Fiscal risks and the quality of fiscal adjustment in Hungary

The government of Hungary has contained the main fiscal risks of the transition to a market economy. It has paid off and resolved most problems in the banking and enterprise sectors. Since 1995 it has implemented fiscal adjustment with the objective of long-term fiscal stability rather than an immediate deficit target. The main result has been pension reform, which has raised temporary deficits but reduced the long-term public liability. Only the health sector awaits the reform needed for long-term fiscal stability. Levels of government spending, budget deficits, and public service remain high, but the government has made great progress toward rationalizing public spending and improving the management of budget and off-budget fiscal risks. In the transition, the government has taken on new fiscal risks--mainly state guarantees and growing programs of credit and guarantee agencies (operating on behalf of the government) organized after privatization to support, first, industries and, later, exporters. The government has dealt with these new programs of contingent government support prudently and transparently, with reasonable ceilings on (and reporting of) risks. Hungary is likely to face pressure for additional spending. Priorities in fiscal policy should include reforming health financing, establishing checks on hidden subsidies in guarantee programs, and determining the government's optimal exposure to risk. In terms of institutions, the government should aim to create a more flexible, responsive budget process and greater capacity to analyze medium-term fiscal risks, to build a more results-oriented budget management system, and to improve mechanisms for sharing risk between the public and private sectors under government programs.Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Banks&Banking Reform,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Banks&Banking Reform,National Governance,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Municipal Financial Management,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring

Validity of Chatbot Use for Mental Health Assessment: Experimental Study

BACKGROUND: Mental disorders in adolescence and young adulthood are major public health concerns. Digital tools such as text-based conversational agents (ie, chatbots) are a promising technology for facilitating mental health assessment. However, the human-like interaction style of chatbots may induce potential biases, such as socially desirable responding (SDR), and may require further effort to complete assessments. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the convergent and discriminant validity of chatbots for mental health assessments, the effect of assessment mode on SDR, and the effort required by participants for assessments using chatbots compared with established modes. METHODS: In a counterbalanced within-subject design, we assessed 2 different constructs—psychological distress (Kessler Psychological Distress Scale and Brief Symptom Inventory-18) and problematic alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-3)—in 3 modes (chatbot, paper-and-pencil, and web-based), and examined convergent and discriminant validity. In addition, we investigated the effect of mode on SDR, controlling for perceived sensitivity of items and individuals’ tendency to respond in a socially desirable way, and we also assessed the perceived social presence of modes. Including a between-subject condition, we further investigated whether SDR is increased in chatbot assessments when applied in a self-report setting versus when human interaction may be expected. Finally, the effort (ie, complexity, difficulty, burden, and time) required to complete the assessments was investigated. RESULTS: A total of 146 young adults (mean age 24, SD 6.42 years; n=67, 45.9% female) were recruited from a research panel for laboratory experiments. The results revealed high positive correlations (all P<.001) of measures of the same construct across different modes, indicating the convergent validity of chatbot assessments. Furthermore, there were no correlations between the distinct constructs, indicating discriminant validity. Moreover, there were no differences in SDR between modes and whether human interaction was expected, although the perceived social presence of the chatbot mode was higher than that of the established modes (P<.001). Finally, greater effort (all P<.05) and more time were needed to complete chatbot assessments than for completing the established modes (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that chatbots may yield valid results. Furthermore, an understanding of chatbot design trade-offs in terms of potential strengths (ie, increased social presence) and limitations (ie, increased effort) when assessing mental health were established

Effects of a novel, transdiagnostic, hybrid ecological momentary intervention for improving resilience in youth (EMIcompass):Protocol for an exploratory randomized controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Most mental disorders first emerge in youth and, in their early stages, surface as subthreshold expressions of symptoms comprising a transdiagnostic phenotype of psychosis, mania, depression, and anxiety. Elevated stress reactivity is one of the most widely studied mechanisms underlying psychotic and affective mental health problems. Thus, targeting stress reactivity in youth is a promising indicated and translational preventive strategy for adverse mental health outcomes that could develop later in life and for improving resilience. Compassion-focused interventions offer a wide range of innovative therapeutic techniques that are particularly amenable to being implemented as ecological momentary interventions (EMIs), a specific type of mobile health intervention, to enable youth to access interventions in a given moment and context in daily life. This approach may bridge the current gap in youth mental health care. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the clinical feasibility, candidate underlying mechanisms, and initial signals of the efficacy of a novel, transdiagnostic, hybrid EMI for improving resilience to stress in youth—EMIcompass. METHODS: In an exploratory randomized controlled trial, youth aged between 14 and 25 years with current distress, a broad Clinical High At-Risk Mental State, or the first episode of a severe mental disorder will be randomly allocated to the EMIcompass intervention (ie, EMI plus face-to-face training sessions) in addition to treatment as usual or a control condition of treatment as usual only. Primary (stress reactivity) and secondary candidate mechanisms (resilience, interpersonal sensitivity, threat anticipation, negative affective appraisals, and momentary physiological markers of stress reactivity), as well as primary (psychological distress) and secondary outcomes (primary psychiatric symptoms and general psychopathology), will be assessed at baseline, postintervention, and at the 4-week follow-up. RESULTS: The first enrollment was in August 2019, and as of May 2021, enrollment and randomization was completed (N=92). We expect data collection to be completed by August 2021. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to establish feasibility, evidence on underlying mechanisms, and preliminary signals of the efficacy of a compassion-focused EMI in youth. If successful, a confirmatory randomized controlled trial will be warranted. Overall, our approach has the potential to significantly advance preventive interventions in youth mental health provision. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register DRKS00017265; https://www.drks.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00017265 INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/2746

A hybrid ecological momentary compassion-focused intervention for enhancing resilience in help-seeking young people:A prospective study of baseline characteristics in the EMIcompass trial

BACKGROUND: Young people are a target population for mental health–related early intervention and prevention. Although evidence for early intervention is promising, availability of and access to youth mental health services remain limited. Therefore, the development of an evidence-based hybrid intervention is urgently needed. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to present a manual for a hybrid intervention, combining an ecological momentary intervention and face-to-face sessions aimed for enhancing resilience in help-seeking young people based on compassion-focused interventions, and explore whether participants’ baseline characteristics are associated with putative mechanisms and outcomes of the EMIcompass intervention. Specifically, we aimed to explore initial signals as to whether participants’ sociodemographic, clinical, and functional characteristics at baseline are associated with putative mechanisms (ie, change in self-compassion, change in emotion regulation, working alliance, training frequency); and whether participants’ sociodemographic, clinical, and functional characteristics, self-compassion, and emotion regulation at baseline are associated with clinical outcomes (ie, psychological distress and general psychopathology at postintervention and 4-week follow-ups) in the experimental condition and obtain first parameter estimates. METHODS: We recruited young people aged 14 to 25 years, with psychological distress, Clinical High At-Risk Mental State, or first episodes of severe mental disorder for an exploratory randomized controlled trial with assessments at baseline and postintervention and 4-week follow-ups. A structured manual was developed and optimized based on a pilot study’s manual, a scoping review of existing literature and manuals, exchange with experts, the team’s clinical experience of working with compassion-focused interventions, and the principles of ecological momentary interventions. This analysis focuses on the experimental condition receiving the EMIcompass intervention. RESULTS: A total of 46 young individuals were randomized to the experimental condition. There was evidence for initial signals of effects of age (B=0.11, 95% CI 0.00-0.22), general psychopathology (B=0.08, 95% CI −0.01 to 0.16), and clinical stage (B=1.50, 95% CI 0.06-2.93) on change in momentary self-compassion and change in emotion regulation from baseline to postintervention assessments. There was no evidence for associations of other baseline characteristics (eg, gender, minority status, and level of functioning) and putative mechanisms (eg, overall self-compassion, working alliance, and training frequency). In addition, except for an initial signal for an association of momentary self-compassion at baseline and psychological distress (B=−2.83, 95% CI −5.66 to 0.00), we found no evidence that baseline characteristics related to clinical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicated the reach of participants by the intervention largely independent of sociodemographic, clinical, and functional baseline characteristics. The findings need to be confirmed in a definitive trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register NDRKS00017265; https://www.drks.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00017265 INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.2196/2746

Transdiagnostic Ecological Momentary Intervention for Improving Self-Esteem in Youth Exposed to Childhood Adversity:The SELFIE Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance: Targeting low self-esteem in youth exposed to childhood adversity is a promising strategy for preventing adult mental disorders. Ecological momentary interventions (EMIs) allow for the delivery of youth-friendly, adaptive interventions for improving self-esteem, but robust trial-based evidence is pending.Objective: To examine the efficacy of SELFIE, a novel transdiagnostic, blended EMI for improving self-esteem plus care as usual (CAU) compared with CAU only.Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a 2-arm, parallel-group, assessor-blinded, randomized clinical trial conducted from December 2018 to December 2022. The study took place at Dutch secondary mental health services and within the general population and included youth (aged 12-26 years) with low self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale [RSES] &lt;26) exposed to childhood adversity.Interventions: A novel blended EMI (3 face-to-face sessions, email contacts, app-based, adaptive EMI) plus CAU or CAU only.Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was RSES self-esteem at postintervention and 6-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes included positive and negative self-esteem, schematic self-beliefs, momentary self-esteem and affect, general psychopathology, quality of life, observer-rated symptoms, and functioning.Results: A total of 174 participants (mean [SD] age, 20.7 [3.1] years; 154 female [89%]) were included in the intention-to-treat sample, who were primarily exposed to childhood emotional abuse or neglect, verbal or indirect bullying, and/or parental conflict. At postintervention, 153 participants (87.9%) and, at follow-up, 140 participants (80.5%), provided primary outcome data. RSES self-esteem was, on average, higher in the experimental condition (blended EMI + CAU) than in the control condition (CAU) across both postintervention and follow-up as a primary outcome (B = 2.32; 95% CI, 1.14-3.50; P &lt; .001; Cohen d-type effect size [hereafter, Cohen d] = 0.54). Small to moderate effect sizes were observed suggestive of beneficial effects on positive (B = 3.85; 95% CI, 1.83-5.88; P &lt; .001; Cohen d = 0.53) and negative (B = −3.78; 95% CI, −6.59 to −0.98; P = .008; Cohen d = −0.38) self-esteem, positive (B = 1.58; 95% CI, 0.41-2.75; P = .008; Cohen d = 0.38) and negative (B = −1.71; 95% CI, −2.93 to −0.48; P = .006; Cohen d = −0.39) schematic self-beliefs, momentary self-esteem (B = 0.29; 95% CI, 0.01-0.57; P = .04; Cohen d = 0.24), momentary positive affect (B = 0.23; 95% CI, 0.01-0.45; P = .04; Cohen d = 0.20), momentary negative affect (B = −0.33; 95% CI, −0.59 to −0.03, P = .01, Cohen d = −0.27), general psychopathology (B = −17.62; 95% CI, −33.03 to −2.21; P = .03; Cohen d = −0.34), and quality of life (B = 1.16; 95% CI, 0.18-2.13; P = .02; Cohen d = 0.33) across postintervention and follow-up. No beneficial effects on symptoms and functioning were observed.Conclusions and Relevance: A transdiagnostic, blended EMI demonstrated efficacy on the primary outcome of self-esteem and signaled beneficial effects on several secondary outcomes. Further work should focus on implementing this novel EMI in routine public mental health provision.Trial Registration Dutch Trial Register Identifier: NL7129(NTR7475

The Role of Childhood Trauma in Affective Stress Recovery in Early Psychosis: An Experience Sampling Study

Background and Hypotheses: Affective recovery, operationalized as the time needed for affect to return to baseline levels after daily stressors, may be a putative momentary representation of resilience. This study aimed to investigate affective recovery in positive and negative affect across subclinical and clinical stages of psychosis and whether this is associated with exposure to childhood trauma (sexual, physical, and emotional abuse). Study Design: We used survival analysis to predict the time-to-recovery from a daily event-related stressor in a pooled sample of 3 previously conducted experience sampling studies including 113 individuals with first-episode psychosis, 162 at-risk individuals, and 94 controls. Study Results: Negative affective recovery (ie, return to baseline following an increase in negative affect) was longer in individuals with first-episode psychosis compared with controls (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI; 1.03, 2.61], P = .04) and in at-risk individuals exposed to high vs low levels of emotional abuse (HR = 1.31, 95% CI [1.06, 1.62], P = .01). Positive affective recovery (ie, return to baseline following a decrease in positive affect) did not differ between groups and was not associated with childhood trauma. Conclusions: Our results give first indications that negative affective recovery may be a putative momentary representation of resilience across stages of psychosis and may be amplified in at-risk individuals with prior experiences of emotional abuse. Understanding how affective recovery contributes to the development of psychosis may help identify new targets for prevention and intervention to buffer risk or foster resilience in daily life

Strategies, processes, outcomes, and costs of implementing experience sampling-based monitoring in routine mental health care in four European countries:study protocol for the IMMERSE effectiveness-implementation study

BACKGROUND: Recent years have seen a growing interest in the use of digital tools for delivering person-centred mental health care. Experience Sampling Methodology (ESM), a structured diary technique for capturing moment-to-moment variation in experience and behaviour in service users' daily life, reflects a particularly promising avenue for implementing a person-centred approach. While there is evidence on the effectiveness of ESM-based monitoring, uptake in routine mental health care remains limited. The overarching aim of this hybrid effectiveness-implementation study is to investigate, in detail, reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation, and maintenance as well as contextual factors, processes, and costs of implementing ESM-based monitoring, reporting, and feedback into routine mental health care in four European countries (i.e., Belgium, Germany, Scotland, Slovakia).METHODS: In this hybrid effectiveness-implementation study, a parallel-group, assessor-blind, multi-centre cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) will be conducted, combined with a process and economic evaluation. In the cRCT, 24 clinical units (as the cluster and unit of randomization) at eight sites in four European countries will be randomly allocated using an unbalanced 2:1 ratio to one of two conditions: (a) the experimental condition, in which participants receive a Digital Mobile Mental Health intervention (DMMH) and other implementation strategies in addition to treatment as usual (TAU) or (b) the control condition, in which service users are provided with TAU. Outcome data in service users and clinicians will be collected at four time points: at baseline (t0), 2-month post-baseline (t1), 6-month post-baseline (t2), and 12-month post-baseline (t3). The primary outcome will be patient-reported service engagement assessed with the service attachment questionnaire at 2-month post-baseline. The process and economic evaluation will provide in-depth insights into in-vivo context-mechanism-outcome configurations and economic costs of the DMMH and other implementation strategies in routine care, respectively.DISCUSSION: If this trial provides evidence on reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation and maintenance of implementing ESM-based monitoring, reporting, and feedback, it will form the basis for establishing its public health impact and has significant potential to bridge the research-to-practice gap and contribute to swifter ecological translation of digital innovations to real-world delivery in routine mental health care.TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN15109760 (ISRCTN registry, date: 03/08/2022).</p

Measurement of adverse events in studies of digital health interventions for psychosis: guidance and recommendations based on a literature search and framework analysis of standard operating procedures

Background: Given the rapid expansion of research into digital health interventions (DHIs) for severe mental illness (SMI; eg, schizophrenia and other psychosis diagnoses), there is an emergent need for clear safety measures. Currently, measurement and reporting of adverse events (AEs) are inconsistent across studies. Therefore, an international network, iCharts, was assembled to systematically identify and refine a set of standard operating procedures (SOPs) for AE reporting in DHI studies for SMI. Design: The iCharts network comprised experts on DHIs for SMI from seven countries (United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany, Pakistan, Australia, United States, and China) and various professional backgrounds. Following a literature search, SOPs of AEs were obtained from authors of relevant studies, and from grey literature. Results: A thorough framework analysis of SOPs (n = 32) identified commonalities for best practice for certain domains, along with significant gaps in others; particularly around the classification of AEs during trials, and the provision of training/supervision for research staff in measuring and reporting AEs. Several areas which could lead to the observed inconsistencies in AE reporting and handling were also identified. Conclusions: The iCharts network developed best-practice guidelines and a practical resource for AE monitoring in DHI studies for psychosis, based on a systematic process which identified common features and evidence gaps. This work contributes to international efforts to standardize AE measurement and reporting in this emerging field, ensuring that safety aspects of DHIs for SMI are well-studied across the translational pathway, with monitoring systems set-up from the outset to support safe implementation in healthcare systems