3,390 research outputs found
The Highly Unusual Outgassing of Comet 103P/Hartley 2 from Narrowband Photometry and Imaging of the Coma
We report on photometry and imaging of Comet 103P/Hartley 2 obtained at
Lowell Observatory from 1991 through 2011. We acquired photoelectric photometry
on two nights in 1991, four nights in 1997/98, and 13 nights in 2010/11. We
observed a strong secular decrease in water and all other observed species
production in 2010/11 from the 1991 and 1997/98 levels. We see evidence for a
strong asymmetry with respect to perihelion in the production rates of our
usual bandpasses, with peak production occurring ~10 days post-perihelion and
production rates considerably higher post-perihelion. The composition was
"typical", in agreement with the findings of other investigators. We obtained
imaging on 39 nights from 2010 July until 2011 January. We find that, after
accounting for their varying parentage and lifetimes, the C2 and C3 coma
morphology resemble the CN morphology we reported previously. These species
exhibited an hourglass shape in October and November, and the morphology
changed with rotation and evolved over time. The OH and NH coma morphology
showed hints of an hourglass shape near the nucleus, but was also enhanced in
the anti-sunward hemisphere. This tailward brightness enhancement did not vary
significantly with rotation and evolved with the viewing geometry. We conclude
that all five gas species likely originate from the same source regions on the
nucleus, but that OH and NH were derived from small grains of water and ammonia
ice that survived long enough to be affected by radiation pressure and driven
in the anti-sunward direction. We detected the faint, sunward facing dust jet
reported by other authors, and did not detect a corresponding gas feature. This
jet varied little during a night but exhibited some variations from night to
night, suggesting it is located near the total angular momentum vector.Comment: Accepted by Icarus; 20 pages of text (preprint style), 5 tables, 7
figure
Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets
This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for individual as well as ‘average ’ models. The asymptotic as well as the exact finite-sample distribution of the test statistic, dealing with the possibility of parameter uncertainty, are established. The model averaging idea and the VaR diagnostic tests are illustrated by an application to portfolios of daily returns on six currencies, four equity indices, four ten year government bonds and four commodities over the period 1991-2007. The empirical evidence supports the use of ‘thick’ model averaging strategies over single models or Bayesian type model averaging procedures
The formation of supermassive black holes in rapidly rotating disks
Massive primordial halos exposed to moderate UV backgrounds are the potential
birthplaces of supermassive black holes. In such a halo, an initially
isothermal collapse will occur, leading to high accretion rates of
~M~yr. During the collapse, the gas in the interior
will turn into a molecular state, and form an accretion disk due to the
conservation of angular momentum. We consider here the structure of such an
accretion disk and the role of viscous heating in the presence of high
accretion rates for a central star of , and ~M. Our
results show that the temperature in the disk increases considerably due to
viscous heating, leading to a transition from the molecular to the atomic
cooling phase. We found that the atomic cooling regime may extend out to
several ~AU for a ~M central star and provides substantial
support to stabilize the disk. It therefore favors the formation of a massive
central object. The comparison of clump migration and contraction time scales
shows that stellar feedback from these clumps may occur during the later stages
of the evolution. Overall, viscous heating provides an important pathway to
obtain an atomic gas phase within the center of the halo, and helps in the
formation of very massive objects. The latter may collapse to form a massive
black hole of about ~M.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics, comments are
still welcom
The Nucleus of Comet 10P/Tempel 2 in 2013 and Consequences Regarding Its Rotational State: Early Science from the Discovery Channel Telescope
We present new lightcurve measurements of Comet 10P/Tempel 2 carried out with
Lowell Observatory's Discovery Channel Telescope in early 2013 when the comet
was at aphelion. These data represent some of the first science obtained with
this new 4.3-m facility. With Tempel 2 having been observed to exhibit a small
but ongoing spin-down in its rotation period for over two decades, our primary
goals at this time were two-fold. First, to determine its current rotation
period and compare it to that measured shortly after its most recent perihelion
passage in 2010, and second, to disentangle the spin-down from synodic effects
due to the solar day and the Earth's orbital motion and to determine the sense
of rotation, i.e. prograde or retrograde. At our midpoint of 2013 Feb 24, the
observed synodic period is 8.948+/-0.001 hr, exactly matching the predicted
prograde rotation solution based on 2010 results, and yields a sidereal period
of the identical value due to the solar and Earth synodic components just
canceling out during the interval of the 2013 observations. The retrograde
solution is ruled out because the associated sidereal periods in 2010 and 2013
are quite different even though we know that extremely little outgassing,
needed to produce torques, occurred in this interval. With a definitive sense
of rotation, the specific amounts of spin-down to the sidereal period could be
assessed. The nominal values imply that the rate of spin-down has decreased
over time, consistent with the secular drop in water production since 1988. Our
data also exhibited an unexpectedly small lightcurve amplitude which appears to
be associated with viewing from a large, negative sub-Earth latitude, and a
lightcurve shape deviating from a simple sinusoid implying a highly irregularly
shaped nucleus.Comment: Accepted by AJ; 12 pages of text (pre-print style), 3 tables, 2
figure
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