Reef Degradation and Tourism: The macroeconomic costs of climate change on Bonaire

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of climate-induced reef degradation for Bonaire. Bonaire’s coral reefs progressively face the unavoidable reality of climate change, with its effects increasing in severity. Degradation of the island’s reef ecosystems may affect annual tourism arrivals as the reefs form one of the main attractions for visitors to Bonaire. Consequently, the industries that rely on tourist expenditures will suffer and thus the local economy. Coral reef-based tourism creates a unique opportunity to investigate the impacts of global warming on the macro¬economic performance of Bonaire. This paper employs the emission scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 of the AR6 IPCC 2021 to study the effects of coral reef degradation on the social carrying capacity of the coral reefs. Subsequently, the potential effects of reduced dive tourism and the induced effects of a change in tourism demand are translated into changes in sectoral outputs by employing input-output analysis. Coral reef degradation is expected under all scenarios, except the SSP1-1.9 scenario where a slight recovery of coral reefs is possible. This study finds a contraction in GDP between 25 USDm and 173 USDm by 2050 (between 2 to 18 percent of GDP in 2050), depending on the applied climate scenario. Moreover, a tourism income multiplier of 0.85x is found, which indicates a strong interlinkage between tourism income and the local economy, as from every dollar of tourism income 85% enters the local economy. This indicates that any losses in tourism demand will significantly result in macroeconomic damages for Bonaire. It can thus be expected that climate change will have a substantial impact on coral reefs as a vital tourism asset on Bonaire, with more extreme emission scenarios leading to stronger negative effects on the local economy

Linking ecosystem services and the Sustainable Development Goals in Small Island Developing States: the case of Aruba

The economy and well-being in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and other Subnational Island Jurisdictions (SNIJ) highly rely on marine and coastal ecosystem services (ESS). Moreover, SIDS and SNIJ share common challenges in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Building a fact-based solution to demonstrate the link between ESS and SDGs is essential for nature conservation and sustainable development in SIDS and SNIJ. In this study, we developed a 5-step approach to capture the contribution of ESS to the achievement of SDGs in Aruba by means of a shortlist of indicators, with the aim to provide information for optimal policy investments to implement the Aruba 2030 roadmap. The results numerically and spatially demonstrate the contribution of fisheries, nature-based tourism and local cultural recreational ESS to achieve SDG targets 14.7 (increase SIDS' economic benefits from sustainable use of marine resources), 8.9 (devise and implement policies to promote sustainable tourism) and 3.4 (promote mental health and well-being); and how investing in these key ESS could lead to multiplying co-benefits for other SDGs. This paper also discusses how the 5-step approach and the outcomes can be used to assist other SIDS and SNIJ in their ambitions to meet the SDGs

Trauma surgery by general surgeons: Still an option for proximal femoral fractures?

Introduction Surgery for proximal femoral fractures in the Netherlands is performed by trauma surgeons, general surgeons and orthopaedic surgeons. The aim of this study was to assess whether there is a difference in outcome for patients with proximal femoral fractures operated by trauma surgeons versus general surgeons. Secondly, the relation between hospital and surgeon volume and postoperative complications was explored. Methods Patients of 18 years and older were included if operated for a proximal femoral fracture by a trauma surgeon or a general surgeon in two academic, eight teaching and two non-teaching hospitals in the Netherlands from January 2010 until December 2013. The combined endpoint was defined as reoperation or surgical site infection. Multivariate analysis was used to adjust for patient and fracture characteristics and hospital and surgeon volume. Categories for hospital volume were >170/year (high volume), 96–170/year (medium volume) and <96/year (low volume). Results In 4552 included patients 2382 (52.3%) had surgery by a trauma surgeon. Postoperative complications occurred in 276 (11.6%) patients operated by a trauma surgeon and in 258 (11.9%) operated by a general surgeon (p = 0.751). When considering confounders in a multivariate analysis, surgery by trauma surgeons was associated with less postoperative complications (OR 0.746; 95%CI 0.580–0.958; p = 0.022). Surgery in high volume hospitals was also associated with less complications (OR 0.997; 95%CI 0.995–0.999; p = 0.012). Surgeon volume was not associated with complications (OR 1.008; 95%CI 0.997–1.018; p = 0.175). Conclusion Surgery by trauma surgeons and high hospital volume are associated with less reoperations and surgical site infections for patients with proximal femoral fractures

The Impacts of Climate Change on Bonaire

Small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their fragile ecosystems, small economies, and often extensive, low-lying coastal areas. Therefore, small islands, such as present in the Caribbean Netherlands, are expected to suffer excessively from rising temperatures, changes in precipitation, sea-level rise, coral bleaching, cyclones, droughts and floods. Despite this widespread conviction, scientific evidence of these effects in the Caribbean Netherlands is scarce, and as a result, limited adaptation strategies are developed or implemented by local and Dutch governments. In this study, an analysis is conducted assessing the impacts of climate change for the island of Bonaire. Given the uncertainty regarding the actual level of climate change in the future, four universally recognised scenarios are simulated, ranging from an optimistic scenario “SSP1-1.9” (corresponding to a mean temperature rise of 1.4°C at the end of the 21st century relative to pre-industrial levels), which assumes climate change will modestly increase relative to current levels, to a pessimistic scenario “SSP5-8.5” (corresponding to a mean temperature rise of 4.4°C at the end of the 21st century relative to pre-industrial levels), which suggests very high levels of climate change. Impacts are measured and reported at different moments in time, mainly looking at the years 2050 and 2150, representing short-term and long-term effects of climate change, respectively. A mix of methods from various scientific disciplines are used to estimate the impacts of climate change, including climate and flood models, ecological-economic models, as well as social-science methods such as social media analysis, participatory mapping and key-informant interviews. Although the sub-components of the study are systematically aligned and integrated, four topics can be distinguished: the estimation of the biophysical impacts, the modelling of economic effects, the identification of socio-cultural effects, and the exploration for potential adaptation options