Application of Single-Station Sigma and Site-Response Characterization in a Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis for a New Nuclear Site

Aleatory variability in ground-motion prediction, represented by the standard deviation (sigma) of a ground-motion prediction equation, exerts a very strong influence on the results of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). This is especially so at the low annual exceedance frequencies considered for nuclear facilities; in these cases, even small reductions in sigma can have a marked effect on the hazard estimates. Proper separation and quantification of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty can lead to defensible reductions in sigma. One such approach is the single-station sigma concept, which removes that part of sigma corresponding to repeatable site-specific effects. However, the site-to-site component must then be constrained by site-specific measurements or else modeled as epistemic uncertainty and incorporated into the modeling of site effects. The practical application of the single-station sigma concept, including the characterization of the dynamic properties of the site and the incorporation of site-response effects into the hazard calculations, is illustrated for a PSHA conducted at a rock site under consideration for the potential construction of a nuclear power plant.Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineerin

Statistical analysis of the Central-Europe Seismicity

The aim of this paper is to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of Central-Europe seismicity. Specifically, by using a non-parametric statistical approach, the proportional hazard model, leading to an empirical estimation of the hazard function, we provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanisms. The results indicate that the most conspic- uous characteristics of MW 4.0+ earthquakes is a temporal clustering lasting a couple of years. This suggests that the probability of occurrence increases immediately after a previous event. After a few years, the process becomes almost time independent. Furthermore, we investigate the cluster properties of the seismicity of Central-Europe, by comparing the obtained result with the one of synthetic catalogs generated by the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model, which previously have been successfully applied for short term clustering. Our results indicate that the ETAS is not well suited to describe the seismicity as a whole, while it is able to capture the features of the short- term behaviour. Remarkably, similar results have been previously found for Italy using a higher magnitude threshold

Ambient vibration measurements in the Southern Rhine Graben close to Basle

This study presents results of ambient noise measurements from temporary single station and small-scale array deployments in the northeast of Basle. H/V spectral ratios were determined along various profiles crossing the eastern masterfault of the Rhine Rift Valley and the adjacent sedimentary rift fills. The fundamental H/V peak frequencies are decreasing along the profile towards the eastern direction being consistent with the dip of the tertiary sediments within the rift. Using existing empirical relationships between H/V frequency peaks and the depth of the dominant seismic contrast, derived on basis of the ?/4-resonance hypothesis and a power law depth dependence of the S-wave velocity, we obtain thicknesses of the rift fill from about 155 m in the west to 280 m in the east. This is in agreement with previous studies. The array analysis of the ambient noise wavefield yielded a stable dispersion relation consistent with Rayleigh wave propagation velocities. We conclude that a significant amount of surface waves is contained in the observed wavefield. The computed ellipticity for fundamental mode Rayleigh waves for the velocity depth models used for the estimation of the sediment thicknesses is in agreement with the observed H/V spectra over a large frequency band

Seismic array analysis of Tornillo-like signals recorded in Tuscany

With the scientific purpose to monitor the micro-seismicity in the Central Apennines, we recently deployed in Eastern Tuscany (Casentino) a temporary 12 element seismic array, composed exclusively of 3-component seismometers. During the one month of registration we recorded an unexpected high rate of local micro-seismicity with up to 180 events per day

Cross spectral analysis of Swabian Jura (SW Germany) three-component microearthquake recordings

Similar three-component microearthquake records have been observed in the Swabian Jura (SW Germany) seismic zone for different source-receiver geometries. This data set is used to study the resolution power of cross spectral analysis techniques for the estimation of relative differential times as well as the applicability to velocity monitoring. The differential times are estimated in the frequency domain by assuming a linear-phase cross spectrum with the slope indicating the individual time difference. All earthquakes have been relocated with respect to a master event, using the relative P and S delay times from the cross spectral analysis as a measure of source mislocation. The overall location error is strongly dependent on the inital distance between master and studied event. For earthquakes initially located farther apart than approximately 1.5 km, the relocalization result in terms of total location error was poorer, whereas for events initially located closer than 1 km the precision of the relocalization was improved. The remaining residuals are of the order of 10 ms, which is approximately 3 times the digitization interval. In order to test the applicability of cross spectral analysis to velocity monitoring, synthetic data were used to model the influences of noise and source time function differences. The effect of additive white noise seems to be acceptable in cases where the S/N ratio is sufficiently high. Small changes in the shape of the source time function, however, were found to be of great influence to the differential time estimates. Variation of rise, sustain and decay times, which were negligible in the coherence spectrum, spuriously introduced phase differences which, in terms of delay times, easily reach the magnitude of the digitization interval. Thus, velocity monitoring using cross spectral analysis techniques seems to depend strongly on the equality - in contrast to similarity - of the source time functions of the events which are compared. The coherence spectrum is not a sufficient measure to detect all the significant differences.           ARK: https://n2t.net/ark:/88439/y035103 Permalink: https://geophysicsjournal.com/article/213 &nbsp

Association between Antibodies to the MR 67,000 Isoform of Glutamate Decarboxylase (GAD) and Type 1 (Insulin-Dependent) Diabetes Mellitus with Coexisting Autoimmune Polyendocrine Syndrome Type II

By using an immunoprecipitation assay, we analysed reactivity of autoantibodies to human recombinant GAD65 and GAD67 in sera from patients with autoimmune polyendocrine syndrome Type II (APS II) with and without Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus (IDDM) compared to patients with organ-specific autoimmunity. Overall antibodies to GAD65 were correlated with IDDM in all study groups, whereas GAD67 antibodies were associated with IDDM when APS II coexists. Antibodies to GAD65 and GAD67 were detected in 13 (44.8%) and 7 (24.1%) out of 29 APS II patients with IDDM, but in only 4 (13.8%) and 2 (6.9%) out of 29 APS II patients without IDDM, respectively (p < 0.05). In short-standing IDDM (< 1 year), antibodies to GAD67 were significantly more frequent in patients with APS II (5 of 9 [55.6%] subjects) compared to matched diabetic patients without coexisting polyendocrinopathy (1 of 18 [5.6%] subjects) (p < 0.02). The levels of GAD65 (142 ± 90 AU) and GAD67 antibodies (178 ± 95 AU) were significantly higher in patients with polyglandular disease than in patients with isolated IDDM (91 ± 85 AU and 93 ± 57 AU) (p < 0.02). Interestingly, all 11 GAD67 antibody positive subjects also had GAD65 antibodies (p < 0.0001), and in 10 of 11 anti-GAD67 positive sera the GAD67 antibodies could be blocked by either GAD67 or GAD65, suggesting the presence of cross-reactive autoantibodies. No correlation was observed between GAD antibodies and age, sex or any particular associated autoimmune disease, besides IDDM. GAD antibodies were present in only 1 of 6 (16.7%) patients with APS Type I, in 1 of 26 (3.9%) patients with autoimmune thyroid disease but in none of the patients with Addison's disease (n = 16), pernicious anaemia (n = 7) or normal controls (n = 50). Our data suggest distinct antibody specificities reactive to GAD isoforms in APS II and IDDM, which might reflect different mechanisms of autoimmune response in IDDM with coexisting autoimmune polyendocrine autoimmunity

Levo-α-acetylmethadol (LAAM) induced QTc-prolongation - results from a controlled clinical trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Due to potential proarrhythmic side-effects levo-α-Acetylmethadol (LAAM) is currently not available in EU countries as maintenance drug in the treatment of opiate addiction. However, recent studies and meta-analyses underline the clinical advantages of LAAM with respect to the reduction of heroin use. Thus a reappraisal of LAAM has been demanded. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the relative impact of LAAM on QTc-interval, as a measure of pro-arrhythmic risk, in comparison to methadone, the current standard in substitution therapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>ECG recordings were analysed within a randomized, controlled clinical trial evaluating the efficacy and tolerability of maintenance treatment with LAAM compared with racemic methadone. Recordings were done at two points: 1) during a run-in period with all patients on methadone and 2) 24 weeks after randomisation into methadone or LAAM treatment group. These ECG recordings were analysed with respect to QTc-values and QTc-dispersion. Mean values as well as individual changes compared to baseline parameters were evaluated. QTc-intervals were classified according to CPMP-guidelines.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Complete ECG data sets could be obtained in 53 patients (31 LAAM-group, 22 methadone-group). No clinical cardiac complications were observed in either group. After 24 weeks, patients receiving LAAM showed a significant increase in QTc-interval (0.409 s ± 0.022 s versus 0.418 s ± 0.028 s, p = 0.046), whereas no significant changes could be observed in patients remaining on methadone. There was no statistically significant change in QTc-dispersion in either group. More patients with borderline prolonged and prolonged QTc-intervals were observed in the LAAM than in the methadone treatment group (n = 7 vs. n = 1; p = 0.1).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this controlled trial LAAM induced QTc-prolongation in a higher degree than methadone. Given reports of severe arrhythmic events, careful ECG-monitoring is recommended under LAAM medication.</p

Insulin autoantibodies as determined by competitive radiobinding assay are positively correlated with impaired beta-cell function — The Ulm-Frankfurt population study

Out of a random population of 4208 non-diabetic pupils without a family history of Type I diabetes 44 (1.05%) individuals had islet cell antibody (ICA) levels greater or equal to 5 Juvenile Diabetes Foundation (JDF) units. 39 of these ICA-positives could be repeatedly tested for circulating insulin autoantibodies (CIAA) using a competitive radiobinding assay. The results were compared with the insulin responses in the intravenous glucose tolerance tests (IVGTT) and with HLA types. Six pupils were positive for CIAA. All of them had complement-fixing ICA, and 5 of them were HLA-DR4 positive. Three of the 6 showed a first-phase insulin response below the first percentile of normal controls. Our data indicate that in population-based studies CIAA can be considered as a high risk marker for impaired beta-cell function in non-diabetic ICA-positive individuals

Teaching Geophysics with a Vertical-Component Seismometer

Earthquakes are some of the more dramatic expressions of the dynamics of our planet. The sudden release of stress built up slowly by tectonic or volcanic processes often has far-reaching consequences, and can be measured (in classrooms) around the world. This is one reason why designing and building seismometers has been a popular activity,1,2 and why different versions of “Seismometer in Schools” projects thrive in the United States, Australia, and Europe. We present a cheap, robust, and easy-to-build seismometer—called the TC1 —to measure seismic displacements in the vertical direction. Its components are easy to obtain and assemble, yet the resulting instrument is accurate enough to record earthquakes from around the globe. The parts list and building instructions of the TC1 seismometer are freely available online. Alternatively, a complete kit can be purchased for around US$300. Assembling the system naturally introduces students to a number of concepts in physics and engineering, while upon completion seismic recordings trigger discussions about the dynamics and internal structure of the Earth. The discussions are fostered by service learning and shared in the network of TC1s called the Z-NET