removal obligations and implications for effective national net-zero targets

Achieving net-zero emissions at the global level, as required to limit warming to 1.5 °C, means both rapid emissions reductions across all sectors as well as a scaling-up of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As a growing number of countries bring forward national net-zero targets, the questions of how much CDR each nation holds responsibility for, whether CDR transfers should be possible under the Paris Agreement market mechanisms, and how this might affect the years in which different countries should achieve net-zero, become increasingly important. Here we show that, depending on the normative assumptions underlying a CDR burden-sharing system, the adjusted net-zero date for big emitting countries could shift forward by up to 15 years (EU, based on gross domestic product) to 35 years (Russia, based on cumulative per capita emissions) compared with what is modeled domestically in global least-cost scenarios. This illustrates a challenge of using least-cost model scenarios as a basis for setting and evaluating net-zero targets. We also evaluate the potential risk of carbon loss associated with CDR transfers of such a magnitude, and consider how a discount factor could help address carbon loss risks and contribute to overall mitigation. Our results highlight the need for clear guidelines to ensure that international CDR transfers do not obscure urgently-needed domestic emission reductions efforts by big emitters, while promoting a fair and equitable distribution of the CDR burden inflicted by insufficient near-term mitigation. We find a separate mechanism or accounting for CDR obligations to be the most promising avenue to deliver on these objectives.Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Peer Reviewe

From Paris to Makkah: heat stress risks for Muslim pilgrims at 1.5 °C and 2 °C

The pilgrimages of Muslims to Makkah (Hajj and Umrah) is one of the largest religious gatherings in the world which draws millions of people from around 180 countries each year. Heat stress during summer has led to health impacts including morbidity and mortality in the past, which is likely to worsen due to global warming. Here we investigate the impacts of increasing heat stress during the peak summer months over Makkah at present levels of warming as well as under Paris Agreement's targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial levels. This is achieved by using multi member ensemble projections from the half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts project. We find a substantial increase in the exceedance probabilities of dangerous thresholds (wet-bulb temperature >24.6 °C) in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds over the summer months. For the 3 hottest months, August, September and October, even thresholds of extremely dangerous (wet-bulb temperature >29.1 °C) health risks may be surpassed. An increase in exceedance probability of dangerous threshold is projected by two and three times in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds respectively for May as compared to the reference climate. September shows the highest increase in the exceedance probability of extremely dangerous threshold which is increased to 4 and 13 times in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds respectively. Based on the indicators of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, we carried out probabilistic risk analysis of life-threatening heat stroke over Makkah. A ten time increase in the heat stroke risk at higher wet-bulb temperatures for each month is projected in 2 °C warmer world. If warming was limited to 1.5 °C world, the risk would only increase by about five times, or half the risk of 2 °C. Our results indicate that substantial heat related risks during Hajj and Umrah happening over peak summer months, as it is the case for Hajj during this decade, will require substantial adaptation measures and would negatively affect the performance of the rite. Stringent mitigation actions to keep the global temperature to 1.5 °C can reduce the risks of heat related illnesses and thereby reduce the non-economic loss and damage related to one of the central pillars of a world religion

From Paris to Makkah: heat stress risks for Muslim pilgrims at 1.5 °C and 2 °C

The pilgrimages of Muslims to Makkah (Hajj and Umrah) is one of the largest religious gatherings in the world which draws millions of people from around 180 countries each year. Heat stress during summer has led to health impacts including morbidity and mortality in the past, which is likely to worsen due to global warming. Here we investigate the impacts of increasing heat stress during the peak summer months over Makkah at present levels of warming as well as under Paris Agreement's targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial levels. This is achieved by using multi member ensemble projections from the half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts project. We find a substantial increase in the exceedance probabilities of dangerous thresholds (wet-bulb temperature >24.6 °C) in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds over the summer months. For the 3 hottest months, August, September and October, even thresholds of extremely dangerous (wet-bulb temperature >29.1 °C) health risks may be surpassed. An increase in exceedance probability of dangerous threshold is projected by two and three times in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds respectively for May as compared to the reference climate. September shows the highest increase in the exceedance probability of extremely dangerous threshold which is increased to 4 and 13 times in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds respectively. Based on the indicators of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, we carried out probabilistic risk analysis of life-threatening heat stroke over Makkah. A ten time increase in the heat stroke risk at higher wet-bulb temperatures for each month is projected in 2 °C warmer world. If warming was limited to 1.5 °C world, the risk would only increase by about five times, or half the risk of 2 °C. Our results indicate that substantial heat related risks during Hajj and Umrah happening over peak summer months, as it is the case for Hajj during this decade, will require substantial adaptation measures and would negatively affect the performance of the rite. Stringent mitigation actions to keep the global temperature to 1.5 °C can reduce the risks of heat related illnesses and thereby reduce the non-economic loss and damage related to one of the central pillars of a world religion.German Federal Ministry of Education and ResearchPeer Reviewe