Genotypic Resistance Tests Sequences Reveal the Role of Marginalized Populations in HIV-1 Transmission in Switzerland.

Targeting hard-to-reach/marginalized populations is essential for preventing HIV-transmission. A unique opportunity to identify such populations in Switzerland is provided by a database of all genotypic-resistance-tests from Switzerland, including both sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and non-cohort sequences. A phylogenetic tree was built using 11,127 SHCS and 2,875 Swiss non-SHCS sequences. Demographics were imputed for non-SHCS patients using a phylogenetic proximity approach. Factors associated with non-cohort outbreaks were determined using logistic regression. Non-B subtype (univariable odds-ratio (OR): 1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8-2.1), female gender (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4-1.7), black ethnicity (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.7-2.1) and heterosexual transmission group (OR:1.8; 95% CI: 1.6-2.0), were all associated with underrepresentation in the SHCS. We found 344 purely non-SHCS transmission clusters, however, these outbreaks were small (median 2, maximum 7 patients) with a strong overlap with the SHCS'. 65% of non-SHCS sequences were part of clusters composed of >= 50% SHCS sequences. Our data suggests that marginalized-populations are underrepresented in the SHCS. However, the limited size of outbreaks among non-SHCS patients in-care implies that no major HIV outbreak in Switzerland was missed by the SHCS surveillance. This study demonstrates the potential of sequence data to assess and extend the scope of infectious-disease surveillance

Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis.

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42-0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%-17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data

No Effect of Pegylated Interferon-α on Total HIV-1 DNA Load in HIV-1/HCV Coinfected Patients.

Pegylated interferon-alpha (pIFN-α) is suggested to lower human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) DNA load in antiretroviral therapy (ART)-treated patients. We studied kinetics of HIV-1 DNA levels in 40 HIV-1/hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfected patients, treated with pIFN-α for HCV and categorized into 3 groups according to start of ART: chronic HIV-1 infection (n = 22), acute HIV-1 infection (n = 8), no-ART (n = 10). Total HIV-1 DNA levels in 247 peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples were stable before, during, and after pIFN-α treatment in all groups. Our results question the benefit of pIFN-α as an immunotherapeutic agent for reducing the HIV-1 reservoir

Dually Active HIV/HBV Antiretrovirals as Protection Against Incident Hepatitis B Infections: Potential for Prophylaxis.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has a detrimental effect on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) natural course, and HBV vaccination is less effective in the HIV infected. We examine the protective effect of dually active antiretroviral therapy (DAART) for HIV/HBV (tenofovir, lamivudine, and emtricitabine) in a large cohort encompassing heterosexuals, men who have sex with men, and intravenous drug users who are HIV infected yet susceptible to HBV, with comprehensive follow-up data about risky behavior and immunological profiles. We defined an incident HBV infection as the presence of any of HBV serological markers (hepatitis B surface antigen, anti-hepatitis B core antibodies, or HBV DNA) after a negative baseline test result for anti-hepatitis B core antibodies. Patients with positive anti-hepatitis B surface antigen serology were excluded. Cox proportional hazards models were used, with an incident case of HBV infection as the outcome variable. We analyzed 1716 eligible patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with 177 incident HBV cases. DAART was negatively associated with incident HBV infection (hazard ratio [HR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], .2-.6). This protective association was robust to adjustment (HR, 0.3; 95% CI, .2-.5) for condomless sex, square-root-transformed CD4 cell count, drug use, and patient demographics. Condomless sex (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.4-2.6), being a man who has sex with men (2.7; 1.7-4.2), and being an intravenous drug user (3.8; 2.4-6.1) were all associated with a higher hazard of contracting HBV. Our study suggests that DAART, independently of CD4 cell count and risky behavior, has a potentially strong public health impact, including pre-exposure prophylaxis of HBV coinfection in the HIV infected

Cohort-Derived Machine Learning Models for Individual Prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease in People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study.

It is unclear whether data-driven machine learning models, which are trained on large epidemiological cohorts, may improve prediction of comorbidities in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). In this proof-of-concept study, we included people living with HIV in the prospective Swiss HIV Cohort Study with a first estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 mL/minute/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2002. Our primary outcome was chronic kidney disease (CKD)-defined as confirmed decrease in eGFR ≤60 mL/minute/1.73 m2 over 3 months apart. We split the cohort data into a training set (80%), validation set (10%), and test set (10%), stratified for CKD status and follow-up length. Of 12 761 eligible individuals (median baseline eGFR, 103 mL/minute/1.73 m2), 1192 (9%) developed a CKD after a median of 8 years. We used 64 static and 502 time-changing variables: Across prediction horizons and algorithms and in contrast to expert-based standard models, most machine learning models achieved state-of-the-art predictive performances with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and precision recall curve ranging from 0.926 to 0.996 and from 0.631 to 0.956, respectively. In people living with HIV, we observed state-of-the-art performances in forecasting individual CKD onsets with different machine learning algorithms

Effectiveness of Transmitted Drug Resistance Testing before Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in HIV-Positive Individuals

Background:For people living with HIV, major guidelines in high-income countries recommend testing for transmitted drug resistance (TDR) to guide the choice of first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, individuals who fail a first-line regimen can now be switched to one of several effective regimens. Therefore, the virological and clinical benefit of TDR testing needs to be evaluated.Methods:We included individuals from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration who enrolled <6 months of HIV diagnosis between 2006 and 2015, were ART-naive, and had measured CD4 count and HIV-RNA. Follow-up started at the date when all inclusion criteria were first met (baseline). We compared 2 strategies: (1) TDR testing within 3 months of baseline versus (2) no TDR testing. We used inverse probability weighting to estimate the 5-year proportion and hazard ratios (HRs) of virological suppression (confirmed HIV-RNA <50 copies/mL), and of AIDS or death under both strategies.Results:Of 25,672 eligible individuals (82% males, 52% diagnosed in 2010 or later), 17,189 (67%) were tested for TDR within 3 months of baseline. Of these, 6% had intermediate- or high-level TDR to any antiretroviral drug. The estimated 5-year proportion virologically suppressed was 77% under TDR testing and 74% under no TDR testing; HR 1.06 (95% confidence interval: 1.03 to 1.19). The estimated 5-year risk of AIDS or death was 6% under both strategies; HR 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.95 to 1.12).Conclusions:TDR prevalence was low. Although TDR testing improved virological response, we found no evidence that it reduced the incidence of AIDS or death in first 5 years after diagnosis. © 2019 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved

Effect of immediate initiation of antiretroviral treatment on the risk of acquired HIV drug resistance

Objective: We estimated and compared the risk of clinically identified acquired drug resistance under immediate initiation [the currently recommended antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation strategy], initiation with CD4 + cell count less than 500 cells/μl and initiation with CD4 + cell count less than 350 cells/μl. Design: Cohort study based on routinely collected data from the HIV-CAUSAL collaboration. Methods: For each individual, baseline was the earliest time when all eligibility criteria (ART-naive, AIDS free, and others) were met after 1999. Acquired drug resistance was defined using the Stanford classification as resistance to any antiretroviral drug that was clinically identified at least 6 months after ART initiation. We used the parametric g-formula to adjust for time-varying (CD4 + cell count, HIV RNA, AIDS, ART regimen, and drug resistance testing) and baseline (calendar period, mode of acquisition, sex, age, geographical origin, ethnicity and cohort) characteristics. Results: In 50-981 eligible individuals, 10% had CD4 + cell count more than 500 cells/μl at baseline, and 63% initiated ART during follow-up. Of 2672 tests for acquired drug resistance, 794 found resistance. The estimated 7-year risk (95% confidence interval) of acquired drug resistance was 3.2% (2.8,3.5) for immediate initiation, 3.1% (2.7,3.3) for initiation with CD4 + cell count less than 500 cells/μl, and 2.8% (2.5,3.0) for initiation with CD4 + cell count less than 350 cells/μl. In analyses restricted to individuals with baseline in 2005-2015, the corresponding estimates were 1.9% (1.8, 2.5), 1.9% (1.7, 2.4), and 1.8% (1.7, 2.2). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the risk of acquired drug resistance is very low, especially in recent calendar periods, and that immediate ART initiation only slightly increases the risk. It is unlikely that drug resistance will jeopardize the proven benefits of immediate ART initiation. © 2018 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved

Tracing HIV-1 strains that imprint broadly neutralizing antibody responses.

Understanding the determinants of broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) evolution is crucial for the development of bNAb-based HIV vaccines <sup>1</sup> . Despite emerging information on cofactors that promote bNAb evolution in natural HIV-1 infections, in which the induction of bNAbs is genuinely rare <sup>2</sup> , information on the impact of the infecting virus strain on determining the breadth and specificity of the antibody responses to HIV-1 is lacking. Here we analyse the influence of viral antigens in shaping antibody responses in humans. We call the ability of a virus strain to induce similar antibody responses across different hosts its antibody-imprinting capacity, which from an evolutionary biology perspective corresponds to the viral heritability of the antibody responses. Analysis of 53 measured parameters of HIV-1-binding and neutralizing antibody responses in a cohort of 303 HIV-1 transmission pairs (individuals who harboured highly related HIV-1 strains and were putative direct transmission partners or members of an HIV-1 transmission chain) revealed that the effect of the infecting virus on the outcome of the bNAb response is moderate in magnitude but highly significant. We introduce the concept of bNAb-imprinting viruses and provide evidence for the existence of such viruses in a systematic screening of our cohort. The bNAb-imprinting capacity can be substantial, as indicated by a transmission pair with highly similar HIV-1 antibody responses and strong bNAb activity. Identification of viruses that have bNAb-imprinting capacities and their characterization may thus provide the potential to develop lead immunogens