A combined view on precipitation and temperature climatology and trends in the southern Andes of Peru

In the southern Peruvian Andes, communities are highly dependent on climatic conditions due to the mainly rain-fed agriculture and the importance of glaciers and snow melt as a freshwater resource. Longer-term trends and year-to-year variability of precipitation or temperature severely affect living conditions. This study evaluates seasonal precipitation and temperature climatologies and trends in the period 1965/66–2017/18 for the southern Peruvian Andes using quality-controlled and homogenized station data and new observational gridded data. In this region, precipitation exhibits a strong annual cycle with very dry winter months and most of the precipitation falling from spring to autumn. Spatially, a northeast–southwest gradient in austral spring is observed, related to an earlier start of the rainy season in the northeastern partof the study area. Seasonal variations of maximum temperature are weak withan annual maximum in austral spring, which is related to reduced cloud coverin austral spring compared to summer. On the contrary, minimum tempera-tures show larger seasonal variations, possibly enhanced through changes inlongwave incoming radiation following the precipitation cycle. Precipitationtrends since 1965 exhibit low spatial consistency except for austral summer,when in most of the study area increasing precipitation is observed, and in aus-tral spring, when stations in the central-western region of the study area regis-ter decreasing precipitation. All seasonal and annual trends in maximum temperature are larger than trends in minimum temperature. Maximum temperature exhibits strong trends in austral winter and spring, whereas minimum temperature trends are strongest in austral winter. We hypothesize, that these trends are related to precipitation changes, as decreasing (increasing) precipita-tion in spring (summer) may enhance maximum (minimum) temperature trends through changes in cloud cover. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), however, has modifying effects onto precipitation and temperature, and thereby leads to larger trends in maximum temperatures

Below Average Midsummer to Early Autumn Precipitation Evolved Into the Main Driver of Sudden Scots Pine Vitality Decline in the Swiss Rhône Valley

The vitality of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is declining since the 1990s in many European regions. This was mostly attributed to the occurrence of hotter droughts, other climatic changes and secondary biotic stressors. However, it is still not well understood which specific atmospheric trends and extremes caused the observed spatio-temporal dieback patterns. In the Swiss Rhône valley, we identified negative precipitation anomalies between midsummer and early autumn as the main driver of sudden vitality decline and dieback events. Whereas climate change from 1981 to 2018 did not lead to a reduced water input within this time of the year, the potential evapotranspiration strongly increased in spring and summer. This prolonged and intensified the period of low soil moisture between midsummer and autumn, making Scots pines critically dependent on substantial precipitation events which temporarily reduce the increased water stress. Thus, local climate characteristics (namely midsummer to early autumn precipitation minima) are decisive for the spatial occurrence of vitality decline events, as the lowest minima outline the most affected regions within the Swiss Rhône valley. Mortality events will most likely spread to larger areas and accelerate the decline of Scots pines at lower elevations, whereas higher altitudes may remain suitable Scots pine habitats. The results from our regional study are relevant on larger geographic scales because the same processes seem to play a key role in other European regions increasingly affected by Scots pine dieback events

Estimating Temperature Fluctuations in the Early Universe

A lagrangian for the $k-$ essence field is constructed for a constant scalar potential and its form determined when the scale factor was very small compared to the present epoch but very large compared to the inflationary epoch. This means that one is already in an expanding and flat universe. The form is similar to that of an oscillator with time-dependent frequency. Expansion is naturally built into the theory with the existence of growing classical solutions of the scale factor. The formalism allows one to estimate fluctuations of the temperature of the background radiation in these early stages (compared to the present epoch) of the universe. If the temperature at time $t_{a}$ is $T_{a}$ and at time $t_{b}$ the temperature is $T_{b}$ ($t_{b}>t_{a}$), then for small times, the probability for the logarithm of inverse temperature evolution can be estimated to be given by $$P(b,a)= |\langle ln~({1\over T_{b}}),t_{b}| ln~({1\over T_{a}}),t_{a}\rangle|^{2}$$ $$\approx\biggl({3m_{\mathrm Pl}^{2}\over \pi^{2} (t_{b}-t_{a})^{3}}\biggr) (ln~ T_{a})^{2}(ln~T_{b})^{2}\biggl(1 - 3\gamma (t_{a} + t_{b})\biggr)$$ where $0<\gamma<1$, $m_{\mathrm Pl}$ is the Planck mass and Planck's constant and the speed of light has been put equal to unity. There is the further possibility that a single scalar field may suffice for an inflationary scenario as well as the dark matter and dark energy realms.Comment: 8 pages, Revtex, title,abstract and format changed for journal publication,no change in basic results, clarifications and a figure added. Keywords: physics of the early universe,inflation, dark matter theory, dark energy theory. PACS: 95.35.+d ; 95.36.+x ; 98.80.Cq ; 98.80.-

Deviation From \Lambda CDM With Cosmic Strings Networks

In this work, we consider a network of cosmic strings to explain possible deviation from \Lambda CDM behaviour. We use different observational data to constrain the model and show that a small but non zero contribution from the string network is allowed by the observational data which can result in a reasonable departure from \Lambda CDM evolution. But by calculating the Bayesian Evidence, we show that the present data still strongly favour the concordance \Lambda CDM model irrespective of the choice of the prior.Comment: 15 Pages, Latex Style, 4 eps figures, Revised Version, Accepted for publication in European Physical Journal

The kk-essence scalar field in the context of Supernova Ia Observations

A $k$-essence scalar field model having (non canonical) Lagrangian of the form $L=-V(\phi)F(X)$ where $X=1/2g^{\mu\nu}\nabla_{\mu}\phi\nabla_{\nu}\phi$ with constant $V(\phi)$ is shown to be consistent with luminosity distance-redshift data observed for type Ia Supernova. For constant $V(\phi)$, $F(X)$ satisfies a scaling relation which is used to set up a differential equation involving the Hubble parameter $H$, the scale factor $a$ and the $k$-essence field $\phi$. $H$ and $a$ are extracted from SNe Ia data and using the differential equation the time dependence of the field $\phi$ is found to be: $\phi(t) \sim \lambda_0 + \lambda_1 t + \lambda_2 t^2$. The constants $\lambda_i$ have been determined. The time dependence is similar to that of the quintessence scalar field (having canonical kinetic energy) responsible for homogeneous inflation. Furthermore, the scaling relation and the obtained time dependence of the field $\phi$ is used to determine the $X$-dependence of the function $F(X)$.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, Late

Oral fexinidazole for stage 1 or early stage 2 African Trypanosoma brucei gambiense trypanosomiasis: a prospective, multicentre, open-label, cohort study

BACKGROUND: Staging and treatment of human African trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (g-HAT) required lumbar puncture to assess cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and intravenous drugs that cross the blood-brain barrier for late-stage infection. These procedures are inconvenient in rural health systems of disease-endemic countries. A pivotal study established fexinidazole as the first oral monotherapy to be effective against non-severe stage 2 g-HAT. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of fexinidazole in early g-HAT. METHODS: In this prospective, multicentre, open-label, single-arm cohort study, patients with stage 1 or early stage 2 g-HAT were recruited from eight treatment centres in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Primary inclusion criteria included being older than 15 years, being able to ingest at least one complete meal per day (or at least one sachet of Plumpy'Nut®), a Karnofsky score higher than 50, evidence of trypanosomes in the blood or lymph but no evidence of trypanosomes in the CSF, willingness to be admitted to hospital to receive treatment, having a permanent address, and being able to comply with the follow-up visit schedule. Exclusion criteria included severe malnutrition, inability to take medication orally, pregnant or breastfeeding women, any clinically important medical condition that could jeopardise patient safety or participation in the study, severely deteriorated general status, any contraindication to imidazole drugs, HAT treatment in the past 2 years, previous enrolment in the study or previous intake of fexinidazole, abnormalities on electrocardiogram that did not return to normal in pretreatment repeated assessments or were considered clinically important, QT interval corrected using Fridericia's formula of at least 450 ms, and patients not tested for malaria or not having received appropriate treatment for malaria or for soil-transmitted helminthiasis. Patients were classified into stage 1 or early stage 2 g-HAT groups following evidence of trypanosomes in the blood, lymph, and absence in CSF, and using white-blood-cell count in CSF. Patients received 1800 mg fexinidazole once per day on days 1-4 then 1200 mg fexinidazole on days 5-10. Patients were observed for approximately 19 months in total. Study participants were followed up on day 5 and day 8 during treatment, at end of treatment on day 11, at end of hospitalisation on days 11-18, at week 9 for a subset of patients, and after 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months. The primary endpoint was treatment success at 12 months. Safety was assessed through routine monitoring. Analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population. The acceptable success rate was defined as treatment efficacy in more than 80% of patients. This study is completed and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02169557). FINDINGS: Patients were enrolled between April 30, 2014, and April 25, 2017. 238 patients were recruited: 195 (82%) patients with stage 1 g-HAT and 43 (18%) with early stage 2 g-HAT. 189 (97%) of 195 patients with stage 1 g-HAT and 41 (95%) of 43 patients with early stage 2 g-HAT were finally included and completed the 10 day treatment period. Three patients with stage 1 g-HAT died after the 10 day treatment period and before the 12 month primary follow-up visit, considered as treatment failure and were withdrawn from the study. Treatment was effective at 12 months for 227 (99%) of 230 patients (95% CI 96·2-99·7): 186 (98%) of 189 patients (95·4-99·7) with stage 1 and 41 (100%) of 41 patients (91·4-100·0) with early stage 2, indicating that the primary study endpoint was met. No new safety issues were observed. The most frequent adverse events were headache and vomiting. In total, 214 (93%) of 230 patients had treatment-emergent adverse events, mainly common-terminology criteria for adverse events grades 1 to 3. None led to treatment discontinuation. INTERPRETATION: Fexinidazole is a valuable first-line treatment option in the early stages of g-HAT. FUNDING: Through the Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative: the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Republic and Canton of Geneva (Switzerland), the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (also known as DGIS; Netherlands), the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (also known as Norad; Norway), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (also known as BMBF) through KfW (Germany), the Brian Mercer Charitable Trust (UK), and other private foundations and individuals from the HAT campaign

Safety and efficacy of oral fexinidazole in children with gambiense human African trypanosomiasis: a multicentre, single-arm, open-label, phase 2-3 trial

BACKGROUND: Fexinidazole has been reported as an effective oral monotherapy against non-severe gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in a recent trial in adults. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of fexinidazole in children across all disease stages of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis. METHODS: We did a multicentre, single-arm, open-label, phase 2-3 trial at eight district hospitals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We recruited children with a Karnofsky score of more than 50, those aged 6 years to younger than 15 years, weighing 20 kg or more, and with confirmed gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (any stage). Children weighing 20 kg or more and less than 35 kg received oral fexinidazole of 1200 mg (two x 600 mg tablets) once per day for 4 days (days 1-4) followed by 600 mg (one x 600 mg tablet) once per day for 6 days (days 5-10). Children weighing 35 kg or more received oral fexinidazole of 1800 mg (three x 600 mg tablets) once per day for 4 days (days 1-4), followed by 1200 mg (two x 600 mg tablets) once per day for 6 days (days 5-10). The primary endpoint was fexinidazole treatment success rate 12 months after end of treatment. A rate greater than 80% was deemed acceptable and a target value of 92% was aimed for. Safety was assessed through routine monitoring. This study is completed and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02184689. FINDINGS: Between May 3, 2014, and Nov 22, 2016, we screened a total of 130 paediatric patients, of whom 125 (96%) received at least one dose of fexinidazole. All 125 patients (69 [55%] patients with stage 1, 19 [15%] with early stage 2, and 37 [30%] with late stage 2 gambiense human African trypanosomiasis) completed the 10-day treatment. Treatment success rate at 12 months was 97.6% (95% CI 93.1-99.5; 122 of 125 patients). The primary endpoint was met and the targeted value of 92% was exceeded. Treatment success at 12 months was elevated across all disease stages: 98.6% (95% CI 92.2-99.9; 68 of 69 patients) in stage 1, 94.7% (74.0-99.9; 18 of 19 patients) in early stage 2, and 97.3% (85.8-99.9; 36 of 37 patients) in late stage 2 gambiense human African trypanosomiasis. No new safety issues were observed beyond those found in adult trials. Overall, 116 (93%) of 125 patients reported 586 treatment-emergent adverse events, mainly mild or moderate. The most frequently reported treatment-emergent adverse events of interest during hospital admission were vomiting (86 [69%] of 125) and headache (41 [33%]). Seven (6%) of 125 patients had severe malaria, which was often accompanied by anaemia that was unrelated to fexinidazole. One patient died following dyspnoea and injury due to traumatic aggression 172 days after end of treatment, which was considered unrelated to fexinidazole or gambiense human African trypanosomiasis. INTERPRETATION: Oral fexinidazole is a safe and effective first-line treatment option across all gambiense human African trypanosomiasis disease stages in paediatric patients. FUNDING: Through the Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative: the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (USA), the Republic and Canton of Geneva (Switzerland), the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Netherlands), the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norway), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research through KfW (Germany), the Brian Mercer Charitable Trust (UK), and other private foundations and individuals from the human African trypanosomiasis campaign. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

Relative clustering and the joint halo occupation distribution of red-sequence and blue-cloud galaxies in COMBO-17

This paper studies the relative spatial distribution of red-sequence and blue-cloud galaxies, and their relation to the dark matter distribution in the COMBO-17 survey as function of scale down to z~1. We measure the 2nd-order auto- and cross-correlation functions of galaxy clustering and express the relative biasing by using aperture statistics. Also estimated is the relation between the galaxies and the dark matter distribution exploiting galaxy-galaxy lensing (GGL). All observables are further interpreted in terms of a halo model. To fully explain the galaxy clustering cross-correlation function with a halo model, we need to introduce a new parameter,R, that describes the statistical relation between numbers of red and blue galaxies within the same halo. We find that red and blue galaxies are clearly differently clustered, a significant evolution of the relative clustering with redshift was not found. There is evidence for a scale-dependence of relative biasing. The relative clustering, the GGL and, with some tension, the galaxy numbers can be explained consistently within a halo model. For the cross-correlation function one requires a HOD variance that becomes Poisson even for relatively small occupancy numbers. For our sample, this rules out with high confidence a "Poisson satellite" scenario as found in semi-analytical models. Red galaxies have to be concentrated towards the halo centre, either by a central red galaxy or by a concentration parameter above that for dark matter.The value of R depends on the presence or absence of central galaxies: If no central galaxies or only red central galaxies are allowed, R is consistent with zero, whereas a positive correlation $R=+0.5\pm0.2$ is needed if both blue and red galaxies can have central galaxies.[ABRIDGED]Comment: 30 pages, 13 figures, accepted by MNRAS, major changes: improved redshift distributions of samples, now comoving number densities of galaxy samples are estimated and fitted by halo-model, correction of wrong confidence limits in Table 2, new figure with Mb-magnitudes of sample

Cross-scanner and cross-protocol multi-shell diffusion MRI data harmonization: algorithms and result

Cross-scanner and cross-protocol variability of diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) data are known to be major obstacles in multi-site clinical studies since they limit the ability to aggregate dMRI data and derived measures. Computational algorithms that harmonize the data and minimize such variability are critical to reliably combine datasets acquired from different scanners and/or protocols, thus improving the statistical power and sensitivity of multi-site studies. Different computational approaches have been proposed to harmonize diffusion MRI data or remove scanner-specific differences. To date, these methods have mostly been developed for or evaluated on single b-value diffusion MRI data. In this work, we present the evaluation results of 19 algorithms that are developed to harmonize the cross-scanner and cross-protocol variability of multi-shell diffusion MRI using a benchmark database. The proposed algorithms rely on various signal representation approaches and computational tools, such as rotational invariant spherical harmonics, deep neural networks and hybrid biophysical and statistical approaches. The benchmark database consists of data acquired from the same subjects on two scanners with different maximum gradient strength (80 and 300 ​mT/m) and with two protocols. We evaluated the performance of these algorithms for mapping multi-shell diffusion MRI data across scanners and across protocols using several state-of-the-art imaging measures. The results show that data harmonization algorithms can reduce the cross-scanner and cross-protocol variabilities to a similar level as scan-rescan variability using the same scanner and protocol. In particular, the LinearRISH algorithm based on adaptive linear mapping of rotational invariant spherical harmonics features yields the lowest variability for our data in predicting the fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), mean kurtosis (MK) and the rotationally invariant spherical harmonic (RISH) features. But other algorithms, such as DIAMOND, SHResNet, DIQT, CMResNet show further improvement in harmonizing the return-to-origin probability (RTOP). The performance of different approaches provides useful guidelines on data harmonization in future multi-site studies